[CAnet - news] Some excellent reports on investment and economics of FTTH

For more information on this item please visit my blog at=20
http://green-broadband.blogspot.com/ or http://billstarnaud.blogspot.com
-------------------------------------------

 [In the last few weeks there have been several excellent reports on the
investment and economics of FTTH networks. As well the OECD should be =
soon
releasing their annual broadband report on this subject. Gordon Cooks
ARCH-Econ list is the source of man of these pointers--BSA]

All the presentations of the OECD workshop on FTTH are now available:
http://www.oecd.org/document/56/0,3343,en_2649_34225_40460600_1_1_1_1,00.=
htm
l

Of particular note is the presentation by Herman Wagter of CityNet of
Amsterdam which convincingly demonstrates how separating ownership of =
fiber
from companies who deliver services allows for true facilities based
competition where competitors can use different layer 0 technologies for
delivering services
http://www.oecd.org/dataoecd/36/28/40460647.pdf


Benoit Felten also maintains an excellent blog on the various =
presentations
that were given at the OECD workshop:
http://www.fiberevolution.com

Hendrik Rood of Stratix Consulting has just released a very interesting
report on FTTH developments in The Netherlands who have one of the =
highest
penetration of FTTH in the world. At the end of the 1st quarter in 2008 =
the
Netherlands had 176 thousand FTTH connections.

Direct link to the Stratix paper:=20
http://www.stratix.nl/documents/FTTH-B-C%20overview%201Q%202008.pdf

Of particular note the paper goes into considerable detail explaining =
the
arrival of Institutional investors (Pension funds etc.) with a real =
estate
approach in funding open network infrastructure and the recognition by =
the
incumbent operator KPN that this model may suit their business needs as
well.

"Market entry by infrastructure facility providers with a Real Estate
approach like independent Tower companies for mobile service providers =
and
neutral data centre and telehouse facility owners, the development of =
FTTH
in the Netherlands have shown the arrival of a new kind of market =
entrant:
Real Estate financers investing in local loop networks.

The entry of real estate finance may act as a harbinger of a novel =
market
structure with non-incumbents owning those infrastructure facilities =
with
real estate characteristics. Their market arrival could have lasting
consequences for regulatory policy of communications infrastructure.

As the Dutch market is now genuinely warming up to Fiber-to-the-Home, =
while
the new open business models with real estate oriented investors are
established, Stratix Consulting expects a new development stage with a
run-for-the-market, where the market consists of local FTTH projects. =
Such a
stage has happened before in the 1881-1900 period with telephony roll =
out
and the 1960-1980 period of CATV network deployment.

Local loop economics indicates only one network per area to be feasible, =
in
particular under the open network business models. With financiers =
stepping
in and supply constraints visible in construction, we expect mounting
citizenry pressure on municipalities and provinces to lure the projects =
to
their area first, aiding constructors by facilitating community drives.



New ITIF Report:  "Explaining International Broadband Leadership"=20
http://www.itif.org/files/ExplainingBBLeadership.pdf.

The executive summary does not do this report justice. There are dozens =
of
hidden gems within the report.  I recommend reading the report in its
entirety. I was very pleased to see from the report's regression =
analysis
that price has the strongest correlation with broadband penetration. =
This is
something that I have been claiming, based on a paper written for =
Scientific
American way back in 1993!!  This paper demonstrated, for a variety of
telecommunication technologies - telephone, cable, PC - price was the =
single
biggest determining factor for adoption rates. Most people are surprised
that the telephone took over 75 years to reach 50% penetration.  But if =
you
measure the price of telephony in terms of per average per capita =
income,
you discover historically it has been a very expensive technology.  And =
what
drives price ?----competition!


"In a new report examining in depth broadband policies in 9 nations the
Information Technology and Innovation Foundation concludes that while we
shouldn't look to other nations for silver bullets or assume that =
practices
in one nation will automatically work in another, U.S. policymakers can =
and
should look to broadband best practices in other nations.  Learning the
right lessons and emulating the right policies here will enable the =
United
States to improve our broadband performance faster than in the absence =
of
proactive policies.  The report analyzes the extent to which policy and
non-policy factors drive broadband performance, and how broadband =
policies
related to national leadership, incentives, competition, rural access, =
and
consumer demand affect national broadband performance.  Based on these
findings the report makes a number of recommendations to boost U.S.
broadband performance.=20

Also included in the report are the updated 2008 ITIF Broadband =
Rankings, a
composite measure of broadband penetration, speed and price among OECD
countries.   When these factors are considered together, the United =
States
ranks 15th out of 30 OECD nations in broadband performance.

The executive summary can be accessed at
http://www.itif.org/files/2008BBExecutiveSummary.pdf.
 =20
The full report can be accessed at
http://www.itif.org/files/ExplainingBBLeadership.pdf."



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-----------
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