Sagan (too good not to share)

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9 questions Carl Sagan encourages you to ask before believing anything anyo=
ne has to say
May 25, 20173 minute readby=C2=A0The Power of IdeasIn=C2=A0Philosophy & Cul=
ture,=C2=A0Science & TechnologyScroll thisWe all know who Carl Sagan is. A =
well-known scientist, philosopher and champion of reason, he helped bring s=
cience to a much larger audience.In his popular book published only months =
before his death,=C2=A0Demon-Haunted World: Science as a candle in the Dark=
, Sagan shared the secret to practising reason in daily life.Rather than pr=
eaching and talking about it philosophically, Sagan decided to offer us som=
e practical advice in what he calls the =E2=80=9CBaloney Detection Kit=E2=
=80=9D.Here=E2=80=99s how Sagan describes The Baloney Detection Kit:=E2=80=
=9CThe kit is brought out as a matter of course whenever new ideas are offe=
red for consideration. If the new idea survives examination by the tools in=
 our kit, we grant it warm, although tentative, acceptance. If you=E2=80=99=
re so inclined, if you don=E2=80=99t want to buy baloney even when it=E2=80=
=99s reassuring to do so, there are precautions that can be taken; there=E2=
=80=99s a tried-and-true, consumer-tested method.=E2=80=9D
So without further ado, here are Carl Sagan=E2=80=99s 9 questions we all ne=
ed to ask whenever we encounter new knowledge:=C2=A0
1. Wherever possible there must be independent confirmation of the =E2=80=
=9Cfacts.=E2=80=9D2. Encourage substantive debate on the evidence by knowle=
dgeable proponents of all points of view.3. Arguments from authority carry =
little weight =E2=80=94 =E2=80=9Cauthorities=E2=80=9D have made mistakes in=
 the past. They will do so again in the future. Perhaps a better way to say=
 it is that in science there are no authorities; at most, there are experts=
.4. Spin more than one hypothesis. If there=E2=80=99s something to be expla=
ined, think of all the different ways in which it could be explained. Then =
think of tests by which you might systematically disprove each of the alter=
natives. What survives, the hypothesis that resists disproof in this Darwin=
ian selection among =E2=80=9Cmultiple working hypotheses,=E2=80=9D has a mu=
ch better chance of being the right answer than if you had simply run with =
the first idea that caught your fancy.5. Try not to get overly attached to =
a hypothesis just because it=E2=80=99s yours. It=E2=80=99s only a way stati=
on in the pursuit of knowledge. Ask yourself why you like the idea. Compare=
 it fairly with the alternatives. See if you can find reasons for rejecting=
 it. If you don=E2=80=99t, others will.6. Quantify. If whatever it is you=
=E2=80=99re explaining has some measure, some numerical quantity attached t=
o it, you=E2=80=99ll be much better able to discriminate among competing hy=
potheses. What is vague and qualitative is open to many explanations. Of co=
urse there are truths to be sought in the many qualitative issues we are ob=
liged to confront, but finding them is more challenging.7. If there=E2=80=
=99s a chain of argument, every link in the chain must work (including the =
premise) =E2=80=94 not just most of them.8. Occam=E2=80=99s Razor. This con=
venient rule-of-thumb urges us when faced with two hypotheses that explain =
the data equally well to choose the simpler.9. Always ask whether the hypot=
hesis can be, at least in principle, falsified. Propositions that are untes=
table, unfalsifiable are not worth much. Consider the grand idea that our U=
niverse and everything in it is just an elementary particle =E2=80=94 an el=
ectron, say =E2=80=94 in a much bigger Cosmos. But if we can never acquire =
information from outside our Universe, is not the idea incapable of disproo=
f? You must be able to check assertions out. Inveterate skeptics must be gi=
ven the chance to follow your reasoning, to duplicate your experiments and =
see if they get the same result.
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<iframe width=3D"336" height=3D"280" frameborder=3D"0" marginwidth=3D"0" ma=
rginheight=3D"0" vspace=3D"0" hspace=3D"0" allowtransparency=3D"true" scrol=
ling=3D"no" allowfullscreen=3D"true" name=3D"aswift_1" style=3D"box-sizing:=
 inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border-width: 0px; border-style: initi=
al; vertical-align: baseline; max-width: 100%; left: 0px; ; top: 0px; width=
: 336px; min-height: 280px;" id=3D"yui_3_16_0_1_1497400051335_2999"></ifram=
e></ins></ins></ins></div><div style=3D"box-sizing: inherit; font-size: 20p=
x; border: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; margin-bottom: 30px !important;" =
id=3D"yui_3_16_0_1_1497400051335_3000">We all know who Carl Sagan is. A wel=
l-known scientist, philosopher and champion of reason, he helped bring scie=
nce to a much larger audience.</div><div style=3D"box-sizing: inherit; font=
-size: 20px; border: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; margin-bottom: 30px !im=
portant;" id=3D"yui_3_16_0_1_1497400051335_3001">In his popular book publis=
hed only months before his death,&nbsp;<a href=3D"https://www.amazon.com/ex=
ec/obidos/ASIN/0345409469/" style=3D"box-sizing: inherit; border-width: 0px=
 0px 2px; border-top-style: initial; border-right-style: initial; border-bo=
ttom-style: solid; border-left-style: initial; border-color: rgb(83, 179, 1=
40); border-image: initial; vertical-align: baseline; color: rgb(17, 17, 17=
); text-decoration-line: none;" id=3D"yui_3_16_0_1_1497400051335_3002">Demo=
n-Haunted World: Science as a candle in the Dark</a>, Sagan shared the secr=
et to practising reason in daily life.</div><div style=3D"box-sizing: inher=
it; font-size: 20px; border: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; margin-bottom: =
30px !important;" id=3D"yui_3_16_0_1_1497400051335_3003">Rather than preach=
ing and talking about it philosophically, Sagan decided to offer us some pr=
actical advice in what he calls the =E2=80=9CBaloney Detection Kit=E2=80=9D=
.</div><div style=3D"box-sizing: inherit; font-size: 20px; border: 0px; ver=
tical-align: baseline; margin-bottom: 30px !important;" id=3D"yui_3_16_0_1_=
1497400051335_3004">Here=E2=80=99s how Sagan describes The Baloney Detectio=
n Kit:</div><div style=3D"box-sizing: inherit; font-size: 20px; border: 0px=
; vertical-align: baseline; margin-bottom: 30px !important;" id=3D"yui_3_16=
_0_1_1497400051335_3005">=E2=80=9CThe kit is brought out as a matter of cou=
rse whenever new ideas are offered for consideration. If the new idea survi=
ves examination by the tools in our kit, we grant it warm, although tentati=
ve, acceptance. If you=E2=80=99re so inclined, if you don=E2=80=99t want to=
 buy baloney even when it=E2=80=99s reassuring to do so, there are precauti=
ons that can be taken; there=E2=80=99s a tried-and-true, consumer-tested me=
thod.=E2=80=9D</div><div style=3D"box-sizing: inherit; margin: 8px auto; pa=
dding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 20px; vertical-align: baseline; text-al=
ign: center;" id=3D"yui_3_16_0_1_1497400051335_3006"><ins data-ad-client=3D=
"ca-pub-5246013213939233" data-ad-slot=3D"5757383900" data-ad-format=3D"aut=
o" data-adsbygoogle-status=3D"done" style=3D"box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0=
px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration-li=
ne: none; display: block; min-height: 90px;" id=3D"yui_3_16_0_1_14974000513=
35_3007"><ins style=3D"box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; bord=
er: none; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration-line: none; display: in=
line-table; min-height: 90px; position: relative; visibility: visible; widt=
h: 780px; background-color: transparent;" id=3D"yui_3_16_0_1_1497400051335_=
3008"><ins style=3D"box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border:=
 none; vertical-align: baseline; text-decoration-line: none; display: block=
; min-height: 90px; position: relative; visibility: visible; width: 780px; =
background-color: transparent;" id=3D"yui_3_16_0_1_1497400051335_3009"><ifr=
ame width=3D"780" height=3D"90" frameborder=3D"0" marginwidth=3D"0" marginh=
eight=3D"0" vspace=3D"0" hspace=3D"0" allowtransparency=3D"true" scrolling=
=3D"no" allowfullscreen=3D"true" name=3D"aswift_2" style=3D"box-sizing: inh=
erit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border-width: 0px; border-style: initial; =
vertical-align: baseline; max-width: 100%; left: 0px; ; top: 0px; width: 78=
0px; min-height: 90px;" id=3D"yui_3_16_0_1_1497400051335_3010"></iframe></i=
ns></ins></ins></div><h3 style=3D"box-sizing: inherit; margin-top: 0px; mar=
gin-bottom: 1.375rem; border: 0px; font-size: 1.4375rem; vertical-align: ba=
seline; font-family: Montserrat;" id=3D"yui_3_16_0_1_1497400051335_3011"><s=
trong style=3D"box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px;=
 font-size: 23px; vertical-align: baseline;" id=3D"yui_3_16_0_1_14974000513=
35_3012">So without further ado, here are Carl Sagan=E2=80=99s 9 questions =
we all need to ask whenever we encounter new knowledge:&nbsp;</strong></h3>=
<div style=3D"box-sizing: inherit; font-size: 20px; border: 0px; vertical-a=
lign: baseline; margin-bottom: 30px !important;" id=3D"yui_3_16_0_1_1497400=
051335_3013">1. Wherever possible there must be independent confirmation of=
 the =E2=80=9Cfacts.=E2=80=9D</div><div style=3D"box-sizing: inherit; font-=
size: 20px; border: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; margin-bottom: 30px !imp=
ortant;" id=3D"yui_3_16_0_1_1497400051335_3014">2. Encourage substantive de=
bate on the evidence by knowledgeable proponents of all points of view.</di=
v><div style=3D"box-sizing: inherit; font-size: 20px; border: 0px; vertical=
-align: baseline; margin-bottom: 30px !important;" id=3D"yui_3_16_0_1_14974=
00051335_3015">3. Arguments from authority carry little weight =E2=80=94 =
=E2=80=9Cauthorities=E2=80=9D have made mistakes in the past. They will do =
so again in the future. Perhaps a better way to say it is that in science t=
here are no authorities; at most, there are experts.</div><div style=3D"box=
-sizing: inherit; font-size: 20px; border: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; m=
argin-bottom: 30px !important;" id=3D"yui_3_16_0_1_1497400051335_3016">4. S=
pin more than one hypothesis. If there=E2=80=99s something to be explained,=
 think of all the different ways in which it could be explained. Then think=
 of tests by which you might systematically disprove each of the alternativ=
es. What survives, the hypothesis that resists disproof in this Darwinian s=
election among =E2=80=9Cmultiple working hypotheses,=E2=80=9D has a much be=
tter chance of being the right answer than if you had simply run with the f=
irst idea that caught your fancy.</div><div style=3D"box-sizing: inherit; m=
argin: 8px 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; font-size: 20px; vertical-align:=
 baseline;" id=3D"yui_3_16_0_1_1497400051335_3017"><ins data-ad-format=3D"f=
luid" data-ad-layout=3D"in-article" data-ad-client=3D"ca-pub-52460132139392=
33" data-ad-slot=3D"8710850302" data-adsbygoogle-status=3D"done" style=3D"b=
ox-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: 0px; vertical-align:=
 baseline; text-decoration-line: none; display: block; text-align: center; =
min-height: 497px;" id=3D"yui_3_16_0_1_1497400051335_3018"><ins style=3D"bo=
x-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: none; vertical-align:=
 baseline; text-decoration-line: none; display: inline-table; min-height: 4=
97px; position: relative; visibility: visible; width: 700px; background-col=
or: transparent;" id=3D"yui_3_16_0_1_1497400051335_3019"><ins style=3D"box-=
sizing: inherit; margin: 0px; padding: 0px; border: none; vertical-align: b=
aseline; text-decoration-line: none; display: block; min-height: 497px; pos=
ition: relative; visibility: visible; width: 700px; background-color: trans=
parent;" id=3D"yui_3_16_0_1_1497400051335_3020"><iframe width=3D"700" heigh=
t=3D"497" frameborder=3D"0" marginwidth=3D"0" marginheight=3D"0" vspace=3D"=
0" hspace=3D"0" allowtransparency=3D"true" scrolling=3D"no" allowfullscreen=
=3D"true" name=3D"aswift_3" style=3D"box-sizing: inherit; margin: 0px; padd=
ing: 0px; border-width: 0px; border-style: initial; vertical-align: baselin=
e; max-width: 100%; left: 0px; ; top: 0px; width: 700px; min-height: 497px;=
" id=3D"yui_3_16_0_1_1497400051335_3021"></iframe></ins></ins></ins></div><=
div style=3D"box-sizing: inherit; font-size: 20px; border: 0px; vertical-al=
ign: baseline; margin-bottom: 30px !important;" id=3D"yui_3_16_0_1_14974000=
51335_3022">5. Try not to get overly attached to a hypothesis just because =
it=E2=80=99s yours. It=E2=80=99s only a way station in the pursuit of knowl=
edge. Ask yourself why you like the idea. Compare it fairly with the altern=
atives. See if you can find reasons for rejecting it. If you don=E2=80=99t,=
 others will.</div><div style=3D"box-sizing: inherit; font-size: 20px; bord=
er: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; margin-bottom: 30px !important;" id=3D"y=
ui_3_16_0_1_1497400051335_3023">6. Quantify. If whatever it is you=E2=80=99=
re explaining has some measure, some numerical quantity attached to it, you=
=E2=80=99ll be much better able to discriminate among competing hypotheses.=
 What is vague and qualitative is open to many explanations. Of course ther=
e are truths to be sought in the many qualitative issues we are obliged to =
confront, but finding them is more challenging.</div><div style=3D"box-sizi=
ng: inherit; font-size: 20px; border: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; margin=
-bottom: 30px !important;" id=3D"yui_3_16_0_1_1497400051335_3024">7. If the=
re=E2=80=99s a chain of argument, every link in the chain must work (includ=
ing the premise) =E2=80=94 not just most of them.</div><div style=3D"box-si=
zing: inherit; font-size: 20px; border: 0px; vertical-align: baseline; marg=
in-bottom: 30px !important;" id=3D"yui_3_16_0_1_1497400051335_3025">8. Occa=
m=E2=80=99s Razor. This convenient rule-of-thumb urges us when faced with t=
wo hypotheses that explain the data equally well to choose the simpler.</di=
v><div style=3D"box-sizing: inherit; font-size: 20px; border: 0px; vertical=
-align: baseline; margin-bottom: 30px !important;" dir=3D"ltr" id=3D"yui_3_=
16_0_1_1497400051335_3026">9. Always ask whether the hypothesis can be, at =
least in principle, falsified. Propositions that are untestable, unfalsifia=
ble are not worth much. Consider the grand idea that our Universe and every=
thing in it is just an elementary particle =E2=80=94 an electron, say =E2=
=80=94 in a much bigger Cosmos. But if we can never acquire information fro=
m outside our Universe, is not the idea incapable of disproof? You must be =
able to check assertions out. Inveterate skeptics must be given the chance =
to follow your reasoning, to duplicate your experiments and see if they get=
 the same result.</div></div></article></main></div></body></html>
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