Fw: PUBL.- Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 31 July 2002 Issue on Web

----- Original Message -----
From: "Svante Cornell" <[email protected]>
To: <[email protected]>
Sent: Thursday, August 08, 2002 3:41 AM
Subject: PUBL.- Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 31 July 2002 Issue on Web


> A distribution of: CentralAsia-L - Announcement List for Central Asian
Studies
>
>
> PUBL.- Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, 31 July 2002 Issue on Web
>
> The 31 July 2002 Issue of the Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst, a
subscription
> free Web journal with over 119,000 visitors to the site since January 2000
is
> now on-line at http://www.cacianalyst.org/
>
> The Central Asia-Caucasus Institute of The Johns Hopkins University-The
Nitze
> School of Advanced International Studies is proud to announce the
publication
> of the 31 July 2002 issue of its biweekly Web-Journal, The Central
> Asia-Caucasus Analyst.
>
> The Institute also offers its readers the option of downloading The
Analyst in
> PDF format, enabling readers to view and print out the entire issue of The
> Analyst. The html version will, of course, remain available.
>
> THE ANALYTICAL ARTICLES INCLUDE:
>
> COMPROMISED FROM THE START: THE AFGHAN INTERIM ADMINISTRATION AND THE
DRUGS
> TRADE
> Tamara Makarenko
> The seizure of 215kg of heroin on the Afghan-Tajik border in early July
may be
> heralded as a triumph of authorities, but does little to suggest that the
> Afghan drugs trade is under threat. This record seizure highlights that
the
> trade has successfully recovered from the 2000 opium ban announced and
> enforced by the Taliban. The Afghan drug trade has not been deterred by
the
> war on terrorism or American military presence.  Obsessions with the role
of
> the Taliban and Al Qaeda in the drugs trade have contributed to the
resurgence
> of the drugs trade, as this failure to understand the dynamics of the
trade
> allows the major players responsible for producing and trafficking opiates
to
> operate with few obstacles.
>
> QUARRELING BROTHERS: AZERBAIJANI-TURKMEN RELATIONS
> Anar Valiyev
> On July 8, the Azerbaijani tanker General Shikhlinskiy exploded in the
Turkmen
> port of Turkmenbashi, killing six Azeri sailors. An investigation is going
on,
> but the Turkmen opposition and several Azerbaijani newspapers have blamed
the
> Turkmen government for the incident, showing the unwillingness of the
Turkmen
> authorities to investigate the case. The tragedy showed how deep
suspicions
> between the two government are running. Years of disputes over the Caspian
sea
> and the mutual enmity of Presidents Aliyev and Niyazov have made the gap
> between these ethnically closest nations ever wider. Meanwhile, the active
> militarization of the Caspian states, including Turkmenistan and
Azerbaijan,
> could lead to confrontation.
>
> CLOUDS GATHERING OVER POST-TALIBAN AFGHANISTAN
> Rahimullah Yusufzai
> Insecurity, warlordism, slow reconstruction and botched US military
operations
> are some of the challenges confronting post-Taliban Afghanistan. The
> expectations that the collapse of the Taliban regime would make the
isolated,
> war-ravaged country secure and peaceful haven't materialized. The
destruction
> of al-Qaeda and killing or capture of Osama bin Laden, two of the major
> objectives of the US war on terrorism, remain largely unaccomplished.
Moves by
> transitional President Hamid Karzai's fractious coalition government to
> consolidate its writ beyond Kabul have met fierce resistance. There have
been
> some achievements, but a lot more needs to be done to revive faith in
> Afghanistan's ability to surmount its endless problems.
>
> WARNINGS OF ISLAMIC MILITANT INCURSION PROMPT ANXIETY IN KYRGYZSTAN
> Alisher Khamidov
> Kyrgyz Security Officials are issuing alarming reports of fresh incursions
by
> the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan amidst growing domestic instability.
> Quoting the head of the Kyrgyz Security Council Mishir Ashirkulov, several
> mainstream Russian news services reported last week that Juma Namangoni,
the
> notorious leader of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan who was reportedly
> killed several months ago in clashes between U.S.-led alliance and the
> Taliban, is still alive. According to these reports, under his leadership,
> members of the IMU are trying to cross the Afghan-Tajik border to regroup
in
> their former stronghold located in mountainous villages in eastern
Tajikistan.
>
> THE FIELD REPORTS INCLUDE:
>
> KAZAKH-UZBEK BORDER DISPUTE  TRIGGERS  OFF NATIONALISTIC EMOTIONS
> Officials in Kazakhstan usually try to underplay the minor skirmishes
which
> sporadically flare up along the contested sections of the Kazakh-Uzbek
border.
> Meanwhile, the heightening tensions over the disputed border areas of
Bagys
> and Turkestan are aptly used by various nationalistic forces in Kazakhstan
who
> wish to make a political windfall out of the worsening relations between
the
> two countries.
>
> IS PAN-TURKISM STILL ALIVE?
> Turkey's successes in the world cup led to the outpouring of joy
throughout
> the Turkic world. Especially in Azerbaijan and Turkmenistan, thousands of
> people poured out on the streets in Euphoria in numbers that no political
> figure can muster. In Turkmenistan, the President got so worried that he
> prohibited the celebrations.
>
> AZERBAIJAN AND IRAN: DRAWING CLOSER OF POSITIONS OR ESTRANGEMENT
> Lately some activity has been observed in Iranian-Azerbaijani relations.
While
> last years' naval incident almost brought all attempts of the two sides to
> establish good-neighborly relations to naught, a dangerous military
standoff
> in the region has been avoided. The recent visit of President Aliyev to
Iran
> and a subsequent increase in relations has spurred hope for a solution to
> outstanding bilateral problems.
>
> PRESIDENT AKAYEV HOLDS A ROUNDTABLE FOR UNITY
> At a roundtable held on July 26th, President Askar Akaev called all the
> political forces of Kyrgyzstan to preserve peace and consensus in the
> country.  The roundtable took place in the state residence "Ala-Archa"
under
> the motto "Interaction and cooperation in the name of Kyrgyzstan."  As in
two
> other such meetings held previously, the main purpose of the roundtable
was
> not to make decisions but to have a dialogue between representatives of
the
> Kyrgyz government, opposition, NGOs, and mass media.
>
> The Analyst provides a rigorous, concise and nonpartisan forum where
> specialists can assess issues and events in the Central Asia-Caucasus
region
> for a broad audience of business people, journalists, policy makers,
> government officials, diplomats and academics.  The Analyst seeks regional
> specialists, journalists, economists, and political scientists to join its
> pool of authors who are then asked to contribute short, timely, analytical
> articles, ca. 900-1000 words in length. The institute pays a honorarium to
the
> authors. The Analyst also seeks local experts, corporate representatives
and
> NGO representatives from the region to write Field Reports for a modest
> honorarium.
>
> The Analyst provides factual, objective and analytical articles valuing
fresh
> insights rather than the conventional wisdom.  We welcome readers and
writers
> from various perspectives and viewpoints.  We value your comments and
> suggestions.
>
> Those interested in joining The Analyst's pool of authors to contribute
> articles, field reports or contacts of potential writers, please send your
CV
> to: [email protected] and suggest some topics on which you would
like
> to write. Please remember that The Analyst does not accept double
submissions.
>
> Svante E. Cornell, Acting Editor
> Central Asia-Caucasus Analyst
> Central Asia-Caucasus Institute
> The Johns Hopkins University
> Nitze School of Advanced International Studies
> 1619 Massachusetts Avenue, NW
> Washington, DC 20036
> Tel. 1-202-663-7712
> Fax. 1-202-663-7785
> [email protected]
>
>
>
>
>