Re: Underwater mortgages and the economy

On 04/11/2010, at 8:32 AM, Dan Minette wrote:

> 
>> It is quite possible that we falter over the next two years, sliding back
>> into depression.  One of the most depressing figures is that the average
> GDP
>> growth rate for the last 30 years will result in unemployment increasing,
>> since we need 3%/year growth to tread water.
> 
>> Not what I meant, sorry, but I was sticking with your definition of
>> black swan as a solution to economic malaise.
> 
>> War, global conflict, would be the most drastic "solution".
> 
> Well, the US did prosper from wars it has been in, but that's fairly unique.

ARRRRRGH!! "it's unusual" "it's very rare" OR "it's unique". Unique can't take a qualifier except maybe "possibly" or "almost" and even then you need care. Sorry, bugbear.

> Germany didn't, France didn't.  The USSR didn't; the Cold War broke them.
> The UK lost its fortune in WWI and WWII.  

We profited from lots of wars. Your point may be "countries can't prosper from wars repeatedly" which is a lesson the USA is about to learn.

> 
> And, 'Nam hurt the US economy after a while.  We couldn't afford "guns and
> butter" as the saying went at the time.  Even those who argued it was a
> mangled but essential part of containment, it cost.

And the USA is in a far worse position now - a similar war that's unwinnable, and a far worse economic situation. Interesting, in a bad way.

And now with the mid-term results you're even worse off... Spiralling is the word, i think.

Charlie.