Fw: PUBL.- Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 3 July 2002 Issue on Web

----- Original Message -----
From: "Svante Cornell" <[email protected]>
To: <[email protected]>
Sent: Saturday, July 20, 2002 2:54 AM
Subject: PUBL.- Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 3 July 2002 Issue on Web


> A distribution of: CentralAsia-L - Announcement List for Central Asian
Studies
>
>
> PUBL.- Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 3 July 2002 Issue on Web
>
> The 3 July 2002 Issue of the Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, a subscription
> free Web journal with over 116,000 visitors to the site since January 2000
is
> now on-line at http://www.cacianalyst.org/
>
> The Central Asia-Caucasus Institute of The Johns Hopkins University-The
Nitze
> School of Advanced International Studies is proud to announce the
publication
> of the 3 July 2002 issue of its biweekly Web-Journal, The Central Asia-
> Caucasus Analyst.
>
> The Institute also offers its readers the option of downloading The
Analyst in
> PDF format, enabling readers to view and print out the entire issue of The
> Analyst. The html version will, of course, remain available.
>
> THE ANALYTICAL ARTICLES INCLUDE:
>
> THE NORTH ­ SOUTH TRANSPORT CORRIDOR
> Regine A. Spector
> Over the past five years, the United States and the European Union have
> emphasized the important role of countries of the Caucasus and Central
Asia in
> the development of East-West energy and transport routes, linking Central
and
> South Asia with Europe. Less noted, however, have been ongoing
developments in
> the creation of North-South transport routes linking markets in South Asia
> with Europe via Iran and Russia. While recent analyses of Russian-Iranian
> relations have largely focused on weapons and technology transfers from
Russia
> to Iran, the nascent North-South transport corridor signals an attempt to
> restore the historic trade of conventional commodities between South Asia
and
> Europe. This project also demonstrates the common interest of regional
> countries to multiply the number of trade route options that extend north
and
> south, as well as east and west.
>
> THE TURKMEN CHALLENGE IN RUSSIAN-U.S.-RELATIONS
> Stephen Blank
> The new U.S.-Russian partnership expressly includes joint discussions and
> actions in Central Asia. As discussion on energy issues show,  these
> discussions are not restricted to the war on terrorism. U.S. policymakers
seem
> ready to grant Russia considerable influence in Central Asia, provided
U.S.
> interests are also defended.  This could become a durable basis for the
> external provision of security to the area, but there are potential
problems
> that could erode the mutual confidence needed for partnership to work.
One
> such problem is the future of Turkmenistan where the erratic and
sultanistic
> regime of Sapirmurad Niyazov is clearly in grave trouble.
>
> IS THE PROPOSED RUSSIA-CHINA-INDIA PIPELINE FEASIBLE?
> Aftab Kazi
> India has sought the construction of an energy pipeline from Russia across
> Central Asia and China. This proposal shows the Indian wish to avoid
energy
> dependence on Pakistan at any cost, despite the mounting energy needs in
> India. Although welcomed by Russia and China for further discussion, the
> feasibility of this pipeline project is highly doubtful for economic,
> technical, environmental, and security reasons. Whereas the idea could, if
> constructed, change the energy architecture of the region, it is highly
> unlikely to be endorsed by the Chinese government.
>
> KAZAKHSTAN DESIRES MILITARY BASES TOO
> Rafis Abazov
> On June 19, Kazakh TV announced that the Pentagon had requested permission
to
> use the Almaty civilian airport for US military aircraft in the
antiterrorist
> campaign in Afghanistan. This posed a dilemma to the Kazakhstani
leadership,
> which is deeply divided on the whether Kazakhstan needs US military bases.
> Kazakhstan remains strongly tied to the Russian security system through
the
> CIS Security Treaty and bilateral security agreements. Opponents of the
base
> argue that US presence in Kazakhstan may jeopardize relations with Russia.
> Proponents argue that increasing US military assistance to Tashkent has
> disturbed the strategic balance in Central Asia and given additional
> advantages to Kazakhstan's long-time rival, Uzbekistan, and that only
American
> help can restore that equilibrium.
>
> THE FIELD REPORTS INCLUDE:
>
> CHARKILIK-FROM VILLAGE TO MINING METROPOLIS
> Charkilik is an example of provincial Uyghur settlements that are being
> completely revamped by Chinese infrastructure. But Uyghurs are skeptical
of
> the apparent improvements, because with infrastructure comes Chinese
> immigration into Xinjiang. Uyghurs complain of not getting the jobs that
> development brings their hometowns.
>
> AZERBAIJAN TO HOLD REFERENDUM OVER CONSTITUTIONAL CHANGES
> On June 21, the Constitutional Court of Azerbaijan approved the draft bill
on
> a referendum on the introduction of changes to the Constitution of
Azerbaijan,
> submitted by President Aliyev. According to the draft bill, President
Aliyev
> proposed several changes to the Constitution which are expected to be
adopted
> by referendum on August 24.
>
> LAND PRIVATIZATION SCHEME IN KAZAKHSTAN REVEALS A LONG CHAIN OF CHEATING
> The long-awaited privatization of farmland in Kazakhstan  tends to become
he
> most controversial issue. The scheme, originally generated by a handful of
> agricultural officials and designed to rectify the mistakes of the past
tends
> to acquire political coloring, the only looser in all this scuffle being
small
> farmers.
>
> ANOTHER COUNTRY: EMIGRATION PICKS UP IN UZBEKISTAN
> As millions of dollars of aid pour into Uzbekistan, millions of ordinary
> Uzbeks are pouring out because very few benefits are filtering down to
them.
> Europe, Australia, and the Gulf are favorite destinations. But going
abroad is
> a risky business, and those that leave meet with mixed fortunes.
>
> The Analyst provides a rigorous, concise and nonpartisan forum where
> specialists can assess issues and events in the Central Asia-Caucasus
region
> for a broad audience of business people, journalists, policy makers,
> government officials, diplomats and academics.  The Analyst seeks regional
> specialists, journalists, economists, and political scientists to join its
> pool of authors who are then asked to contribute short, timely, analytical
> articles, ca. 900-1000 words in length. The institute pays a honorarium to
the
> authors. The Analyst also seeks local experts, corporate representatives
and
> NGO representatives from the region to write Field Reports for a modest
> honorarium.
>
> The Analyst provides factual, objective and analytical articles valuing
fresh
> insights rather than the conventional wisdom.  We welcome readers and
writers
> from various perspectives and viewpoints.  We value your comments and
> suggestions.
>
> Those interested in joining The Analyst's pool of authors to contribute
> articles, field reports or contacts of potential writers, please send your
CV
> to: [email protected] and suggest some topics on which you would
like
> to write. Please remember that The Analyst does not accept double
submissions.
>
>
> Svante E. Cornell, Acting Editor
> Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst
> Central Asia-Caucasus Institute
> The Johns Hopkins University
> Nitze School of Advanced International Studies
> 1619 Massachusetts Avenue, NW
> Washington, DC 20036
> Tel. 1-202-663-7712
> Fax. 1-202-663-7785
> [email protected]
>
>