AAAI Fall Symposium 2002 on Chance Discovery

Dear All,

Let me ditribute the CFP for the AAAI Fall Symposium on 
"Chance Discovery" coming in November 2002 in North Falmouth, 
Massachusetts, USA. We look forward to receiving your 
submissions. 


Best Regards,
Yukio Ohsawa, Simon Parsons, and Petert McBurney
Chairs of FSS02 on Chance Discovery, AAAI

P.S. For any inquiry please feel free to touch:
Yukio Ohsawa
Address: GSSM, University of Tsukuba, 3-29-1 Otsuka, 
Bunkyo-ku Tokyo 112-0012 Japan
Fax: +81-3-3942-6829
E-mail: [email protected]



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                WITH APOLOGIES FOR MULTIPLE POSTINGS

        Chance Discovery: The Discovery and Management of Chance Events

                November 15-17, 2002 

                Sea Crest Conference Center,
                North Falmouth, Massachusetts USA

Chance events are rare or novel events with potentially significant
consequences for decision-making, i.e., events to be conceived as a risk
or an opportunity. This symposium will be devoted to the questions: How
may we predict, identify or explain chance events and their
consequences? ("chance discovery") and How may we assess, prepare for or
manage them? ("chance management").

An agent -- human, robot or software agent -- engaged in planning needs
to adopt a view of the future: In order to decide goals, and to decide
the best sequence of actions to achieve these goals, how can an agent or
agents discover rare or novel events and forecast their consequences?
The consequences of such events may significantly impede or facilitate
the achievement of agents' goals, but their unlikeness makes them
difficult to predict or explain by methods that use historical data or
pattern-matching. 

One can think of chance discovery as a search of maximum or minimum of a
surface whose shape is unknown, in a space whose dimensions may also be
unknown. The focus on the agent and its environment as one interacting
system can be another viewpoint. This symposium will seek to bring
together members of the AI community with people from various relevant
domains listed below, to create and share approaches to chance
discovery/management. Topics of interest include, but are not restricted
to:

     Agent systems and planning with emergent behaviors 
     Human-computer or agent-environment interactions 
     Complex systems 
     WWW Awareness 
     Knowledge discovery and data mining 
     Statistics and data analysis 
     Information retrieval 
     Risk analysis, prediction, assessment and management 
     Marketing theory and demand forecasting for innovative products 
     Opportunity identification in business 
     Social trends analysis 
     Social psychology 
     Natural disaster prediction and management 
     Management and decision sciences 
     Operations research 
     Philosophy of forecasting and risk 
     Hypothesis discovery in scientific theories.


Submissions:

Potential participants are invited to submit a paper of between 1,500
and 6000 words, proposing questions, reporting work in progress,
discussing applications or providing a theoretical contribution. Please
submit in PostScript format to Yukio Ohsawa:

         [email protected]. 

* If PostScript format is not available in your environment, please
  ask Ohsawa if your submission is acceptable, before submission.

Important Dates:
           
        Submission:             11 May  
        Notification:           14 June   
        Final papers due:       6 September 

        Symposium:              15-17 November, 2002. 


Information can also be obtained from the symposium web-site: 

        http://www.miv.t.u-tokyo.ac.jp/~matumura/FSS02/

or the AAAI Symposium web-site:

        http://www.aaai.org/Symposia/Fall/2002/fss-02.html



Organizing Committee:

Yukio Ohsawa, University of Tsukuba ([email protected])
(Chair)
Simon Parsons, University of Liverpool ([email protected]) 
Peter McBurney, University of Liverpool ([email protected]).


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