Re: equity

On 1/31/19 11:53 AM, Jean-Pierre Rocafort wrote:
> some time later (too late for L64A1) the revoke is discovered so un
> adjusted score is needed.

The formatting was hard to read.  Please send in plain text with no 
tabs.  I don't think details matter for my reply, though.

> declarer calls for 9 tricks, arguing he should not lose H10.
(revoke card)

He certainly should not lose it on that trick but might lose it later.

> defenser argues declarer misplayed the hand,

This is irrelevant, of course.  Play prior to the revoke stands, and an 
adjusted score is based on what would have happened absent the revoke. 
As far as I can tell, that may be a weighted score.

> as he played, D ruffed then low H, east
> should take HA then force dummy with a club preventing him from removing
> trumps.

This is a possible line of play that needs to be considered.

> declarer argues back, first that somebody who is not able to follow suit
> should not be deemed able to find a complex defense,

Indeed I'd be inclined not to give much weight to a defense that is 
complex, but that doesn't necessarily mean zero.

> 2nd that had the
> revoke been corrected, H10 would have been a penalized card and east
> could not have played HA on the next trick.

This is an interesting legal question that I haven't seen before.  In 
the past, I've always seen L64C equity defined as "without the revoke," 
not "after the revoke and a correction, leaving a penalty card." 
However, one could argue that L72C applies, and the offenders should get 
the worse of these two results.  Is there anything that says which is 
proper?

In the actual case, I'm not a good enough analyst to work out what would 
have happened after the revoke.  Doesn't declarer have to guess who is 
void?  Depending on East's skill, I'd tend to give East's suggested 
defense small weight but not zero. I could easily be persuaded otherwise 
be a better analysis.
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