Re: A Quora - Can we really stop global warming at this point?
R Kym Horsell <[email protected]> Sun, 7 Nov 2021 16:35:28 -0000 (UTC)
| Newsgroups | alt.astronomy,alt.books.arthur-clarke |
|---|---|
| Organization | kymhorsell.com |
| Message-ID | <[email protected]> |
In alt.astronomy a425couple <[email protected]> wrote: > Interesting enough views, with some facts and opinions. > The really long time periods, fit best > with astronomy. > Go to the original Quora for charts and graphs > David Miller > Former Former Faculty, Department Chair and Advisor at Various Colleges > and Universities (1982-2015) Updated Oct 31 > Can we really stop global warming at this point, after all of the damage > we've done? > Remember back when we were in an ice age and most of the upper US and > Canada were covered with ice? Well, granted it was before your time, but > it really wasn't that long ago, only 20,000 years ago. Do you want to ... I'm sorry. This is a mish-mash and pretty much just a reiteration of all the illiterate climate denial talking points of the past 50y. "I cain hab kilt my wif yer honna! Ladies was dying befour eye was eben born. How kin I be responsibl?" "Ifn G*d had wanted us to stop punchin ourselbs inna face, He wood had showd us how to stop dooin it!". And similar. Gas molecules with more than 2 atoms have the ability to interact with IR radiation. So-called greenhouse gases in the atm reflect back some tiny persent of the IR radiation coming up from the earth. The sun is at 5000K and by radiation rules everyone in alt.astro should know must therefore radiate EM around the visible spectrum. The earth is at 300K and therefore must radiate EM around the infrared. At the earth sunlight is hitting us at around 1000 W/m2 of the. Left to itself Earth would radiate 1000 W/m2 back to space and stabilize at less than 0C. Luckily for us the small amount of GHG in the atm fold back some of that so the planet is actually around 30C warmer. Natural processes have maintained this setup for at least the last 10 million years modulo orbital changes winning out every now and then to drop the avg temp 5K and put the earth in a major glaciation around every 100ky. Around 150y ago the Industrial Revolution started pump another GHG into the atm in increasing quantities. CO2 started at 280 ppmv 150y back and had been at that level for 100s of 1000s of years prior. (Air samples are trapped in polar ice and we have a record going back ~1 mn years at present). Currently CO2 is at around 420 ppmv and headed higher around 2-3 ppmv per year. We're putting around 40 Gt of CO2 into the air and water with our various activities. If the previous level of GHG resulted in a non-frozen earth around 15K above freezing, we can calculate double that should raise the temp around another 3K. We can measure it's up around 1K over the past 150y. We can tell it's not termite breath or volcanic CO2 because it has the isotopic fingerprint of fossil carbon. Carbon out of termites or other animals is high in C13 because biological processes prefer slightly to latch onto C12. CO2 out of volcanoes is low in C14 because radio cabon decays over time, but it has normal levels of C13 (about 1% of the total). Fossil fuels were made from dead plants and animals and is low in C14 and low in C13. When we look at the ratios of C13/C12 and C14/C12 we see both have been declining in the past 150y (those trapped air bubbles in ice again) and the curve exactly corresponds with the levels of emitted CO2 from fossil burning that have grown from near 0 in the mid 19th cent to around 40 Gt CO2 now. The case is pretty much wrapped up who is responsible and how. The only question is are we smart enough to stop punching ourselves in the face or will some small percent of the species that has benefitted financially from the current status quo bamboozle the rest enough to prevent anyone figuring out how to stop it. It would have been easier 30y ago to hit the brakes and stop the car hitting the wall. Having left it until the last possible second -- like usual -- to do anything means we can not avoid hitting the wall but at least have the ability to hit it at a sub-lethal speed. The current climate denial talking points try to convince us there is no point to hit the brakes. Hitting the wall at 100 mph is the same as hitting it at 50 mph they say.