Crazy Weather Here Right now!

<div>I have an international flight (well, just to Canada) from San Diego early tomorrow morning. There is a hurricane due to hit Baja/San Diego/Southern California tomorrow also. I'm hoping the flight leaves before the weather arrives...</div><div></div><div></div><div></div><div></div><div></div><div>Crazy weather here right now!</div><div></div><div>DOWNLOAD: https://t.co/z2GWaw0aAy </div><div></div><div></div><div>How soon do the airlines or authorities typically cancel flights due to expected extreme weather such as hurricanes? The weather is fine here right now, the wind is forecast to start picking up around 6am tomorrow, with the worst of it due to start from midday (so well after my flight due to leave) - Do they cancel flights because they expect the weather to be bad (so could be notified of cancellation tonight)? Or do they normally wait until the weather actually is bad before they cancel?</div><div></div><div></div><div>Weather is the state of the atmosphere at any given time and place. Most of the weather that affects people, agriculture, and ecosystems takes place in the lower layer of the atmosphere. Familiar aspects of weather include temperature, precipitation, clouds, and wind that people experience throughout the course of a day. Severe weather conditions include hurricanes, tornadoes, blizzards, and droughts.</div><div></div><div></div><div>The concepts of climate and weather are often confused, so it may be helpful to think about the difference between weather and climate with an analogy: weather influences what clothes you wear on a given day, while the climate where you live influences the entire wardrobe you buy.</div><div></div><div></div><div>The District is committed to protecting residents experiencing homelessness from hypothermia and other extreme weather injuries. Outreach is conducted throughout the year by teams from DHS and the DC Department of Behavioral Health (DBH), and the District is one of only three jurisdictions in the country with a right-to-shelter mandate.</div><div></div><div></div><div></div><div></div><div></div><div></div><div>I am from Rochester, but I still cannot get used to the weather here. Every year is different, but this has been the strangest yet. There was literally a week in January where it started in the negatives but ended with a high of 54 degrees. Last year at this date, there had been 58 inches of snow total, and this year we have barely broken 7 inches. When it has snowed, it has just melted the same day or the next because it warmed right up. There have been reports of Rochester being one of the snowiest cities in the nation, and I know many students were expecting to get a crazy amount of snow during their time here, but it has not happened for them. Whether they are happy about this or not, it is just strange for a native Rochesterian such as myself driving around the city not bundled up with gloves, a heavy wool coat, scarves, and boots in the middle of January. Even at the end of our fall semester in December, I was going out in hoodies and would be uncomfortably hot some days because it was so nice outside.</div><div></div><div></div><div>Of the attribution studies included here, scientists found that human-caused climate change has altered the likelihood or severity of an extreme weather event in 80% of cases studied (71% made more severe or likely and 9% made less so).</div><div></div><div></div><div>Another important point is that in cases where attribution science finds that climate change is making a given type of extreme weather more likely, it does not necessarily follow that the chance of experiencing that kind of weather gets incrementally higher each year. Natural variability means that there will still be ups and downs in the strength and frequency of extreme events.</div><div></div><div></div><div>Finally, there is usually a level of confidence attached to attribution results. So, while two studies might both find a role for human influence in a given weather event, the signal may be stronger for one than the other. For the purposes of this analysis, the attribution map does not distinguish between high- and low-confidence results, but users can click through to each study for more details.</div><div></div><div></div><div>The paper notes that, in a chaotic weather system, the complex dynamics of the atmosphere mean the size and path of a storm or heavy rainfall event has a large element of chance. This can make it tricky to identify where climate change fits in, potentially underestimating its influence.</div><div></div><div></div><div>For example, the paper reexamines an earlier study (pdf, p15) that suggested climate change had reduced the chances of the five-day heavy rainfall event that hit north-east Colorado in September 2013. Trenberth and colleagues argue that while climate change might not have made the specific weather system that brought the rain more likely, it will have contributed to the sheer volume of moisture in the atmosphere.</div><div></div><div></div><div>It is also important to stress that the absence of evidence for a link to climate change is not the same as evidence of absence. In other words, it does not necessarily mean there was no human influence, just that a particular analysis did not find one. This is why a single study should never be considered the final word on how climate change influences a given type of extreme weather.</div><div></div><div></div><div>This means that while the studies carried out so far are indicative of the role climate change is playing in extreme weather around the world, they should not be considered representative of all types of extreme weather everywhere, says Otto. She tells Carbon Brief:</div><div></div><div></div><div>There is a 56 per cent chance that when the weather phenomenon is at peak strength, the Eastern-Pacific sea surface temperatures will be at least 1.5 degrees Celsius higher than normal, according to NOAA.</div><div></div><div></div><div>ANTHONY LEISEROWITZ: So we've been tracking how Americans are responding for the past 15 years. And so I think it's actually part of a larger trend, in that we've seen that Americans are increasingly convinced that climate change is happening. In our most - latest national study, it was 74%. They're increasingly convinced it's human-caused. It was most recently at 61%. And they're growing increasingly worried. So about two-thirds of Americans say that they're now worried about climate change, and these particular kinds of extreme weather events, which are just hitting us over and over again like a two-by-four to the forehead, are starting to actually really come through. People are starting to wake up and really say, oh, my gosh, something's really going on here.</div><div></div><div></div><div>CHANG: You put your finger on something, and that is the effects of climate change are still being felt unevenly around the world. Like, even as people in some parts of America may only now be seeing these disasters in their backyards, there are people in other places who've been dealing with these consequences for years, right? Like, I know you've been studying how people in the Arctic have been grappling with climate change for years and years.</div><div></div><div></div><div>LEISEROWITZ: Yes. So the science-fiction writer William Gibson famously said, the future is already here. It's just not evenly distributed. And people in the Arctic, even 20 years ago, were experiencing 2 to 4 times the rate of warming as the rest of the world. Unfortunately, now 20 years later, we're all starting to really experience these impacts globally. For many years, it was seen as what we call psychologically distant. People thought it was distant in time - like, maybe the impacts would happen in a generation, so maybe to my grandkids - or distant in space. This was about polar bears or maybe developing countries but not the United States, not my community, not my friends, family or me. That basic perception has begun to shift pretty dramatically as these events start to roll out across America. And people are beginning to really connect the dots and say, actually, this is happening right here, right now, to the people and places that I care about.</div><div></div><div></div><div>People are going absolutely nuts these days about extreme weather. Every event, any where is now readily associated with climate change and a portent of a climate out of control, apocalyptic even. I\u2019ve long given up hope that the actual science of climate and extreme weather will be fairly reported or discussed in policy \u2014 nowadays, climate change is just too seductive and politically expedient.</div><div></div><div></div><div>Editor's note: This article was originally published on May 4, 2023, and has been updated regularly throughout the year to include further extreme weather events around the world. Amid ever-more intense and frequent extreme weather events, it is not intended as an exhaustive list. It does, however, help convey the scale of the impact that the climate emergency is having right now on lives and livelihoods globally.</div><div></div><div></div><div>The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) tracks climate disasters and their impact on Americans. There have been over 372 billion-dollar weather and climate-related disasters since 1980 that total over $2.63 trillion in damage. The chart below shows how climate and extreme weather disasters have increased in frequency over time, especially in the last five years.</div><div></div><div></div><div>This technical conference will also address the specific challenges posed to electric system reliability by climate change and extreme weather, which may vary by region. For example, addressing the reliability challenges associated with wildfires may not be appropriate in a region where a different challenge, such as weather-driven fuel supply interruptions, is more likely to occur.</div><div></div><div></div><div>And as I said before, this is possibly our new normal. This is the kind of weather that even what should normally be a beautiful beach going Sunday in July can turn into a devastating catastrophe because of Mother Nature. And so, we're still in recovery phase from last week's storm. I'll tell you what we're doing there, but we just announced Friday, I've submitted our major disaster declaration to the Biden Administration, so this has gone forth. We've already estimated over $50 million worth of damage from that two-day event just last week.</div><div></div><div></div><div>The strong, persistent upper-level trough feature over SE Canada, Great Lakes & the NE US during June 2023 is indeed consistent with El Niño, upper-level weather patterns. During a typical June, the polar jet typically is more zonal. But this year, perturbations in the mid-latitude atmospheric circulation in the northern West Hemisphere are a result in wind reversals taking shape. This process is creating nearly stationary, large amplitude oscillations in the jet stream.</div><div></div><div> dd2b598166</div>