Re: Neat summary of Google strategy

This is a good analysis but I'd like to elaborate it a little. To begin 
with we need to make a clear distinction between fiction and 
non-fiction. New fiction books are bought for entertainment, and as such 
they compete with all other forms of entertainment including existing 
fiction. At the moment the high price of books is propped up by the 
physicality of the product and the need for a chain of intermediaries in 
the distribution process. Just as the price of music CDs and video DVDs 
came down dramatically in the years following their introduction, so the 
price of fiction will come down (_is_ coming down) dramatically when it 
becomes possible to distribute it electronically. Of course some popular 
'name' authors will continue to command higher prices, but genre fiction 
may return to the pulp tradition of being produced as work for hire by 
house authors -- a system that worked very well (for readers at least) 
for several decades.

Some non-fiction falls into this 'replaceable' category and we can 
expect the price of that to come down in the same way. Some non-fiction 
is based on topical issues -- books about Obama's dog, for instance -- 
and can be expected to retain at least some of its current pricing 
structure: released at an inflated price, after which its value rapidly 
drops to near zero as the issue moves out of the public awareness. 
Textbooks have their own inflated pricing structure due to the informal 
cartels which control user demand, but there are signs that this is 
eroding, and textbook prices may soon drop to reflect their value rather 
than the price set by enforced demand and limited supply.

Finally there are books of economic value, like the Linux Command Line 
Bible I have on my desk at the moment. I happily paid full price for 
that because it contains what I need to know as a professional, in a 
convenient and well-written package. And these are the books which will 
retain their prices best, whether in paper or electronic form.

Bear in mind too that electronic books don't require space and don't 
degenerate. (I'm currently throwing out a whole bookcase of elderly 
books because they give off dust that aggravates allergies.) Once the 
eBabel problem is fixed, then even without illegal copying it will be 
easy for any middle-class family to accumulate a few thousand books they 
can pass on to their children or swap with friends. Local and school 
libraries will no longer have to weed last year's books in order to fit 
this year's: they can accumulate a vast back catalogue -- all of which 
is going to reduce the value of new books even further.

As time goes by, writing new fiction may become as profitless as adding 
salt to seawater.

Jon.

Chris wrote:
> On Mon, 8 Jun 2009, Marion Gropen wrote:
> 
--snipped --
>> -- There are always a LOT of alternative works that could be 
>> used. It's just not very likely that you've found the one and 
>> only work that fits your need. It's a classic newbie mistake to 
>> think that his or her book is unique, and I think it would be 
>> similarly off-base to think that an orphan work is 
>> irreplaceable.
> 
> This comment has been leaving me with a very uneasy feeling for 
> two weeks now. And to be clear - that's because I'm thinking it 
> might be *right*, not because I think it is wrong.
> 
> If this is generally true - that for any given book, there are 
> alternatives that fit the role to some degree - then it's likely 
> going to be true for any book -- even new ones. This is not to 
> say that one book isn't going to be a better fit than the rest, 
> and that it can justify a higher value. But in general, this is 
> going to mean that the greater the sheer volume a book is 
> competing against, the less it can justify its value above its 
> competitors. And to be clear - I don't have a problem thinking 
> that in many cases, paper books are competing against video and 
> audio in all it's various forms, as well as competing against 
> electronic text.
> 


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