Re: Odds - Game 3

Russia's fortunes have certainly fallen! 

You misrepresent the position somewhat.  My position (and one I 
don't think that is all that unusual in a winner-takes-all game such 
as these semi finals) is that if I am put into a position where I 
have no realistic chance to win, I will work towards a win by my 
best ally.

Generally, this encourages allies to stick for the long term and to 
discourage minor annoying stabs.  It didn't this game, but no 
strategy works well without good execution and my execution hasn't 
worked out well.

It's probably much too late to put Russia back in a meaningful 
position this game, but that was what I was trying to accomplish 
anyway.  I'll show you next year ;)

NB





--- In [email protected], "mczet" <mczet-kYwkPH9/[email protected]> wrote:
> It gets even weirder when you factor in the alliance dynamics.
> Russia-Austria vs England-Germany has been the split pretty much 
since day
> one. At one point where was French,Italian,Austrian and Russian 
units all on
> various Germany borders. Talk about the center of the storm!
> 
> About a year ago, Russia, seeing is fortunes fall, declared intent 
to work
> 100% towards an Austrian win. This sent the German units into 
Rotweiller
> mode as they charged into the middle of the Austrian/Russian 
lines. The last
> years situation has been, to say the least, confusing, but quite 
exciting as
> well.
> 
> Could England stab Germany for an end game win? He most certainly 
could, and
> he probably will. The German gambit is such - That it will play 
attack dog
> seeking to reach a point where Austria decides a win is out of 
reach and
> then must decide whether it will be England or Germany that tops. 
Julio will
> still probably stab me for the win, but hey, he's a friend of Egg, 
and we
> all know that Egg would never ever stab a neighbor! So perhaps I'm 
safe
> after all!
> 
> 
> 
> 
> ----- Original Message ----- 
> From: "naboimp" <[email protected]>
> To: <[email protected]>
> Sent: Wednesday, July 14, 2004 10:24 AM
> Subject: [wm02-chat] Odds - Game 3
> 
> 
> > Time for another analysis - I did one on Game 2 as well that
> > apparently has not shown up yet interestingly enough.  But for 
now,
> > I'll go on to Game 3.
> >
> > The favorite:
> >
> > England (Julio Pereira) 35% - This board is much more balanced 
than
> > the prior two, but he has the best position here.  He's got a 
strong
> > corner with France and Russia dissolving and Germany as an ally 
who
> > can't really hurt him.  All he needs is to stay ahead of his two
> > main rivals, and the game is won.
> >
> > Austria (Kester Bearne) 30% - Tied for the current lead at 9 
SC's,
> > he's in good position also, but unlike England, it isn't 
immediately
> > obvious that he has any allies remaining.  On the plus side, he's
> > surrounded by the weaker powers and may be able to swallow them 
to
> > take the lead, but growing in all directions at once while also
> > limiting the chance for England (especially) to grow is still an
> > uphill battle.
> >
> > Germany (Ray Setzer) 25% - His position could be better, but it 
also
> > could be a lot worse.  His biggest problem appears to be finding 
new
> > growth without bumping into his two rivals, neither of which he 
is
> > particularly well positioned to fight.  He's definitely 
vulnerable
> > to a late game stab by England for the win, and Austria appears 
in
> > better position to grab up centers from the weaker powers.  That 
all
> > said, Germany does have builds he can use currently (unlike
> > Austria), and if he finds a way to rally the small powers against
> > Austria while beating England to other builds, his position to 
gain
> > power grows immensely.  He's still a dark horse in this race, 
but I
> > wouldn't count him out.
> >
> > Russia (Nick Benedict) 6% - He's suffered a huge blow with the 
loss
> > of two centers, one each to Austria and Germany, but he does
> > represent the balance of power between the two going forward, 
which
> > gives him some leverage.  Using that leverage to somehow forge a
> > winning position is difficult to see, but it clearly is not
> > impossible in the time remaining.
> >
> > Turkey (John O'Donnell) 2% - He's in a bad position, but at least
> > he's not in imminent danger of collapse.  Austria has a number of
> > other fronts so may not be able to make Turkey's end a priority, 
and
> > that leaves the door open for a comeback especially if Austria 
and
> > Russia falter.
> >
> > France (Eric Mead) 1% - He's in roadblock mode, but there doesn't
> > appear to be anyone coming to his rescue.  Assuming Germany and
> > England continue working together, there's little he can do.  
Still,
> > there's at least a glimmer of hope that England and Germany do 
split.
> >
> > Italy (Roger Yonkoski) 1% - Austria appears to be leaving him 
alone
> > for now so he may survive, but if his survival depends upon 
Austria,
> > he also has little in the way of growth prospects.  Turning 
against
> > Austria, even if successful, probably aids England and Germany,
> > which also means an also ran finish.  He needs a miracle.
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >
> > Yahoo! Groups Links
> >
> >
> >
> >
> >



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