Re: Biden-voting counties equal 70% of America's economy.
VOX <[email protected]>
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wrote > Editor's Note: > > This post was updated on February 26, 2021 with new data. > > > Biden-voting counties equal 70% of Americas economy. > > > Even with a new president and political party soon in charge of the > White House, the nations economic standoff continues. Notwithstanding > President-elect Joe Bidens solid popular vote victory, last weeks > election failed to deliver the kind of transformative reorientation of > the nations political-economic map that Democrats (and some > Republicans) had hoped for. The data confirms that the election > sharpened the striking geographic divide between red and blue America, > instead of dispelling it. > > Most notably, the stark economic rift that Brookings Metro documented > after Donald Trumps shocking 2016 victory has grown even wider. In > 2016, we wrote that the 2,584 counties that Trump won generated just 36% > of the countrys economic output, whereas the 472 counties Hillary > Clinton carried equated to almost two-thirds of the nations aggregate > economy. > > A similar analysis for last weeks election shows these trends > continuing, albeit with a different political outcome. This time, > Bidens winning base in 509 counties encompasses fully 71% of Americas > economic activity, while Trumps losing base of 2,547 counties > represents just 29% of the economy. (Votes are still outstanding in 28 > mostly low-output counties, and this piece will be updated as new data > is reported.) Table 1. Candidates counties won and share of GDP in 2016 > and 2020 Year Candidate Counties won Total votes > Aggregate share of US GDP > > > 2016 Hillary Clinton 472 65,853,625 64% > Donald Trump 2,584 62,985,106 36% > 2020 Joe Biden 520 81,283,098 71% > Donald Trump 2,564 74,222,958 29% > > Note: 2020 figures reflect unofficial results from 99% of counties. > Figures for 2020 represent results from 100% of counties for which 2018 > GDP data are available. Some county equivalents have been consolidated > into counties to match the geography of BEA GDP data. > > Source: Brookings analysis of data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, > Dave Leips Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, The New York Times, > and Moodys Analytics > > Fig1 > > So, while the elections winner may have changed, the nations economic > geography remains rigidly divided. Biden captured virtually all of the > counties with the biggest economies in the country (depicted by the > largest blue tiles in the nearby graphic), including flipping the few > that Clinton did not win in 2016. > > By contrast, Trump won thousands of counties in small-town and rural > communities with correspondingly tiny economies (depicted by the red > tiles). Bidens counties tended to be far more diverse, educated, and > white-collar professional, with their aggregate nonwhite and college- > educated shares of the economy running to 35% and 36%, respectively, > compared to 16% and 25% in counties that voted for Trump. > > In short, 2020s map continues to reflect a striking split between the > large, dense, metropolitan counties that voted Democratic and the mostly > exurban, small-town, or rural counties that voted Republican. Blue and > red America reflect two very different economies: one oriented to > diverse, often college-educated workers in professional and digital > services occupations, and the other whiter, less-educated, and more > dependent on traditional industries. > > With that said, it would be wrong to describe this as a completely > static map. While the metropolitan/ nonmetropolitan dichotomy remained > starkly persistent, 2020 election returns produced nontrivial movement, > as Biden added modestly to the Democrats metropolitan base and > significantly to its vote base. Most notably, Biden flipped six of the > nations 100 highest-output counties, strengthening the link between > these core economic hubs and the Democratic Party. More specifically, > Biden flipped half of the 10 most economically significant counties > Trump won in 2016, including Phoenixs Maricopa County; Dallas-Fort > Worths Tarrant County; Jacksonville, Fla.s Duval County; Morris County > in New Jersey; and Tampa- St. Petersburg, Fla.s Pinellas County. > > Altogether, those losses shaved about 3 percentage points worth of GDP > off the economic base of Trump counties. That reduced the share of the > nations GDP produced by Republican-voting counties to a new low in > recent times. > > Why does this matter? This economic rift that persists in dividing the > nation is a problem because it underscores the near-certainty of both > continued clashes between the political parties and continued alienation > and misunderstandings. > > To start with, the 2020s sharpened economic divide forecasts gridlock > in Congress and between the White House and Senate on the most important > issues of economic policy. The problemas we have witnessed over the > past decade and are likely to continue seeingis not only that Democrats > and Republicans disagree on issues of culture, identity, and power, but > that they represent radically different swaths of the economy. Democrats > represent voters who overwhelmingly reside in the nations diverse > economic centers, and thus tend to prioritize housing affordability, an > improved social safety net, transportation infrastructure, and racial > justice. Jobs in blue America also disproportionately rely on national > R&D investment, technology leadership, and services exports. > > By contrast, Republicans represent an economic base situated in the > nations struggling small towns and rural areas. Prosperity there > remains out of reach for many, and the party sees no reason to consider > the priorities and needs of the nations metropolitan centers. That is > not a scenario for economic consensus or achievement. > > At the same time, the results from last weeks election likely > underscore fundamental problems of economic alienation and estrangement. > Specifically, Trumps anti-establishment appeal suggests that a sizable > portion of the country continues to feel little connection to the > nations core economic enterprises, and chose to channel that animosity > into a candidate who promised not to build up all parts of the country, > but rather to vilify groups who didnt resemble his base. > > If this pattern continueswith one party aiming to confront the > challenges at top of mind for a majority of Americans, and the other > continuing to stoke the hostility and indignation held by a significant > minorityit will be a recipe not only for more gridlock and ineffective > governance, but also for economic harm to nearly all people and places. > In light of the desperate need for a broad, historic recovery from the > economic damage of the COVID-19 pandemic, a continuation of the patterns > weve seen play out over the past decade would be a particularly > unsustainable situation for Americans in communities of all sizes. > > > https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2020/11/09/biden-voting- > counties-equal-70-of-americas-economy-what-does-this-mean-for-the- nations > - political-economic-divide/ > We know who the real commies are. The Trumplings.