Fw: PUBL.- Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 17 July 2002 Issue on Web

----- Original Message -----
From: "Svante Cornell" <[email protected]>
To: <[email protected]>
Sent: Wednesday, July 24, 2002 4:23 AM
Subject: PUBL.- Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 17 July 2002 Issue on Web


> A distribution of: CentralAsia-L - Announcement List for Central Asian
Studies
>
>
> PUBL.- Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 17 July 2002 Issue on Web
>
> The 17 July 2002 Issue of the Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, a
subscription
> free Web journal with over 117,000 visitors to the site since January 2000
is
> now on-line at http://www.cacianalyst.org/
>
> The Central Asia-Caucasus Institute of The Johns Hopkins University-The
Nitze
> School of Advanced International Studies is proud to announce the
publication
> of the 17 July 2002 issue of its biweekly Web-Journal, The Central Asia-
> Caucasus Analyst.
>
> The Institute also offers its readers the option of downloading The
Analyst in
> PDF format, enabling readers to view and print out the entire issue of The
> Analyst. The html version will, of course, remain available.
>
> THE ANALYTICAL ARTICLES INCLUDE:
>
> TURKEY'S POLITICAL CRISIS AND ITS POSSIBLE IMPLICATIONS
> Kemal Kaya
> The political uncertainty in Turkey that began with Prime Minister Bülent
> Ecevit's illness in May has now turned into a full political chaos, with
the
> decision on early elections in November and the government's loss of its
> majority. Following deputy prime minister Hüsamettin Özkan's resignation,
6
> ministers and over 50 members of parliament from Ecevit's Party have
followed,
> and more are expected. Turkey's crisis has far-reaching consequences for
its
> ties to the EU, coming just months before a crucial EU summit, as well as
for
> U.S. interests in the region including a possible military action against
Iraq.
>
> FIVE YEARS OF "PEACE" IN TAJIKISTAN: THE  STRANGE LOGIC OF FRAGMENTED
AUTHORITY
> Michael Denison
> This month saw the passing of the fifth anniversary of the peace agreement

> that formally ended the civil war in Tajikistan. The conflict, which began
a
> decade ago, claimed up to 60,000 lives and displaced ten times that
number.
> Although a partial attempt has been made to re-integrate warring factions
into
> state structures, thereby developing at least the trappings of a
functioning
> national polity, Tajik society remains stubbornly fissiparous. Could
> Tajikistan be acquiring a fragile stability and internal logic common to
> other "failed states", in which authority is wielded by, and contingent
upon,
> non-state actors who are preoccupied primarily with the pursuit of private
> gain?
>
> ISLAMIC EXTREMISM IN AZERBAIJAN: REALITY AND MYTH
> Anar Valiyev and Yusif Valiyev
> The recent violence in the village of Nardaran outside Baku exemplifies
how
> Islamic rhetoric is meddled into socio-economic problems in Azerbaijan.
Many
> factors have added to the salience of Islamic sentiment in the country:
the
> ideological vacuum in Azerbaijani society; the Armenian-Azerbaijani
conflict;
> the deteriorating social-economic situation, one million refugees; the
> destructive activity of foreign states, mainly Iran, in exporting radical
> Islamic ideas; and the Chechen war and refugees from the North Caucasus.
All
> these factors contributed to the establishment of dozens mostly illegal
> Islamic organizations. The absence of a thoughtful state policy on
religion
> has led to a growing number of people wishing to change the current
secular
> statehood of Azerbaijan.
>
> PUTIN'S PRAGMATIC APPROACH TO CIS COUNTRIES IS PAYING OFF
> James Purcell Smith
> Since the beginning of 2001, Russian foreign policy changed its tone in
> relations with almost all CIS countries from a big brother attitude to a
> pragmatic approach. This approach has been immensely more fruitful for
Russia
> in its relations with CIS countries than the former foreign policy under
> president Boris Yeltsin. Russia's influence over countries like Ukraine,
> Azerbaijan, and Central Asia has expanded with the new strategy, even
> considering the U.S. military presence in Central Asia. Putin's mobility
and
> ability to sign deals with the CIS states is strengthening Russia's
influence
> in the entire CIS.
>
>
> THE FIELD REPORTS INCLUDE:
>
> A NEW LAW MAY LIMIT POLITICAL FREEDOM IN KAZAKHSTAN
> On June 20, just before its summer recess, Kazakhstan's parliament passed
the
> draft law on political parties which, according to experts, greatly
restricts
> the political rights of citizens. The controversial law, which may
> dramatically change the course of political developments in Kazakhstan,
was
> signed into law by the president of the country amid strong protests from
> opposition.
>
> CLIMATIC CHANGES INFLICTED SERIOUS CASUALTIES TO AZERBAIJAN'S AGRICULTURE
> According to the data of the Ministry of Agriculture, the global climatic
> changes have affected Azerbaijan too. Torrential rains have done a
significant
> damage to the economy of Azerbaijan of about 100 billions manat. (ca.
US$20
> million). Emergency measures are being taken, while tropical heat is
spreading
> over the country, potentially creating more problems.
>
> ANOTHER OUTBREAK OF TYPHOID IN TAJIKISTAN
> A special Emergency Commission mobilized by the Tajik Government reports
that
> 246 people have been hospitalized with suspected typhoid in the Bokhtar
> district of Khatlon province in southern Tajikistan. 53 cases have been
> confirmed. The tests of water in this area proved that these patients,
> residents of six villages, were contaminated from the local water supply
> system.
>
> EBRD SUPPORTS MICRO AND SMALL ENTERPRISES IN KYRGYZSTAN
> In early July, the EBRD launched a new program to support the growth of
Micro-
> and Small enterprises in Kyrgyzstan. Small businesses account for over 60%
of
> Kyrgyzstan's workforce, yet financing by local banks is very limited.
> Moreover, earlier programs have largely failed due to high interest rates,
> government interference, and confusing standards.
>
> The Analyst provides a rigorous, concise and nonpartisan forum where
> specialists can assess issues and events in the Central Asia-Caucasus
region
> for a broad audience of business people, journalists, policy makers,
> government officials, diplomats and academics.  The Analyst seeks regional
> specialists, journalists, economists, and political scientists to join its
> pool of authors who are then asked to contribute short, timely, analytical
> articles, ca. 900-1000 words in length. The institute pays a honorarium to
the
> authors. The Analyst also seeks local experts, corporate representatives
and
> NGO representatives from the region to write Field Reports for a modest
> honorarium.
>
> The Analyst provides factual, objective and analytical articles valuing
fresh
> insights rather than the conventional wisdom.  We welcome readers and
writers
> from various perspectives and viewpoints.  We value your comments and
> suggestions.
>
> Those interested in joining The Analyst's pool of authors to contribute
> articles, field reports or contacts of potential writers, please send your
CV
> to: [email protected] and suggest some topics on which you would
like
> to write. Please remember that The Analyst does not accept double
submissions.
>
>
> Svante E. Cornell, Acting Editor
> Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst
> Central Asia-Caucasus Institute
> The Johns Hopkins University
> Nitze School of Advanced International Studies
> 1619 Massachusetts Avenue, NW
> Washington, DC 20036
> Tel. 1-202-663-7712
> Fax. 1-202-663-7785
> [email protected]
>
>
>
>