Re: The unspoken truth about wildfires

On 8/3/2026 1:13 PM, Noah Sombrero wrote:
> On Mon, 03 Aug 2026 12:31:11 -0400, Noah Sombrero <[email protected]>
> wrote:
> 
>> On Mon, 03 Aug 2026 12:22:15 -0400, Noah Sombrero <[email protected]>
>> wrote:
>>
>>> On Mon, 3 Aug 2026 11:53:48 -0400, Wilson <[email protected]>
>>> wrote:
>>>
>>>> On 8/2/2026 3:30 PM, Noah Sombrero wrote:
>>>>> On Sun, 2 Aug 2026 15:19:59 -0400, Wilson <[email protected]>
>>>>> wrote:
>>>>>> On 8/2/2026 1:10 PM, dart200 wrote:
>>>>>>> On 8/2/26 9:31 AM, Noah Sombrero wrote:
>>>>>>>> On Sun, 2 Aug 2026 12:21:43 -0400, Wilson <[email protected]>
>>>>>>>> wrote:
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> I think the expectation is a warming climate will be dryer and that will
>>>>>>>>> increase wildfires.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Satellite data only goes back to the 1980s. But there's solid scientific
>>>>>>>>> evidence based on fire scar date from tree rings on old growth trees and
>>>>>>>>> studies of sediment data that shows reconstructed wildfire history over
>>>>>>>>> thousands of years.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> That evidence indicates that during the 20th century in North America
>>>>>>>>> there's been fewer acres burned than in previous periods. They're
>>>>>>>>> calling it a "wildfire drought".
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11811286/
>>>>>>>>> https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1112839109
>>>>>>>>> https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3295264/
>>>>>>>>> https://www.researchgate.net/publication/388852965
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> (it's worth noting that's only 2 studies, 2 links each)
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Strange how you can come up with results that show the exact opposite
>>>>>>>> of accepted research.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> Aren't awards for crappy research, crappy ideas?  Unnobel?
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> *sigh*, noah the research isn't crappy, what's crappy is wilson's
>>>>>>> conclusions from it.
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> a) the research is largely generalized across the continental us, which
>>>>>>> does not even have boreal forests, so off to great start there
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> b) it's not climate change that lead to the wildfire deficit, it's human
>>>>>>> activity as noted in _both_ studies. being a complex system ofc several
>>>>>>> factors can affect wildfire rates, and human activity obviously does.
>>>>>>> human activity has caused a deficit. which is getting "corrected" by the
>>>>>>> increased risk from what is still largely nominal climate change across
>>>>>>> most american forests. this risk is still increasing and we've only
>>>>>>> gotten started
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> c) the study that does include some of canadian boreal region, records
>>>>>>> it as the only region burning at a higher rather than historical trends,
>>>>>>> 159% in fact. probably cause it's largely wilderness and far less
>>>>>>> subject to the impact of human activity suppressing fire
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> d) one of the studies literally admits extent is largely not the problem
>>>>>>> for most american forests, but severity is:
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> | Although contemporary fire extent is not unprecedented across many
>>>>>>> | North American forests, there is abundant evidence that unprecedented
>>>>>>> | contemporary fire severity is driving forest loss in many ecosystems
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> it's honestly quite eye opening to see just how poor wilson's ability in
>>>>>>> utilizing evidence is
>>>>>>
>>>>>> The point is and remains, the wildfires over most of North America are
>>>>>> cyclical and overall have not increased in recent years compared to the
>>>>>> long term history.
>>>>>
>>>>> The point being that current trends no longer seem to be cyclical.
>>>>> They seem to be more and more year after year.
>>>>
>>>> You're looking at your personal experience and media reports of events
>>>> over the past 20 years and thinking that can't be part of a greater cycle.
>>>
>>> No, I am thinking that your news sources are biased, and mine a
>>> reliable.  I get no science for news media.
>>
>> In other words, I trust the ny times to tell me if there is fire in
>> spokane, but I do not trust them to tell me whether this is part of a
>> new pattern of seasonal fires.  Nor do I trust your guys to tell me
>> that.
> 
> Ok, wilson, just for fun, here is a good source:
> 
> Fire activity continued to slowly increase the first half of July, but
> a rapid acceleration in activity was observed beginning July 14
> through the end of the month due to two major lightning events
> in the northwestern U.S. The Great Basin, Rocky Mountain, and
> Southwest areas remained active through the first half of July before
> the North American Monsoon began and reduced activity for
> the rest of the month although the northern Great Basin observed an
> increase in activity at the end of July. The Eastern Area had a big
> increase in activity early in the month that persisted most
> of the month, but the Northwest had the greatest increase due to the
> lightning events. With the significant increase in activity mid-month
> and beyond, the National Preparedness Level increased
> to five (on a scale of 1-5) on July 18. As of July 31, over 6 million
> acres have burned across the country, which is 165% of the previous
> 10-year average. So far this year 44,004 wildfires have
> been reported, also above average, at 128%.
> 
> https://www.nifc.gov/nicc-files/predictive/outlooks/monthly_seasonal_outlook.pdf
> 
> Notice the extensive and detailed discussion. This is not a
> popularizer report in fact, it says:
> 
> "The objective is to assist fire managers in making proactive
> decisions that will improve protection of life, property, and natural
> resources, increase fire fighter safety and effectiveness, and reduce
> firefighting costs."
> 
> Intended for professional use. There is no other place to get the
> straight dope.  If you find the text above your level of
> understanding, suggest you get some education.
> 
> Now hurry up with the poopos, wilson, I want to hear you shouting all
> the up to here in ontario.  As you do that you might consider why I so
> seldom bother to give you such real info.

Your source looks to be a great site for near term forecasts.