Re: The unspoken truth about wildfires

On Tue, 4 Aug 2026 15:03:47 -0400, Wilson <[email protected]>
wrote:

>On 8/3/2026 1:13 PM, Noah Sombrero wrote:
>> On Mon, 03 Aug 2026 12:31:11 -0400, Noah Sombrero <[email protected]>
>> wrote:
>> 
>>> On Mon, 03 Aug 2026 12:22:15 -0400, Noah Sombrero <[email protected]>
>>> wrote:
>>>
>>>> On Mon, 3 Aug 2026 11:53:48 -0400, Wilson <[email protected]>
>>>> wrote:
>>>>
>>>>> On 8/2/2026 3:30 PM, Noah Sombrero wrote:
>>>>>> On Sun, 2 Aug 2026 15:19:59 -0400, Wilson <[email protected]>
>>>>>> wrote:
>>>>>>> On 8/2/2026 1:10 PM, dart200 wrote:
>>>>>>>> On 8/2/26 9:31 AM, Noah Sombrero wrote:
>>>>>>>>> On Sun, 2 Aug 2026 12:21:43 -0400, Wilson <[email protected]>
>>>>>>>>> wrote:
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> I think the expectation is a warming climate will be dryer and that will
>>>>>>>>>> increase wildfires.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> Satellite data only goes back to the 1980s. But there's solid scientific
>>>>>>>>>> evidence based on fire scar date from tree rings on old growth trees and
>>>>>>>>>> studies of sediment data that shows reconstructed wildfire history over
>>>>>>>>>> thousands of years.
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> That evidence indicates that during the 20th century in North America
>>>>>>>>>> there's been fewer acres burned than in previous periods. They're
>>>>>>>>>> calling it a "wildfire drought".
>>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>>> https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11811286/
>>>>>>>>>> https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.1112839109
>>>>>>>>>> https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3295264/
>>>>>>>>>> https://www.researchgate.net/publication/388852965
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> (it's worth noting that's only 2 studies, 2 links each)
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Strange how you can come up with results that show the exact opposite
>>>>>>>>> of accepted research.
>>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>>> Aren't awards for crappy research, crappy ideas?  Unnobel?
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> *sigh*, noah the research isn't crappy, what's crappy is wilson's
>>>>>>>> conclusions from it.
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> a) the research is largely generalized across the continental us, which
>>>>>>>> does not even have boreal forests, so off to great start there
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> b) it's not climate change that lead to the wildfire deficit, it's human
>>>>>>>> activity as noted in _both_ studies. being a complex system ofc several
>>>>>>>> factors can affect wildfire rates, and human activity obviously does.
>>>>>>>> human activity has caused a deficit. which is getting "corrected" by the
>>>>>>>> increased risk from what is still largely nominal climate change across
>>>>>>>> most american forests. this risk is still increasing and we've only
>>>>>>>> gotten started
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> c) the study that does include some of canadian boreal region, records
>>>>>>>> it as the only region burning at a higher rather than historical trends,
>>>>>>>> 159% in fact. probably cause it's largely wilderness and far less
>>>>>>>> subject to the impact of human activity suppressing fire
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> d) one of the studies literally admits extent is largely not the problem
>>>>>>>> for most american forests, but severity is:
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> | Although contemporary fire extent is not unprecedented across many
>>>>>>>> | North American forests, there is abundant evidence that unprecedented
>>>>>>>> | contemporary fire severity is driving forest loss in many ecosystems
>>>>>>>>
>>>>>>>> it's honestly quite eye opening to see just how poor wilson's ability in
>>>>>>>> utilizing evidence is
>>>>>>>
>>>>>>> The point is and remains, the wildfires over most of North America are
>>>>>>> cyclical and overall have not increased in recent years compared to the
>>>>>>> long term history.
>>>>>>
>>>>>> The point being that current trends no longer seem to be cyclical.
>>>>>> They seem to be more and more year after year.
>>>>>
>>>>> You're looking at your personal experience and media reports of events
>>>>> over the past 20 years and thinking that can't be part of a greater cycle.
>>>>
>>>> No, I am thinking that your news sources are biased, and mine a
>>>> reliable.  I get no science for news media.
>>>
>>> In other words, I trust the ny times to tell me if there is fire in
>>> spokane, but I do not trust them to tell me whether this is part of a
>>> new pattern of seasonal fires.  Nor do I trust your guys to tell me
>>> that.
>> 
>> Ok, wilson, just for fun, here is a good source:
>> 
>> Fire activity continued to slowly increase the first half of July, but
>> a rapid acceleration in activity was observed beginning July 14
>> through the end of the month due to two major lightning events
>> in the northwestern U.S. The Great Basin, Rocky Mountain, and
>> Southwest areas remained active through the first half of July before
>> the North American Monsoon began and reduced activity for
>> the rest of the month although the northern Great Basin observed an
>> increase in activity at the end of July. The Eastern Area had a big
>> increase in activity early in the month that persisted most
>> of the month, but the Northwest had the greatest increase due to the
>> lightning events. With the significant increase in activity mid-month
>> and beyond, the National Preparedness Level increased
>> to five (on a scale of 1-5) on July 18. As of July 31, over 6 million
>> acres have burned across the country, which is 165% of the previous
>> 10-year average. So far this year 44,004 wildfires have
>> been reported, also above average, at 128%.
>> 
>> https://www.nifc.gov/nicc-files/predictive/outlooks/monthly_seasonal_outlook.pdf
>> 
>> Notice the extensive and detailed discussion. This is not a
>> popularizer report in fact, it says:
>> 
>> "The objective is to assist fire managers in making proactive
>> decisions that will improve protection of life, property, and natural
>> resources, increase fire fighter safety and effectiveness, and reduce
>> firefighting costs."
>> 
>> Intended for professional use. There is no other place to get the
>> straight dope.  If you find the text above your level of
>> understanding, suggest you get some education.
>> 
>> Now hurry up with the poopos, wilson, I want to hear you shouting all
>> the up to here in ontario.  As you do that you might consider why I so
>> seldom bother to give you such real info.
>
>Your source looks to be a great site for near term forecasts.

Your Marine drill instructor says, "I can't *heeeear* you wilson.  I
think he wants you poopoo louder.
-- 
Noah Sombrero mustachioed villain
Don't get political with me young man
or I'll tie you to a railroad track and
<<<talk>>> to <<<YOOooooo>>>
Who dares to talk to El Sombrero?
dares: Ned
does not dare: Julian  shrinks in horror and warns others away