Re: Underwater mortgages and the economy

Dan Minette wrote:
>
>> Or a negative black swan, pardon me for pointing out what might happen.
>> The blackest of black swans.
> 
> It is quite possible that we falter over the next two years, sliding back
> into depression.  One of the most depressing figures is that the average
> GDP growth rate for the last 30 years will result in unemployment
> increasing, since we need 3%/year growth to tread water.
> 
> China will continue to rise, because planned economies work well with no
> surprises.  We will have exhausted the wonders of invention and new
> possibilities that have fueled this nation since its start, and we will
> fall behind a ruthless dictatorship, who will bring a new world order. 
> For example, our "green" cars are economical because China has an
> environment be damned technique for processing rare earths....and sells
> very cheaply because of that.
> 
> We'll spend all of our money on things like bypass surgery for 90 years old
> Alzheimer patients.  Palin will be President with a cowed Democratic
> minority rolling over and playing dead.  The Hispanics and blacks will say
> a plague on both your houses, and not vote, and the poor whites (who I
> live amongst) will focus on the elitist tendencies of the Democrats and
> would rather have an economic than an intellectual elite rule.
> 
> It's possible, but not probable, thankfully.  This was predicted in the
> '80s remember.  
>
Sorry for the long, unedited quote, but this was not _predicted_
in the 80s, this was _written about_ in the 40s, by many
science fiction writers.

Orwell (for the World) and Heinlein (Nehemiah Scudder, for the USA)
wrote about that, and since they wrote about that, this will
not happen. Not unless suddenly everybody becomes illiterate.
That's Brin's ideas about the importance of sf: to paint
such a horrible future that people will fight to prevent it. Maybe
the Holocaust could have been prevented had more people
read Monteiro Lobato's "O Presidente Negro" (an awfully
racist and anti-american book, BTW).

> China has lotsa problems that it hides because it controls
> all media.  I predict it will be the new Japan.  And, the US still has
> abundant natural resources. 
>
And you are not using it - the USA economy could benefit if the
USA could lift the ban on exporting oil and gas.

Alberto Monteiro