Re: Re: Back to one's roots

On Wednesday, Jan 22, 2003, at 15:47 America/Detroit, Dale Emery 
<[email protected]> wrote:

> Manufacturers admit there are aspects of the business process they
> can't control.  Many software managers and executives aren't (yet)
> willing to admit that.

I find that fascinating. We've established in other threads that these 
managers tend to be people with engineering experience, in many cases 
promoted up from the ranks. Who has arranged for them to forget it, and 
how?

You know, I'm reminded of a conversation I had Monday about tacit and 
explicit knowledge, in which I brought up statisticians and slot 
machines. I happen to know a lot of professional and academic [not an 
accidental distinction] statisticians, and I can't think of a single 
one who doesn't say, "I would never bet on a slot machine -- I might as 
well throw my money away." These are people who can compose Hidden 
Markov models in their sleep, and who have a detailed understanding of 
random walks, portfolio management theory, and the core concepts of 
statistical mechanics. Yet they don't understand that you can win money 
playing slot machines? How can that be?

I'm not sure if it's more because they have been indoctrinated from day 
one of STAT 101 that "a drunkard's walk always ends in bankruptcy," or 
that they have never stopped to wonder why people keep gambling.

Perhaps there is something analogous among the managers you're talking 
about.

[I confess that what I stated in the extremeCustomering list many 
months ago is still true: I haven't met one yet. I know an awful lot of 
managers, at all levels, and every one I've ever asked has acknowledged 
the risk and cost of not being agile. Most didn't feel they knew how to 
approach it, though.]

Regards,
Tozier
-----
Bill Tozier
[email protected]

"Betty Field, of Bognor Regis, West Sussex, believes a ritualistic 
ceremony was carried out on her pet rabbit, Bunkins."
   -- wire service account of alleged Satanic occurrences, June 1997


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