Re: Our "publish then filter" future...

Jon:

Can I forward this over to Book Futures? I think this is right where Book Futures should be talking.

Kent



At 11:03 AM -0600 3/22/08, you wrote:
>Everyone,
>
>It is interesting to note that since the founding of this group twelve
>years ago, we continue to discuss the topic of "vanity/subsidy/self"
>vs. "real" publishers. (Note, I don't want to get into another
>discussion of the fine distinctions and variants of "publishers" --
>that is being discussed in related threads.)
>
>About ten years ago I floated the prediction in this group that
>sometime in the future, as 1) e-books became mainstream, 2) publishing
>tools for the masses became inexpensive and ubiquitous, and 3) the
>Internet matured allowing rapid dissemination, we would see dramatic
>changes in the book publishing model.
>
>Specifically, I held to the view that as the traditional "gatekeepers"
>disappeared (since technological advances would render their purpose
>moot), we'd see the dominant publishing model for all types of
>textual content to naturally switch from the "filter then publish" to
>the "publish then filter" model.
>
>Indeed, with the rise of print-on-demand (POD), which is a sort of
>bridge between our p-book past and our e-book future, we are seeing a
>large number of new authors choosing to self-publish (some with the
>help of non-traditional "publishers" who essentially act as a
>"work-for-hire" agent to assist with some of the steps to make an
>author's book available to the public.)
>
>It should come as no surprise, then, that I am not swayed by the
>arguments of the "traditional publisher" camp of e-book publishers.
>This camp says that since the traditional model "works", that this
>model should be, will be, and must be, essentially preserved in
>our e-book future.
>
>And many of this camp have put their beliefs into action, setting up
>publishing houses in the traditional model where they take submissions
>of manuscripts (the "slush pile") and for any they see merit will then
>carry it through the entire process: editing, production, release, and
>marketing. Some even pay advances on royalties like many traditional
>paper book publishers do. All the power to them, of course!
>
>In my opinion, it doesn't matter what the "traditional" proponents
>may try to say, though, since the dynamics of the publishing
>marketplace are naturally moving, like a freight train, towards the
>"publish then filter" model. It is a foregone conclusion. To say the
>future will be like the past is like spitting in the wind (pardon me
>for being so graphic!)
>
>Before the reader may misinterpet what I just said, note that I still
>believe readers will need a "filter" to find, among the zillions of
>published books, what they want to read -- books which meet their
>expectations. With such huge numbers of titles available to them, the
>reader will get completely overwhelmed unless they are provided with
>the tools they need to filter through the pile to make a buying
>decision. Without such tools, they will end up buying books only from
>the few well-known major publishers which they recognize, such as
>Random House, S&S, etc.
>
>Not only that, the sheer number of titles is making it much more
>difficult for the works produced by the smaller "traditional"
>publishers to even be seen -- their marketing call saying that "we
>only pick the finest books to publish" is getting lost in the noise,
>especially in that most readers won't even recognize the publisher
>("yes, I know 'Random House', but who are you?") Most self-published
>authors usually set-up their own "publishing house" name anyway,
>making it very difficult for the traditional e-book publishers to
>stand out from a very large crowd -- to build a reputation.
>
>Thinking as an entrepreneur, I see opportunities where others see
>problems. The opportunity is to help the reader filter through the
>huge number of available self-published titles and find what they
>want to read. There are a number of ways the entrepeneur can approach
>this, both by taking what still works from the "traditional" model,
>and by embracing new technologies and methodologies -- thinking
>outside the proverbial box.
>
>As an example of adjusting the traditional model, one idea I floated
>ten years ago was the "book marketing agent" model. In this model, the
>agent treats the huge mass of self-published titles as a sort of
>"giant slush pile" (and it behooves self-published authors to make
>their e-books freely available to such agents -- I have a couple ideas
>to enable this handshake), and for the titles the agent believes they
>can market and make money -- to approach the authors with a marketing
>(not publishing!) contract. This is essentially a splitting up of the
>multiple tasks the traditional publisher does.
>
>On the technological side, the rise of online social networking
>systems (where information and recommendations can be rapidly shared
>from person-to-person and person-to-group), mass text indexing (like
>Google), various Web 2.0 and Semantic Web technologies, text analysis
>software, etc., gives new tools and methodologies to help both the
>reader find the books they want to read, as well as to greatly help
>self-published authors to market their books so they can survive the
>various "filters" if their book is good.
>
>I cannot predict the specifics of how it will all shake out, but I
>am certain that the "publish then filter" will become the dominant
>publishing model in the future, and those who adapt to it, such as
>implementing new ideas to take advantage of this eventuality, will
>be the ones to profit. After all, entrepreneurs succeed when they
>come up with solutions to problems (e.g. consumer aggravations), and
>the aggravation book buyers will have is trying to find a "good read"
>from among the millions of available, essentially self-published
>titles.
>
>Of course, just my $0.02 worth.
>
>Thoughts? Alternatives? Criticisms?
>
>Jon Noring
>DigitalPulp Publishing
>
>								


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