Re: Liberals end year with national polling lead

In article <[email protected]>,
brew noser  <[email protected]> wrote:
>https://i.pinimg.com/originals/86/32/27/86322761a7dc24178f319cc4afc0a353.gif
>___________________________
>CBC News · Posted: Dec 18, 2020 Éric Grenier
>
>Liberals end year with national polling lead as opposition parties
>struggle to gain ground
>
>Polls suggest the Conservatives, NDP and Bloc have about as much support
>as they did a year ago
>
>
>If an election were held today, the Liberals almost certainly would win
>it — and perhaps capture a majority of the seats up for grabs, too.
>
>What a difference a year makes.
>
>With 2020 coming to a close, the Liberal Party is the only federal party
>in a much better position than it was 12 months ago. According to the
>CBC's Canada Poll Tracker, an aggregation of all publicly available
>polling data, the Liberals are up 4.2 percentage points since December
>2019. The Conservatives, New Democrats and Bloc Québécois have hardly
>budged, while the Greens are down nearly three points.
>
>Nationwide, Justin Trudeau's Liberals lead with 35.7 per cent support,
>compared to 31 per cent for Erin O'Toole's Conservatives. The NDP under
>Jagmeet Singh trails at 18.3 per cent, followed by the Bloc at 6.7 per
>cent and the Greens at 5.4 per cent.
>
>A year ago, the Liberals held only a narrow 0.5-point lead over the
>Conservatives and were solidly in minority territory.
>
>But today's numbers would deliver around 167 seats to the Liberals, with
>about 111 seats going to the Conservatives, 32 to the Bloc, 27 to the
>NDP and one to the Greens.
>
>That doesn't differ much from the current standings in the House of
>Commons — but it does put the Liberals tantalizingly close to the
>170-seat mark needed for a majority government.
>Liberals up in every region of the country
>
>The trend line for the Liberals has been very steady over the last few
>months, but it was a roller-coaster year for the party before that. The
>Liberals were neck-and-neck with the Conservatives for the first several
>months of 2020 before their support soared in the early days of the
>pandemic.
>
>At its peak in early June, the party reached nearly 41 per cent support
>in the Poll Tracker. The WE Charity controversy, however, sapped Liberal
>strength. The Liberals dropped to around 35 to 36 per cent support
>through to September. They have been there ever since.
>
>But the Liberals are still better off than they were 12 months ago. Now,
>by comparison, they have more support in every part of the country. They
>have seen modest increases of three points in Ontario and the Prairies
>(Manitoba and Saskatchewan) and four points in Atlantic Canada. They are
>also up about five points in Quebec.
>
>The biggest shifts, however, have been in Western Canada. The Liberals
>now have 33 per cent support in British Columbia, a gain of seven points
>over December 2019. The Liberals are also up nine points in Alberta, but
>that still puts them 30 points behind the Conservatives.
>
>The bump in B.C. is the most consequential in terms of seats. The Poll
>Tracker estimates the Liberals could win 12 more seats nationwide than
>they were projected to win in December 2019, and that half of those
>gains would come from B.C.
>
>But when it comes to winning a federal election, Ontario makes the
>difference. The Liberals haven't given up their lead in the province
>since the last election and are still nearly 10 points ahead of the
>Conservatives. Along with Quebec and Atlantic Canada, that puts about
>140 seats in the Liberal column before they even get to Manitoba —
>more than enough to secure a re-elected minority government.
>
>The Liberals have benefited from Trudeau's improved personal ratings.
>The latest poll by Research Co. gives Trudeau a net +15 approval rating.
>In the polling firm's final survey before the 2019 federal election,
>Trudeau was -13.
>
>Conservatives haven't made up any ground
>
>With the exception of Alberta, the polls do not suggest that Liberal
>gains have come at the expense of the Conservatives. Overall, the
>Conservative Party of Canada is exactly where it was 12 months ago.
>
>But that's not a good thing for O'Toole, since the Conservatives would
>probably have lost an election held 12 months ago.
>
>Since December 2019, the party's support has shifted by two points or
>less everywhere but Alberta and Atlantic Canada. The Conservatives have
>gained four points in Atlantic Canada but still trail the Liberals there
>by about 19 points. In Alberta, the Conservatives have lost eight
>points.
>
>Support for the Conservatives is still largely concentrated in Western
>Canada. The party has 53 per cent support in Alberta and 46 per cent
>support in the Prairies, with significantly more support in Saskatchewan
>than in Manitoba. Some polls even suggest that Saskatchewan has
>supplanted Alberta as the Conservatives' best provincial stronghold.
>
>But a recent Probe Research poll suggests the Conservatives are sliding
>in Manitoba. The poll put the Conservatives down eight points in the
>province compared to the last election, awarding the Liberals a 12-point
>lead in Winnipeg — a city the Liberals carried by only two points in
>2019.
>
>O'Toole still has a lot of work to do to get the Conservatives
>competitive with the Liberals in key battlegrounds. The party is now in
>third place in British Columbia. One recent poll suggests the
>Conservatives still trail the Liberals by a significant margin in the
>Greater Toronto Area, where O'Toole has his seat.
>
>In Quebec, the Conservative party has only 17 per cent support —
>virtually unchanged from their performance in 2019. While Léger finds
>the Conservatives have an eight-point lead in and around Quebec City,
>they are still well behind in third place among francophones across the
>province.
>
>Positive trend for the NDP in B.C.
>
>Though the polls suggest Singh's NDP hasn't made a big move over the
>last 12 months, the party is in a marginally better position in some
>parts of the country. The New Democrats are up two points in B.C. and
>Alberta and three points in the Prairies, though they are a bit further
>back in Quebec and Atlantic Canada.
>
>A number of recent surveys have been more promising for the NDP,
>however. The party has scored between 19 and 23 per cent in five of the
>last six national surveys, and has been first or second in 13 of 17
>polls conducted in B.C. since the end of October.
>
>This bump coincides with the B.C. NDP's provincial election victory on
>Oct. 24 — which might be no accident. It's difficult to know for
>certain whether poll respondents in British Columbia are separating the
>provincial and federal parties in their minds, which puts into question
>the apparent gains for the federal NDP.
>
>But there is some indication the federal NDP might be getting a real
>boost. According to Research Co., Singh's personal approval ratings are
>significantly higher in B.C. than in any other part of the country, and
>better than they were in September.
>
>Bloc taking seats off the table in Quebec, but not making gains
>
>Yves-François Blanchet has successfully made the Bloc Québécois a
>factor in federal politics again, but he has not made more progress
>since the last election.
>
>In Quebec, the party has just under 30 per cent support in the Poll
>Tracker. That's hardly changed since 2019, when the Bloc captured 32.5
>per cent of the vote and 32 seats. Holding those 32 seats is still the
>most likely outcome of another election.
>
>According to Léger, the Bloc is the first choice of francophone
>Quebecers, with 38 per cent support. But they only hold a five-point
>lead over the Liberals outside of Greater Montreal (where they trailed
>the Liberals by 11 points) and the Quebec City region (where they trail
>the Conservatives).
>
>Keeping their seats away from the other parties does increase the odds
>of a minority government, which gives the Bloc influence in the House of
>Commons. But to keep that influence in Ottawa, the Bloc might need to
>win more seats away from the Liberals to compensate for gains Trudeau's
>party could make in the rest of the country.
>
>No Annamie Paul honeymoon as the Greens fall back
>
>The Greens seem to be the party hurt most by the political upheaval of
>the pandemic. Down 2.6 points nationwide since December 2019, the
>Greens' slide has been even steeper in the two areas of the country
>where they have seats: B.C. and Atlantic Canada.
>
>The Greens have lost five points in both regions, dropping them to about
>eight per cent. That could put some of their seats in danger — and
>with just three seats, they can't afford to lose one.
>
>In the job since the beginning of October, Paul is the newest leader on
>the block. Without a seat or recognized party status in the House of
>Commons, it will not be easy for Paul to increase her profile.
>
>
>So it could be hard going for the Greens in the polls in 2021. The party
>needs to hope that the brighter spotlight of an election campaign will
>give it a boost. One problem for the Greens, however, is that the party
>has tended to poll best between election campaigns, not during them.
>
>How long that period between votes will last is anyone's guess. In 2021,
>very few Canadians might want to dive into an election campaign while
>they remain focused on COVID-19 and vaccinations. Considering where the
>polls stand as 2020 comes to a merciful close, the Liberals appear to be
>the only people with an incentive to take that plunge.

With O'Toole and his comments about Residential schools ...
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