more on one percent market share, Re: All hail the new iPhone

an ipod is real easy compsared to a cell phone

Begin forwarded message:

From: Michael Berman <[email protected]>
Date: January 12, 2007 3:58:18 PM EST
To: David Farber <[email protected]>
Subject: Re: one percent market share, Re: [IP] All hail the new iPhone

Apple sold 22.5 million iPods in fiscal 2005, according to their 10k for
that year. So 10 million phones in 2008 doesn't sound like a big  
stretch.


On 1/12/07 12:31 PM, "David Farber" <[email protected]> wrote:

>
>
> Begin forwarded message:
>
> From: Ed Gerck <[email protected]>
> Date: January 12, 2007 3:18:20 PM EST
> To: [email protected]
> Cc: [email protected]
> Subject: one percent market share, Re: [IP] All hail the new iPhone
>
> David,
>
> I was surprised with Steve Jobs' market argument for reaching Apple's
> sales goal for the iPhone. He justified selling 10 million iPhone/year
> by saying that it was only 1% of the market (dominated by tough  
> players,
> he said).
>
> Well, using very low percentages to make a very high number more
> credible is
> an old trick, and a well-known bad example in marketing 101, that a
> lot of
> investors are rightfully wary of (even Steve's clicker did not like  
> it).
>
> But 10 million units of new hardware + software per year, with no
> customer
> support or warranty service in place, is still a very high number --
> very low
> percentage or not.
>
> Furthermore, what is Apple experience in selling 10 million units of
> anything,
> not mention anything as complex as a combination of "phone + iPod +
> Internet
> interface"?  Just selling and servicing 10 million iPods would be a
> challenge,
> one might think.
>
> I wonder what IP'ers would think.
>
> BTW, perhaps a nice result of the iPhone is that Mac users may now
> finally get a new
> version of Safari. Last update: Version 2.0.4 (419.3), (c) 2005.
>
> Best,
> Ed Gerck
>
>
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A. Michael Berman, Senior Vice President/Chief Technology Officer
Art Center College of Design
1700 Lida Street, Pasadena, CA 91103 USA
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