1% down, 99% to go
Andrew Hime <[email protected]>
| Newsgroups | gmane.comp.distributed-net.rc5 |
|---|---|
| Message-ID | <30515881.1118075.1282944445261.JavaMail.root@vms073.mailsrvcs.net> |
On May 17th, distributed.net's RC5-72 effort reached .8% completion - an effort that took 2722 days, almost 7.5 years. At the time, I did some quick math and predicted that we would reach 1% completion by October 22nd. We got there last night, August 26th. A workload that I figured to take 5.2 months took approximately 3.3. It took 2824 days to do 1% of the RC5-72 keyspace - a time of 7.7 years. At the current keyrate, we will complete 100% of the keyspace in 142.4 years. At the current keyrate, we will reach 2% completion in approximately 1.4 years, or around February 4th, 2012. I did some rough math (back of napkin kind of stuff). Assuming that the keyrate doubles approximately every 18 months (which, ignoring the introduction of the Stream client, still seems valid), we will reach 100% completion within 11 years. So, somewhere between 11 and 142 years to go. Given the lag time after OGR-27 completes (somewhere between 4-8 years from now) and before the next OGR project starts, those numbers are likely on the high side. By the way, about Stream. It will likely be the number one platform for RC5 by the end of calendar year 2010, if not sooner. -- It only took 15 years for me to get a sig... to shamelessly promote my podcast. http://www.valuecube.com _______________________________________________ rc5 mailing list rc5-Ra3b/QYEcJ3d140v2zMXi0fjHoOT/h/[email protected] http://lists.distributed.net/mailman/listinfo/rc5