Re: Economic report

On 7/31/2026 10:59 AM, Noah Sombrero wrote:
> On Fri, 31 Jul 2026 10:28:40 -0400, Wilson <[email protected]>
> wrote:
> 
>> On 7/22/2026 9:45 AM, Wilson wrote:
>>> "Inflation is caused by more money chasing the same amount of goods and
>>> services in the economy. The correlation between the money supply (M2)
>>> and CPI [Consumer Price Index] has historically run with a 12 to 18-
>>> month lag.
>>>
>>> M2 is up 5%+ over this past year, and even though June’s CPI and PPI
>>> [Producer Price Index] numbers were both cooler, that would
>>> theoretically point to some revival in CPI over the coming year. Now,
>>> there isn’t anything precise in tea leaves like this, but keep it in
>>> mind when framing the debate within the Fed as to the timing and
>>> direction of the next change in monetary policy. Also keep in mind that
>>> we are at full employment, and that the re-escalation in the Middle East
>>> and the move higher in oil prices puts additional pressure on rates to
>>> rise too."
>>>
>>> https://postimg.cc/YGHjrmtJ
>>>
>>> - Brian Szytel, The Bahnsen Group
>>
>> "You described inflation as too much money chasing too few goods or
>> services, causing a rise in prices. Isn’t there more to it, though -
>> like tariffs playing a role, or oil supply shocks with the war? How do
>> those factor in, or is it all baked into that description?"
>> ~ R.S.
>>
>> "Most of what you’re describing are relative price changes, not
>> inflation in the monetary sense. A tariff or a shipping disruption
>> raises the price of a specific good, but with the money supply fixed, a
>> dollar spent more there is a dollar spent less somewhere else — one
>> price rises, another gives way.
>>
>> What sets the overall price level, which is what inflation actually
>> measures, is the quantity of money and the velocity at which it moves.
>> Tariffs and oil shocks determine the composition of prices; money
>> determines the trend, in other words.
>>
>> That doesn’t make them irrelevant. A supply shock becomes true inflation
>> if it feeds wages and expectations, and several of these factors push on
>> velocity, which is anything but constant. Pricing power only sticks when
>> monetary conditions let demand absorb it. So the shorthand definition is
>> meant to encompass all of it — demand-pull, cost-push, and money supply
>> alike."
>>
>> ~ Brian T. Szytel
> 
> In other words inflation is beyond your understanding, so stop being
> upset about it.  Certainly it has nothing to do with things like
> greed.  Oh, no, certainly not.  Don't look that way, look this way.

It's very easy to understand. At least as long as you don't let your 
ideology get in the way.