Re: bias...

Deven T. Corzine wrote:

<SNIP>

>
>I'd like something more solid than wishful thinking to believe that my 
>profession will still be viable in 10, 20, 50 or 100 years...
>
>Deven
>

Writing software *won't* be viable in 10 or 20 or 50 years.  First, 
software has become a commodity.  How long has it been since we've seen 
a real product that a consumer doesn't already have?  That is, how many 
copies of a word processor does a single person need, anyway?  It's 
getting to the point where we are re-writing everything that has come 
before, over and over again, from operating systems to video CODECS to 
web browsers.

Second, I'd hope that within 50 years we have software that writes 
software.  Otherwise, we're not doing our jobs.  (Consider the state of 
software development 50 years ago.)  I believe our profession is already 
in danger, though not for another decade or two (long enough for me to 
retire).

WRT *GPL: the fastest growing segment in software development is still 
in web services.  If you write a web app, you don't have to release the 
code, because you are distributing a service, not a product.  Our 
profession is already shifting from a product-oriented industry to a 
service industry.  Why do you suppose Microsoft is fighting so hard for 
the web-service mindshare?  It's happening slower than people had hoped 
back in the .com days, but that doesn't mean it isn't working already.

Anyway, the only constant is change itself, to be cliched.  Both people 
and the market are resilient.  All this "the sky is falling" mentality 
about the GPL reminds me of Ed Yourden's Y2K hoopla: a lot of sound and 
fury, signifying nothing.

But that's just my opinion.  I could be wrong.

                - Tony