Newsom's Pipe Dream: California Tries to Rig the Map - and Gets Smacked by Its Own Laws

On Monday, I published a column ridiculing DNC Chairman Ken Martin for his 
“woe is me” approach to the 2026 midterms and suggestion that it is the 
Republican Party, not the Democrats, who engages in election rigging on a 
grand scale. Prior to hammering Martin over vote manipulation, I made my 
case on systemic cheating that corrupts the entire election environment 
before any votes are cast:

You say Texas is tipping the scales for the GOP. Texas is hoping to pick 
up 5 Republican seats, of which I am confident 4 are good to go and the 
fifth is likely. If they get all 5, they’ll have 30 of 38 seats under GOP 
control, or 78.9%. Now, let’s compare to California, your mother ship 
people can’t wait to escape from. 43 of 52 seats are Democrat-held, or 
82.7%. Where is the outrage over this?

Better yet, why don’t we discuss the allocation itself, with Texas having 
been undercounted, along with several other red states, and blue states 
having been systemically overcounted and holding the lion’s share of 
illegals to bloat U.S. Census numbers against the interests of American 
citizens? I have your party at 12 to 16 electoral votes (and 
representatives) too strong based on a realistic understanding of the 
population shifts in America and the government’s own admittedly 
inaccurate (fraudulent) data.

Democrats are rallying around their blue fortresses, particularly 
California, to push back against not only Ohio and Texas, but the 
possibility that Florida, Missouri, and Indiana may consider mid-decade 
redistricting to aid in holding the Republican majority in the U.S. House. 
At worst, I see Texas and Ohio combining to net six Republican seats; 
Florida has room for three I can see at a quick glance, and Missouri (MO-
5, bordering two R+44 districts) and Indiana (IN-1, bordering two 
districts ranging R+28 to R+34) not more than one each. It seems proper to 
close this paragraph by reminding you that NE-2 (metro Omaha) is perhaps 
the most poorly drawn district any group of Republicans has ever come up 
with.

If my range of 11 to 13 seats picked up by the five GOP states above is 
accurate, the odds of Republicans holding the House suddenly go sky-high. 
Here’s how things shape up in the three big Democrat states talking a big 
game about their own redistricting:

California 43D/9R
Illinois 14D/3R
New York 19D/7R
Before tackling the Golden State problem, let me first address Illinois 
and New York. There is absolutely no room for even a single Democrat 
pickup in Illinois. Two of the GOP seats were won uncontested in 2024, and 
the other (IL-12) is a GOP vote dump in Southern Illinois won by 49%. That 
state is fully gerrymandered. In New York, I think the Democrats could 
eliminate Mike Lawler from NY-17, but they can’t knock off NY-1 without 
jeopardizing NY-3 and NY-4. Their margins are simply too thin to make more 
than one seat flip, and they may not look at that as a valid option with 
inevitable blowback over a petty gain.

That leaves California and blowhard Gavin Newsom to rattle sabers in 
defense of the great struggle. If Newsom and his legislative accomplices 
were to find a way to rid themselves of all 9 GOP U.S. House members 
(impossible), successful redistricting in the 5 red states mentioned here 
would still pick up net seats for the Republicans (likely 2 to 4). There 
are two giant considerations that are going to prevent Newsom from living 
up to Democrat expectations to hold the line:

I. California Law

Any plans Newsom may have are likely stillborn by virtue of state law; 
yes, you’ve read that correctly. California, unlike with its election 
laws, has other very restrictive laws that will almost certainly prevent 
any redistricting from occurring prior to the next decade.

In 2008, California voters approved Proposition 11, which created the 
California Citizens Redistricting Commission (CCRC) to handle state 
legislative boundaries, and two years later, expanded its power to include 
federal district boundaries by approving Proposition 20. A constitutional 
amendment would be needed to strip the CCRC of its responsibilities.

Newsom has just two options, both of which he has floated. The first is to 
argue there is no constitutional provision prohibiting a mid-decade 
redistricting. This would be a certain loser in court, as there is no way 
to put it other than the CCRC has been vested with all authority for 
establishing California’s legislative boundaries.

The second option Newsom has is to compel the legislature to propose a 
special measure (requires two-thirds majority) and hold a special election 
to allow for a workaround to the standard CCRC process. He is working on a 
tight timeline and faces steep challenges in getting this done politically 
and then would need to win the vote.

If Newsom were to succeed in having his way, I’d put my chips down on the 
second option as the mechanism, and not with high odds.

https://floppingaces.net/most-wanted/newsoms-pipe-dream-california-tries-
to-rig-the-map-and-gets-smacked-by-its-own-laws/