RE: The Apple iPad and the future of e-ink ebook readers

I believe the guy from Forrester is right -- the iPad is likely to increase
demand for ebooks and for dedicated ebook devices.

As I put it in my blog (http:/www.samizdat.com/blog/) --

What's you take on the iPad as an ebook reader?

The press seems to consider the iPad as competition to Kindle and Sony ebook
readers.  But it is designed as a general purpose computer, not as an ebook
reader.

While it's possible to read text on it, I see no reason why anyone would
want to read on it any more than they'd want to read on any general purpose
computer.  While it's possible, it's not desirable, because the backlit
screen makes it hard on the eyes.

Also, the form factor matters.  The Kindle and the Sony are about the size
of a paperback, fit in a pocket, can easily be carried around.  The iPad is
too big for book reading comfort.  (I understand that the DX (larger screen
than the original Kindle) did not do very well.)

The free wireless connection of the Kindle also matters.  The Kindle folks
designed their device so there's no need for a computer.  Hence it appeals
to a very wide audience.

The press makes a big deal out of Apple agreements with a few major book
publishers.  It looks like Apple wants to make sure that best sellers will
be available for the iPad -- as a way to sell iPads.  It's hard to tell if
Apple wants to sell tens of thousands of different titles directly.  I doubt
it.

There are apps for the ipod and the iphone that handle Kindle books.  And
all the iPod and iPhone apps will work on the iPad from day one. (I don't
know about the Sony, but I'd be surprised if there weren't apps for that
format as well. Do you know?)

So I'd suspect that Apple would promote the apps and/or try to make deals
wth  with Amazon or Sony or Barnes and Noble to make lots of books available
quickly, rather than start from scratch.

I also see "A spokesman for Amazon did not comment on whether they were
worried the iPad would affect sales of Kindle readers, but said in an e-mail
message that customers would soon be able to sync their Kindle books to the
iPad."

That sounds like a very good idea.

I expect that the iPad will develop into an alternate way of reading the
same books (thanks largely to apps -- making books for Sony, Barnes and
Noble, and Amazon all readable on the iPad).  In other words, many people
would have both rather than one or the other, and do their current reading
on the device that's most convenient, keeping their books in synch; so they
can read chapter one on the one and then pick up another device and continue
reading where they left off.

So while the iPad will compete with Kindle and Sony and Barnes & Noble as a
book reading device, it will probably increase the market for ebooks sold by
those three, in a world in which people read on multiple devices, and, due
to apps, devices are able to display multiple formats.

In general, the press seems to have focused on ebook devices rather than on
ebooks.  For instance, Computer World
http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9149902/iPad_to_have_big_impact_on_e_
reader_market_?source=CTWNLE_nlt_pm_2010-01-28
"Both Yankee Group and analyst firm In-Stat are still bullish on the
e-reader market. In-Stat said nearly 1 million e-readers shipped in 2008,
and that number will grow to 28 million in 2013. For its part, Yankee Group
said e-reader sales hit about $400 million in 2009 and will explode to $2.5
billion in 2013."

I believe that puts the emphasis in the wrong place.

I believe that Amazon and Barnes & Noble see the devices as a way to sell
books.  They'd both gladly sell books to be read on other companies'
devices.

You could say that the device is the razor and the ebook is the blade, that
the real money is to be made from the ebooks and that eventually the devices
might be priced extremely low or even given away.

But I don't think things will work out that way either.  Yes, the real money
is in the books.  But the books will not be limited for reading on a single
device; and the devices won't be limited to reading books of a single
format.  In other words, the seller of a particular device won't in any
sense "own" the customers who buy that device.

_____________

Best wishes.

Richard

Richard Seltzer, seltzer-LVbi7B8qMF5Wk0Htik3J/[email protected], 617-469-2269
http://www.samizdat.com, http://www.samizdat.com/blog,
http://twitter.com/richardseltzer
Book collections on CD and DVD http://samizdat.stores.yahoo.net/
3700+ ebooks for Amazon's Kindle http://www.samizdat.com/kindle 5000+ for
Sony and 5700+ for Barnes and Noble
As featured in the New York Times
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/04/09/arts/09conn.html






-----Original Message-----
From: [email protected]
[mailto:[email protected]]On Behalf Of jlandahl2003
Sent: Friday, January 29, 2010 3:04 PM
To: [email protected]
Subject: [ebook-community] The Apple iPad and the future of e-ink ebook
readers


After Wednesday's high-profile announcement of the Apple iPad with epub
support and a base price of $499, the reaction of one initially skeptical
contributor to the MobileRead forums was "At that price point they basically
just killed all e-ink devices, unless they start pumping them out at $50
each, which is highly unlikely. Amazon will probably survive as some kind of
app, maybe, but who knows. Sony's dead in this game now. $499 is a price
point that kills everything else dead, no matter what my initial reactions
were."  Other enthusiastic and well-informed ebook fans chimed in to agree
with this assessment.<br>
<br>
However, a story in BusinessWeek this morning reported, "But after seeing
Apple's expected "Kindle killer," some analysts don't think the iPad will do
much to hurt sales of the Kindle [and] Forrester analyst James McQuivey
agrees, and is even considering raising his estimate on total sales of the
Kindle and other single-purpose e-book readers in 2010 to 7 million, from
his previous estimate of 6 million.<br>
<br>
Those are pretty diametrically opposed viewpoints.  Many members of TeBC
have long followed the twists and turns of the ebook industry (I myself
started with the Rocket eBook over 10 years ago).  Much as I enjoy reading
on my Kindle 2, It's easy for me to see why people think a relatively
inexpensive color multipurpose device would outshine and outsell a
gray-scale single-purpose one.  Anyone have any insight into why a
presumably astute Forrester analyst might reach the counterintuitive
conclusion that the iPad might actually help sales of e-ink readers?



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