Re: "The Gulf of America"

On 1/24/25 10:18 PM, Baxter wrote:
> Skeeter <[email protected]> wrote:
>> Baxter wrote:
>>>...
>>> Why?  To cause an Economic Depression?!  That's what happened before
>>> - overproduction, leading to layoffs, leading to nobody having money
>>> to buy anything.
>>
>> I got money. Why don't you get a better job?
> 
> A lot of people have money now - but they won't 4 years from now.

Unfortunately, this "screw you, I got mine" attitude is not only quite 
unhealthy & bad for the country, but it is screamed the loudest by those 
least competent to address the economy and their own self-interests.

Case in point, if one will still be financially secure in the future is 
a forward looking requirement, so ignore at one's own peril the fact 
that in just the past four months (eg, since the election) an indicator 
for future inflation has already ticked up by (2.52 - 1.86) = +0.66%.

FYI, this is the FRED's 5-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate (T5YIE):

<https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T5YIE>

The FRED definition is:

"The breakeven inflation rate represents a measure of expected inflation 
derived from 5-Year Treasury Constant Maturity Securities (BC_5YEAR) and 
5-Year Treasury Inflation-Indexed Constant Maturity Securities 
(TC_5YEAR). The latest value implies what market participants expect 
inflation to be in the next 5 years, on average."

In a nutshell, this is what the Open Market has assessed their inflation 
risk to be, as quantified by how they've  "voted with their wallets" on 
the likes of their bids at US Treasury Bond auctions:  they're investing 
based on their expectation that US inflation over 2025-2030 is going to 
run hotter than expected four months ago by an average of +0.66%/yr.

Now to a layman, +0.66%/yr might not sound like a lot, but its the 
average per year times five years, and that 0.66/1.86 is a +35% change.

-hh