Project Gutenberg Yearly Report

Michael Hart's Yearly Report On Project Gutenberg

1.  Thanks To The Project Gutenberg Volunteers!!!!!!!

2.  The Project Gutenberg Philosphy

3.  Moore's Law Growth Rates Are Impossible!  Mulder?  Scully?

Project Gutenberg's 2002 Growth Rate Was ~99% Of Moore's Law.
We did 6,743 out of the 6,813 = 158.74% of 2001's 4,292 total!!!
[The exact percentage we accomplished was:  98.97%]

Speaking of Moore's Law, last year you could buy 8 120G drives,
to make a Terabyte, for only $792; leaving enough $ to by a box
with drive controllers and cables for about $1,000.

4.  A Whole Elephant Full Of Books!!!

5.  Surrounding The Super Bowl With Books!!!


***  This is a little rambling, due to the big crash recovery,
***  I haven't had time to rewrite as much I would have liked.



1.  Thanks To The Project Gutenberg Volunteers!!!!!!!

To put it the most succinctly I must paraphrase Winston Churchill:


               !
              !!!
             !!!!!

           Never. . .

        in the field of
       literary humanity
         would so many,
          owe so much,
           to so few.

             !!!!!
              !!!
               !



2.  The Project Gutenberg Philosphy

Our goal is to bring literacy and education to as many people as possible.

When I first heard of the Internet, back when there were only ~100 people
on the whole thing, I envisioned a medium much like that of the Star Trek
replicators and transporters. . .you put something in at one location and
for the rest of history any one can get it out in a billion other places!

Since that time, it's been amazing to watch the efforts of all those whom
we have seen trying to stop the achievement of this simple goal, from the
most famous univerities trying for a monopoly on all eBooks to individual
people who say they want to be THE ONLY SOURCE for certain eBooks all the
way to the current session of the U.S Supreme Court, still undecided in a
case about the continued extensions of copyrights through the 1900's. . .
79 years of copyright extension during an 89 year period [1909-1998].

However, Project Gutenberg has been remarkably successful, given that the
entire budget for the entire project since 1971 hasn't been even equal to
32 years of the median US income of a few years ago.

In this effort we have put no limits on who can repost our eBooks free of
any and all charges.  This is in contradiction to most eBook sites and/or
producers who work with public domain materials.  We can only hope people
will understand that we can do more good through "Unlimited Distribution"
than through any kind of "Limited Distribution."  It is a bit scary, when
we receive notice of so many operations charging for our eBooks or varied
reformatting of them, without so much as asking permission or sending the
very small portion we request, including supposedly non-profit companies,
who still refuse to share either their files so they can pay themselves a
salary much higher than I have had over the 31 years of Project Gutenberg
. . .last year was the first year I ever earned a salary over the median.
Next year we should finally reach our original goal of 10,000 files which
we hope will go to 100,000,000 people for a trillion files given away.  I
have to mention that this is in no way a sure thing, lots of work to go.


3.  Moore's Law Growth Rates Are Impossible!  Mulder?  Scully?

Project Gutenberg's 2002 Growth Rate Was ~99.33% Of Moore's Law.
We did 6,743 out of the 6,789 = 158.74% of 2001's 4,292 total!!!


Long, long ago, on a computer in a laboratory far, far away,
a man name Moore realized that computer memory was doubling
every year and half, and he predicted that it would continue
doubling every 18 months for the predictable future.

Everyone said it couldn't be done. . . .

When it was done, time after time after time, they finally
retreated to a position:

Nothing OTHER than computer memory can follow this growth curve.

But computer speed and hard disk space also kept pace. . . .

Eventually they just said that no HUMAN enterprise could do it.

Project Gutenberg has proven them wrong.

Since we had only 10 eBooks on December 10th, 1990, we are way
ahead of the Moore's Law growth rate, and even counting the HUGE
growth to eBook #100 between 1990 and 1994, we are STILL ahead of
even a Moore's Law projection based on THAT remarkable feat!

So, the pundits we had proven wrong, finally retreated to saying
that we are only coasting on past accomplishments, and we couldn't
possibly keep up with Moore's law as we transitioned to doing
thousands of eBooks instead of just doing a hundred.

Today we celebrate the presentation of Project Gutenberg's #6667,
two-thirds of the way to our original goal of 10,000 FREE eBooks.

And, for those who said we could not keep up with Moore's Law in
"modern times". . .we have to say that we are just about exactly
on the Moore's Law schedule from when we had 4,292 eBooks at the
end of 2001.  [We are at 99.3% of that goal at the moment and we
are still accelerating!]

Project Gutenberg's 2002 Growth Rate Was ~99.33% Of Moore's Law.
We did 6,743 out of the 6,789 = 158.74% of 2001's 4,292 total!!!


Moore's Law

Moore's Law Growth rate of 58.74% over last year's 4292 total
This would require a Grand Total of 6789.  Presuming we reach
6667 we would have reach over 98.2% of Moore's Law for 2002--
6692, or 2400 for 2002-- over 98.5%, not quite, but close....

Presuming Project Gutenberg continues on the yearly average of around 45
eBooks per month, and given our total of 6350 this week, with 6 weeks to
go until the first Wednesday of 2003, we should reach a total of 6620 to
round out the year of 2002, leaving 3380 to go to reach #10,000.  Then:
averaging 65 over the next 52 weeks will reach that total of 3380, and a
grand total of 10,000 eBooks.

Using our 100th eBook as a starting point, Moore's Law would cover these
past 9 years containing 6 18 month doubling periods, for a total of 6400
eBooks on December 10th, 2002, the 9th anniversary of our eBook #100.

Moore's Law predicts that some things will double every 18 months, thus,
quadrupling in 3 years, multiplying by 16 in 6 years, by 64 in 9 years.

This is an annual growth rate of 58.74%

1.5874 ^9 = ~64 [63.999]

02            9 6400
01            8
00            7
99            6 1600
98            5
97            4
96            3  400
95            2
94            1
93 Dec 10     0  100
92
91
90

This would get us to about 10,800 eBooks by the end of 2003.

Of course, Moore's Law growth rates have been scientifically determined
to be beyond the reach of human oriented growth patterns, and thus have
no application here, and we have obviously thus falsified our work. . .
and we cannot possibly exist. . . .

Mulder?  Scully?  Where are you when we need you?!?!?!

The answer is that Project Gutenberg only exists in cyberspace. . .and
in our souls.

"It's Amazing How Much Can Be Done,
When It Doesn't Matter Who Gets The Credit."


I've been working on ways to make Project Gutenberg's work "tangible."

Here are some examples of what I've come up with.

Suggestions and comments MORE than welcome!!!


4.  A Whole Elephant Full Of Books!!!

Presuming the average Project Gutenberg book in hardback paper format
would be .75" think, with bindings of .125" each, for a total of some
1" [one inch] and some 9" high, I weighed a few books about this size
from my collection, and they averaged right about one pound.

Thus, our current collection would weigh about 6,750 pounds, the size
of the average elephant!!!

[Averaging male and female adult Indian and African elephants.]

Some of you might want to check my figures on this.

I would LOVE to balance an elephant with books on Letterman/Leno etc!


5.  Surrounding The Super Bowl With Books!!!

By the time of the Super Bowl, we should be approaching 7,000 eBooks.
At one inch each, that's 7,000" or 194 yards, which would reach from
one extra point hash mark [three yard line] to the other, TWICE. . .
enough to cover both sidelines, leaving just enough room for coaches
. . .but not enough for them to pace. . . !


If you can come up with other ways to make our collection *tangible*
. . .please let me know.

For example. . .find me some famous objects around 600 feet tall, or
600 feet deep, wide, etc. . . .

When we get to #10,000, we'll have 833 feet to work with. . . .

For example:  The Rockefeller Center, home of GE/NBC is 850 feet.


Thanks!!!

Michael S. Hart
<[email protected]>
Project Gutenberg
Principal Instigator
"*Internet User ~#100*"


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