CGOS 9x9 draw rate

Hi,

I have checked CGOS 9x9 black winrate and draw rate.

CGOS 9x9 black winrate
http://www.yss-aya.com/cgos2018_03_07_black_winrate.png
CGOS 9x9 draw rate
http://www.yss-aya.com/cgos2018_03_07_draw_rate.png

Following table means 1800 range(both player are (1800 <= rate < 1900))
 games are 397, and black winrate is 0.460.
I did not plot 1900 - 2100 because few games.

It seems black winrate tends to down for strong players.
Draw rate clearly tends to up.
Maybe over 4300, all games become draw?


CGOS from 2018/03/01 to 2018/07/31, total 130922 games

rate  games   B wins Draw W wins  Black winrate(draw is 0.5)  Draw rate
1800:   397 =(  153/   59/  185)         0.460                0.149
1900:     3 =(    2/    1/    0)         0.833                0.333
2000:     1 =(    0/    0/    1)         0.000                0.000
2100:     6 =(    5/    0/    1)         0.833                0.000
2200:    81 =(   34/    3/   44)         0.438                0.037
2300:  1259 =(  587/   77/  595)         0.497                0.061
2400:  4923 =( 2346/  409/ 2168)         0.518                0.083
2500:   945 =(  391/  128/  426)         0.481                0.135
2600:   107 =(   43/   24/   40)         0.514                0.224
2700:  1490 =(  518/  253/  719)         0.433                0.170
2800:  3354 =(  970/ 1135/ 1249)         0.458                0.338
2900:  1375 =(  416/  390/  569)         0.444                0.284
3000:   181 =(   60/   31/   90)         0.417                0.171
3100:    41 =(   11/   16/   14)         0.463                0.390


Following are Black first move winrate.
It seems Black tengen (5,5) is not best move anymore for players >= 2800.
Maybe one reason is Leela Zero 9x9(LZ20_128_65_p3000) only plays (4,5)
 and never play (5,5).


Black first move winrate

      both player < 2800          both player >= 2800

      games       black winrate   games      black winrate
(5,5) 41929(59.2) 0.554           5072(36.7) 0.398
(4,4) 11349(16.0) 0.548           2510(18.2) 0.388
(4,5)  7676(10.8) 0.538           5407(39.1) 0.519
(3,4)  2777( 3.9) 0.239            604( 4.4) 0.424
(3,3)  1402( 2.0) 0.212             87( 0.6) 0.282
(3,5)  1353( 1.9) 0.180            111( 0.8) 0.500
----------------------------------------------
total 70769                      13815

http://www.yss-aya.com/cgos/9x9/standings.html

Thanks,
Hiroshi Yamashita

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