Status after end of Game 224

First, I'm breathing a little easier now that my own passage into 
the semis is assured.  Phew!  As predicted, the three way tie for 
first in 224 moves the Turkish player up above the cutoff, knocking 
down 218's England out of the semis.  Given the position on that 
board, it is doubtful that he'll settle for that.  That bodes well 
for the Stepsons since each of their two rivals have players in that 
game likely to be hurt by England's assertiveness.

The battle for second in that game should eliminate one of the two 
contenders in the battle for the top.  A second placing minimizes 
the point loss, and that combined with success elsewhere could still 
lead to the team victory.

The Riders' hopes hinge on Game 210 where Turkey is poised to gain 
some points although it is not apparent how many.  

S-F is counting heavily on Game 206, but a drop into second by 2 
SC's makes a board top here a longshot.  Failing victory, S-F can at 
least work to eliminate the Stepson in that game, down to 3 SC's 
after last season.

Also relevant is Game 228, where the Stepsons hope to hold onto at 
least a couple points from their Italian player.

The other continuing games (205 and 216) don't have any direct 
effect on the team tournament.

Regarding the battle for the last few spots in the semis, here are 
the contenders (given the current cutoff at 44.55 points):

Game 205:
England needs 38.55, currently has 46.00.  Obviously, he can't 
afford to drop beyond a tie for first at 15 SC's, but then he 
probably won't.
Italy needs 20.55, currently has 27.00.  A drop to third is too 
far.  A tie at second would need to be at 11 centers and wouldn't 
leave a lot of room for error.
Austria needs 32.05, currently has 17.00.  It is basically tie for 
the top or bust here, and the odds are long.
Likely, no changes.

Game 206:
Italy needs 36.55, currently has 44.00.  Obviously, he can't afford 
to drop beyond a tie for first at 13 SC's.  Given the position, his 
best hope is just to stay in first.
France needs 27.55, currently has 26.00.  That's just a couple 
centers to reach the next round even if Italy keeps pace.  
Obviously, falling any further makes the goal impossible.
Russia needs 34.05, currently has 15.00.  Needs at least a tie for 
first at 11 SC's - it isn't going to happen.
A possible addition if France gets some pickups without knocking 
Italy down.  Otherwise, just one will advance, and no changes.

Game 210:
Italy needs 34.55, currently has 41.00.  Obviously, he can't afford 
to drop beyond a tie for first at 11 SC's.  Given the position, his 
best hope is just to stay in first.
Turkey needs 23.55, currently has 20.00.  A sole second is 
sufficient and seems likely.  Remaining in a tie for second just 
isn't feasible under the circumstances.
France needs 26.05, currently has 10.00.  He'd need at least a sole 
second with 11 SC's to advance, and that's far too much to ask.
England needs 37.55, currently has 20.00.  Only a first is even 
helpful, and given the board position, he'd be lucky to maintain his 
current standing.
A possible addition if Turkey just breaks his tie without dropping 
Italy.  Otherwise, just one will advance, and no changes.

Game 216:
Austria needs 21.05, currently has 44.00.  It would take a complete 
collapse for him not to make it.
Italy needs 22.05, currently has 25.00.  Maintaining second place 
assures the advancement.  He could drop into a tie as long as it is 
at 11 SC's, but that isn't likely.
Germany needs 20.55, currently has 8.00.  Getting to second place is 
just too far to go.
England needs 36.39, currently has 15.00.  That requires a board 
top, and it isn't happening.
A possible subtraction if England catches Italy.  Otherwise, two 
advance, and no changes.

Game 218:
Russia needs 20.55, currently has 29.67.  A second place is still 
sufficient.  A tie for second is sufficient at 9 SC's.  Both are 
possible.  Remaining in a tie for first looks unlikely.
Italy needs 22.55, currently has 29.67.  A second place is still 
sufficient.  A tie for second is sufficient at 11 SC's.  Both are 
possible, but the latter is leaving little room for error.  
Remaining in a tie for first looks unlikely.
England needs 30.55, currently has 29.67.  A second place isn't 
likely to be good enough considering the center distribution.  A tie 
for first would be enough and is a possibility.
A potential addition if there is a 12-11-11 split with England on 
top, but most likely only two advance, and no changes.

Game 228:
Germany needs 31.05, currently has 43.00.  A tie for first would be 
sufficient, but not a second place under the circumstances.
France needs 35.05, currently has 26.00.  A tie for first at 12 SC's 
would work, but he's got his work cut out for him.
Austria needs 38.55, currently has 17.00.  That requires a sole 
board top, and it isn't going to happen here.
A potential addition if the top two tie above 12 SC's apiece, but 
that's unlikely.  Most likely, only one advances, and no changes.

That's four potential additions to the field.  Of course, if all 
were to happen, the cutoff would rise to 47.50, which would rule out 
some of the additions.  Only one possible addition really looks 
possible at that high a level.  Thus, only 221's Italy and 204's 
France are at risk of dropping out among those whose games are 
already complete.

There's only one potential subtraction (especially considering the 
unlikelihood of any additional solos), and it would more likely be 
filled by one of the potential additions.  Still, I suppose there's 
still a shot for 213's Germany if everything falls just right.  No 
other player in a completed game below the cutoff has any chance.