Re: Odds - Game 1

I've had a request to update the odds for this game, and fortunes 
have certainly shifted.  So here goes:

France (Steve Ray) 35% - He's taken the lead and still has some 
growth prospects in the north, but realistically, he's going to have 
his work cut out for him to remain even.  So why is he the 
favorite?  Unless the other powers collectively crown a replacement, 
it'll be tough for any single one of them to surpass him.  It's 
certainly not impossible though, even without such consensus.

Austria (Adam Silverman) 31% - His odds have declined, but mostly, 
it is because of Turkish and French growth rather than his own 
setbacks.  These odds presume short term cooperation with Turkey 
rather than hostility, but cooperation with Turkey does hamper 
Austria's growth.  Germany is still an option, but that will aid 
France's growth.  Italy would have to be shared with Turkey, and 
Russia's final centers are difficult to obtain.  All this, and there 
does exist the very real possibility of a late Turkish stab.  He can 
get there, but it'll take some fine diplomacy.

Turkey (Owen Blagae) 17% - He's grown significantly since the last 
assessment, and his new build could allow greater odds of a 
successful current stab on Austria.  Such a stab could give him a 
run at the lead, but it also risks French growth and it may not be 
necessary yet.  Turkey can still get some spoils from Italy and 
potentially Tunis before turning on Austria.  It is hard though to 
see a win for Turkey without him turning on Austria at some point.

Germany (David Malloch) 13% - He's also grown significantly, at 
England's expense, and this does give him some wiggle room.  He's 
certainly not in the clear though as France could challenge him in 
the north and his back is still somewhat exposed to Austria.  Still, 
if he can keep alliances in his favor, he has a chance to spring 
forward in the end game and seize the top, perhaps taking the 
current Russian centers and challenging France for England.  He's 
still a longshot, but his odds have definitely improved.

Russia (Rick Powell) 2% - OK, I'm being generous, mostly giving this 
much to distinguish him from the other two who are in even worse 
position.  He actually can hold on with his two centers for some 
time if Germany doesn't attack him.  That said, there are no real 
options for growth, which means he can't really turn things around.  
(Perhaps an alliance with Turkey against Austria and an alliance 
with Germany against France?  Nah.)

Italy (Andrew Stupple) 1% - The retreat of France hurts him more 
than France since if the Austro-Turkish alliance holds, Italy is 
done for.  Even if Italy can pry a crack in this alliance, prospects 
for growth are non-existent.  It would take a miracle to turn things 
around.  (Perhaps France would consent to convoying Italian armies 
into France proper and donate his centers to Italy's cause?  That's 
about the only way I see Italy having a shot.)

England (Brad Smith) 1% - Well, so much for the halfway decent odds 
I gave him last time around.  The peace with France was a fraud, and 
apparently Germany was looking for the chance to stab.  Ouch!  At 
this point, survival would be an accomplishment, but he can make a 
difference in who does win I suppose.  (If he aids Germany and 
reclaims his home centers somehow, he could make a run, but the 
remaining game time limits even this possibility.)

For prior odds, see below:

> Austria (Adam Silverman) 45% - He's not only the current leader at 
8 
> SC's, but there is no significant threat currently opposing him, 
and 
> he's likely to continue to grow at Russia's expense.  There is 
still 
> time for him to be taken down, especially since he does not have a 
> corner position, but he deserves the favorite position at the 
moment.
> 
> France (Steve Ray) 20% - He's currently the second largest power 
at 
> 7 SC's, but has recently suffered a setback with the loss of 
> Holland.  The loss is hardly fatal though, and Germany will have a 
> hard time pressing an attack without leaving himself very 
vulnerable 
> to Austria, the current leader.  If Austria does falter, France is 
> in good position to take advantage, but he isn't the only one. 
> 
> England (Brad Smith) 17% - He's trailing the two leaders, but his 
> capture of Holland and seeming peace with France leaves him a 
strong 
> corner position while France and Russia turn their backs to deal 
> with Austria (and he's seemingly allied with Germany).  If the 
board 
> begins to focus against Austria, he may well be able to stage a 
late 
> rally to push himself into the lead.
> 
> Turkey (Owen Blagae) 11% - Currently tied with England at 5 SC's, 
> he's also Austria's apparent ally.  Unfortunately, this leaves him 
> with little in the way of growth opportunities, and his unit mix 
is 
> not conducive for a stab on Austria either.  Still, if Austria 
> falls, he may be able to pick up enough spoils to sneak into the 
> lead, and his strong Med presence may be sufficient to push into 
> Italian centers.  Further NMR's will certainly erode his chances.
> 
> Germany (David Malloch) 5% - He's in a dicey position, caught 
> between the players with the best chances.  Still, he's got 4 SC's 
> and an apparent alliance with England.  France appears to be 
pulling 
> back to move through the Med, and any advance against Austria 
would 
> seem to require German efforts to succeed.  There's still time to 
> make up ground, but he's still a longshot at best.
> 
> Russia (Rick Powell) 1% - He's losing ground to Austria, and 
there's 
> probably at least Moscow yet to be lost.  On the brighter side, if 
> the others are cooperating to contain and drive back Austria, 
he'll 
> be involved at least initially.  So all he needs to do is somehow 
> push Austria back from his own territory quickly enough to defend 
> himself from late surges from England and Germany while 
> simultaneously pushing deep into Austria and perhaps Turkey.  The 
> odds are certainly against him.
> 
> Italy (Andrew Stupple) 1% - His position is just as poor as 
Russia's 
> with both Austria and Turkey menacing him.  And while France's 
navy 
> may be coming to the rescue (despite taking Tunis), that doesn't 
> exactly inspire much confidence in the chances for growth even if 
> Austria is defeated.  Still, I guess it is still theoretically 
> possible for him to win.



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