Fascistic Failure - Covid-19: Nearly 100,000 catching virus every day - study

Nearly 100,000 people are catching coronavirus every day in 
England, a major analysis suggests.

The study, by Imperial College London, says the pace of the 
epidemic is accelerating and estimates the number of people 
infected is now doubling every nine days.

The authors say we are at a "critical stage" and "something has 
to change".

France and Germany have turned to forms of lockdown to control 
the virus.

Communities Secretary Robert Jenrick told BBC Breakfast the 
government wanted to "try to avoid having a national blanket 
approach" to coronavirus restrictions in England.

"We don't have a plan, today, to do a full national lockdown," 
he said, adding such a move "would be destructive to people's 
lives and livelihoods and broader health and wellbeing".

A national "firebreak" lockdown is ongoing in Wales, while 
Northern Ireland has tightened restrictions, including closing 
schools, and Scotland will later confirm details of a new tiered 
alert system.

Experts are warning that we are fast approaching the peak in 
infections seen in the spring.

The React-1 study is highly influential because it is the most 
up-to-date assessment of Covid-19 in the country, with the last 
swabs taken only on Sunday and nearly 86,000 volunteers taking 
part.

A further 24,701 new coronavirus cases were reported on Thursday 
- but the Imperial College study randomly tests asymptomatic 
people to estimate the number of overall new infections.

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It shows cases are rising in every age group and in every region 
of England.

While cases are currently highest in the North, infections are 
surging more rapidly in the South.

The study compared the latest swabs collected between 16 and 25 
October with the last round of swabs, between 18 September and 5 
October.

It found that, on average, every infected person in London was 
passing on the virus to nearly three other people - the highest 
estimated rate in England.

And it also suggests:

The number of people infected has more than doubled since the 
last round, with one in every 78 people now testing positive.
The hardest hit area is Yorkshire and the Humber, where one in 
every 37 people has the virus, followed by the North West region.
Three times as many people aged 55-64 are infected, compared 
with the previous month's study, and twice as many over 65s.
The pace of the epidemic has accelerated with the R number - the 
number of people each infected person passes the virus on to on 
average - increasing from 1.15 to 1.56.
Overall, the number of people infected is doubling every nine 
days.
The South East, South West, east of England and London all have 
an R above 2.0.
Cases are spiking in young people in the South West in a repeat 
of the pattern seen in northern England just over a month ago.
There are 96,000 people catching the virus every day.
Prevalence of coronavirus infection by region (%). Results based 
on positive swab results .  .
Prof Steven Riley, one of the authors, told BBC Radio 4's Today 
programme the government may need to "think about changing the 
approach" in England.

"I think lockdown as a phrase is inhibiting us a little bit," he 
said. "I think what our study shows is there would be genuine 
benefits to some kind of national policy in that we could 
prevent the pattern in the South turning into the current 
pattern in the North and bring about a reversal in the North as 
quickly as possible."

He added that "sooner is better" when it comes to making a 
decision on national restrictions.

Dr Mike Tildesley, professor of infectious disease modelling at 
the University of Warwick and adviser to the government, told 
Today there needed to be "urgent... rapid action" to avoid a 
further rise in infections next month.

He described the current regional approach as "firefighting" and 
said some form of national measure in England would help prevent 
areas moving up into higher restrictions.

"If we don't take urgent action, we're most likely to see that 
as we're approaching the festive period we're probably going to 
be in at least tier two pretty much everywhere in the country," 
he said.

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Analysis: Stark picture of a challenging winter
This study paints a stark picture of where we are and where we 
could be heading.

If there was no change in the reported nine-day doubling time, 
there would be more than a million infections a day by the end 
of November.

That is a considerable "if", but it demonstrates the threat 
posed by the virus if it is allowed to grow exponentially.

Somehow, we have to navigate a challenging winter, balancing the 
virus and the cost of restrictions.

France and Germany have turned to forms of lockdown, albeit not 
as severe as those endured earlier in the year. The government 
here is sticking to its regional strategy.

But the hardest fact to digest today may be that it is still 
only October.

Spring, when hopefully the weather and vaccine will make the 
virus easier to control, is still a long way away.

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But World Health Organization envoy Prof David Nabarro said 
regional restrictions in the North have slowed the spread of 
Covid-19.

He said England has "apparently been able to slow the spread in 
some parts of the North of the country through very effective 
local action".

Meanwhile, business leaders have urged the government to avoid 
another full national lockdown to save jobs and protect the 
economy.

Hotelier Sir Rocco Forte told the BBC the country was "looking 
at a very bleak future and high levels of redundancy and 
employment" and that any future national lockdown would be "an 
overreaction and completely unnecessary".

The 75-year-old said he contracted coronavirus earlier this year 
and "got through it" after an unpleasant three weeks.

"I would go through that again rather than see the country close 
down," he said.

Government statistics show 45,675 people have died of 
coronavirus, up 310 in the past 24 hours, total number of 
confirmed cases is now 942,275, up 24,701 and hospital 
admissions are now 160,784, up 1,227 in the past 24 hours, 
updated 28 Oct
The government is still hoping its local, targeted restrictions 
will work in England, allowing more of the economy to stay open 
in areas where the virus is less prevalent, according to BBC 
political correspondent Nick Eardley.

But it has also been at pains to say it is ruling nothing out if 
the virus is out of control - including nationwide measures, he 
added.

The government's coronavirus dashboard reported 310 further 
deaths across the UK on Wednesday.

But there were glimmers of hope in the report. Cases in the 
north east of England are still growing, but much more slowly 
than before.

And in the North East and Yorkshire and the Humber, the number 
of 18-24 year olds catching the virus is starting to fall, 
although it is rising in older age groups.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-54723962