Re: "Legal Firearm Sales at State Level and Rates of Violent Crime, Property Crime, and Homicides"
BeamMeUpScotty <[email protected]>
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On 11/18/22 9:26 AM, David Hartung wrote: > https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0022480422005078 > > [...] > Introduction > > The effects of firearm sales and legislation on crime and violence are > intensely debated, with multiple studies yielding differing results. We > hypothesized that increased lawful firearm sales would not be associated > with the rates of crime and homicide when studied using a robust > statistical method. > Methods > > National and state rates of crime and homicide during 1999-2015 were > obtained from the United States Department of Justice and the Centers > for Disease Control and Prevention. National Instant Criminal Background > Check System background checks were used as a surrogate for lawful > firearm sales. A general multiple linear regression model using log > event rates was used to assess the effect of firearm sales on crime and > homicide rates. Additional modeling was then performed on a state basis > using an autoregressive correlation structure with generalized > estimating equation estimates for standard errors to adjust for the > interdependence of variables year to year within a particular state. > Results > > Nationally, all crime rates except the Centers for Disease Control and > Prevention–designated firearm homicides decreased as firearm sales > increased over the study period. Using a naive national model, increases > in firearm sales were associated with significant decreases in multiple > crime categories. However, a more robust analysis using generalized > estimating equation estimates on state-level data demonstrated increases > in firearms sales were not associated with changes in any crime > variables examined. > Conclusions > > Robust analysis does not identify an association between increased > lawful firearm sales and rates of crime or homicide. Based on this, it > is unclear if efforts to limit lawful firearm sales would have any > effect on rates of crime, homicide, or injuries from violence committed > with firearms. > [...] Like stealing voter ballots and Global temperatures, all you Democrats need to do is massage the numbers for a while.... Start with the premise that everything a Democrat says is a lie, now prove your hypothesis with verifiable facts. -- -That's karma-