Re: Elon Musk says we're already in a recession that could last until spring 2024, and only the strong will survive

On 10/22/22 10:17 PM, Leroy N. Soetoro wrote:
> https://fortune.com/2022/10/21/longest-recession-spring-2024-elon-musk-
> silver-lining-global-financial-crisis-federal-reserve-company-
> bankruptcies/?itm_source=parsely-api
> 
> The world could be facing the longest recession it has seen since the
> global financial crisis over a decade ago, according to Tesla and SpaceX
> CEO Elon Musk.
> 
> Asked to predict the length of a contraction in economic activity, the
> world’s richest and most successful entrepreneur responded on Thursday:
> “probably until spring of ’24.”
> 
> This would set the U.S. gross domestic product on course to shrink for a
> period longer than the 18-month recession of the global financial crisis,
> which lasted from December 2007 to June 2009.
> 
> Painful but necessary
> While these bouts are painful, Musk indicated they do serve the valuable
> purpose of shaking out bad business ideas by cleansing the market of so-
> called malinvestments.
> 
> Such poor investments gradually build in the system during boom times, as
> capital chases increasingly marginal profits until the incremental returns
> no longer justify the risk.
> 
> A key element factoring into investor calculations is the cost of money,
> which is set by policymakers at the world’s central banks. Until its
> recent shift to rate rises, the largest central bank—the U.S. Federal
> Reserve—had its foot on the accelerator pedal in an effort to suspend the
> normal dips of the economic cycle.
> 
> It is no accident then that ever since June 2009 the U.S. economy has
> contracted only once, for two short months, according to the National
> Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), the government agency that declares
> the official start and end dates of a recession.
> 
> Ever since the global financial crisis, policymakers have pumped
> unprecedented stimulus into the system to prevent a recession, mainly in
> form of trillions of dollars of freshly created money but also through
> fiscal measures such as corporate tax cuts and pandemic checks.
> 
> In such a cheap money environment, investors have been rewarded for
> withdrawing their savings and putting the money to work by backing new
> startups that promise to solve major social problems such as Theranos and
> Nikola Corp., or have innovative ideas like Juicero and Celsius.
> 
> It’s these same kinds of companies that invariably suffer when cheap money
> dries up.
> 
> Bill comes due
> Noninflationary economic growth is largely a function of productivity, and
> cannot be achieved through sustained money printing (although “modern
> monetary theory”—until recently fashionable in some circles—did attempt to
> argue there was such a thing as a free lunch).
> 
> Eventually the bill comes due, triggering a wave of insolvencies as weak
> managers run out of investors willing to finance their business plans.
> 
> “Recessions do have a silver lining in that companies that shouldn’t exist
> stop existing,” wrote Musk.
> 
> Experts believe that point is upon us. After offering markets a buffet of
> nonstop cheap money, the Federal Reserve has now been forced into an
> abrupt reversal to cool off an overheating economy.
> 
> Less than a week ago, the newest winner of the Nobel Prize in economics,
> Douglas Diamond, told Fortune that the U.S. central bank held rates “too
> low for too long” and now risked a crash.
> 
> This year alone, the central bank hiked rates by three full percentage
> points, dramatically affecting asset prices for everything from stocks and
> housing to cryptocurrencies. As recently as the start of March, when
> policymakers knew inflation was running at 8%, the Fed was still expanding
> its balance sheet and with it the money supply.
> 
> Elon Musk himself recently expressed his disdain for the Fed, agreeing
> with Wharton finance professor Jeremy Siegel, who blasted Fed policymakers
> for making the biggest mistake in the institution’s 110-year history.
> 
> “Siegel is obviously correct,” said Musk.
> 
> Ironically one of those companies that might not have survived is Musk’s
> own. The CEO admitted back at the height of the stock market bubble that
> Tesla was “about a month” away from bankruptcy. The prime beneficiary of
> the 2020 pandemic rally might not have survived had it not been for the
> Fed’s decade-long period of ultralow interest rates and monetary stimulus.
> 
> 
2024 doesn't seem that long and recession doesn't seem that bad....


But it will be 2024 before we get rid of the Democrats in the White 
House.... and it won't be an easy or quick recovery. While Musk seems 
pretty bright for the most part, I tend to think he's hoping for the 
best. But if you want to get closer to reality, pick a point between my 
worst case scenario of much deeper and at least a decade of real 
Depression and possibly two decades of really deep depression.

The problem is the politics NOT the American dream, and given we have 2 
more years of falling off the cliff guaranteed before we can even begin 
a turn around and hope for the end of this Depression to end it looks 
far more likely that that two will turn into another 8 years of trying 
to dig out of the hole the Democrat dropped us into.

It can easily take two terms of a really good President and a Congress 
working with the President to get to a point where things get better NOT 
worse.  The problem being that won't happen this election and the next 
election two years from now would be the start of the correction at the 
earliest but that's still unlikely which means that the earliest start 
of a correction will be 4 years from now and that put's us in a box that 
will take 4 years to 8 years of a Congress and Executive working to pull 
us out of a 4 to 8 year deep depression.

And that can't happen without cutting the size and cost of the 
Government and stopping the printing of money that has no value and 
causes inflation. Which means the DEEP STATE and/or Shadow Government 
will have to lose this civil war between the Government and WE THE 
PEOPLE.  If you can't win that war and defeat the apparent unlimited 
power of the Government there will never be an end to the DEPRESSION.

The Government is now BLEEDING THE ECONOMY of 20% of the yearly GDP at a 
time when the GDP isn't growing and is stagnant and the Government had 
to spend money they can't get form a direct tax so they printed 
COUNTERFEIT MONEY AND THEN BORROWED IT, yes it's FRAUD and most people 
intuitively know it's fraud.  And that's why we can't be out of this 
Depression of Stagnation and Inflation, the government will print more 
money and Inflation will grow even as the GDP remains Stagnant and so we 
are in the cycle of going from Stagnation to Inflation and back to the 
same thing again and again... as the cycles go deeper and more quickly 
from Stagnation to inflation, until it breaks the economic system and 
then bang... it's deep deep depression with no money and no way for the 
Keynesian government lap-dogs to inflate their way out with their 
wasteful spending.

The problem is that they spend and waste the money rather then that 
money going to where it will work best, and where it works best is where 
it is in the hands of the people that created the wealth and will use it 
to create more wealth which in turn creates more jobs and opportunities 
for other people with good ideas on how to grow their own wealth...  and 
that will expand and expand.

While Government does the opposite they throw wealth out like candy to 
crowd an after that the sugar high (inflation) there is a price to pay 
and it's that all the candy is gone and what's left is wasted wealth 
that will not grow the person had that candy money been spent by the 
responsible people who build the wealth of the NATION, Government 
doesn't build a NATION'S wealth, Government is a parasite that feeds off 
of a NATION'S wealth creators.



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-That's Karma-

*IF YOU'RE READING THIS YOU ARE A SURVIVOR*
*The first rule of SURVIVAL CLUB* is we talk about it, we hate 
censorship. Never trust what Democrats or Marxists tell you. Make them 
prove it with actual verifiable facts and science. And if you didn't 
find the duplicitous lies in what the Marxist-Democrats told you then 
you didn't dig deep enough. The *Gruber* *Doctrine* is the 
Marxist-Democrat plan that says it's "to the Democrats advantage to have 
a lack of transparency and then lie about everything".
https://rumble.com/vkt8ld-call-it-the-stupidity-of-the-american-voter-or-whatever.-how-libs-exploit-t.html

*The next rule of SURVIVAL CLUB* is
283 - "Helping others , and NOT doing things that stop others from 
seeking their own path, is an act of self control.  The idea of 
egalitarianism isn't what you *can do* for others but instead it's what 
you *don't do* *to others* , that allows others to find their own way 
without you interfering in their ability to follow their own quest.
-BMUS-