Re: wm02sf02: Austria EGS

Eelco and all,

I just wanted to respond to some of this.  Of course, this kind of=20
discussion is precisely why I enjoy reading EOG's.

> GERMANY
> Right from the start Stephen was in trouble when Italy occupied=20
Tyr and=20
> France moving to Bur. There was no way Germany could keep Mun and=20
France=20
> duly supported Italy in in A01. I'm still a bit puzzled about what=20
happened=20
> next as it was clear Germany needed help from England and Russia=20
but he=20
> somehow upset Russia by helping England against Russia! Italy then=20
got=20
> kicked out of Mun next turn because France didn't support him=20
anymore and it=20
> appeared there was an E/F in the making. I believe I've shown=20
interest in=20
> France moving against Italy then, but am not really sure. In the=20
meanwhile I=20
> think maybe Germany was led to believe he was part of an E/F/G,=20
but that was=20
> soon over as England and Russia took care of him. I don't think=20
Russia=20
> needed convincing to attack Germany. Luckily I was in the=20
neighbourhood=20
> around 1904 to pick up a vital share (Mun) myself and thus staying=20
more=20
> healthy than Italy had hoped for when he planted his first stab in=20
A1904,=20
> again, more on that later.
>=20

Yeah, I'm not really sure what Steve was thinking either other than=20
he may have been worried about an FR.  Perhaps he thought an EG=20
could propel him back to prominence, but I think he overestimated=20
his usefulness to Justin.  You're right that I didn't need=20
convincing to attack Germany after he betrayed me for no apparent=20
gain for himself.  In fact, I felt like I was the one doing the=20
convincing as many others worried about England growing too large as=20
Germany fell.  I calculated that as long as France held out, there=20
was plenty of time for someone to catch and pass England.


> TURKEY
> In the meanwhile, Len (Turkey) was making all the right noises for=20
him and=20
> me to turn on Russia in 1902 and as Italy was about to move west=20
(to oppose=20
> France) I agreed to his idea. Especially as Russia was starting to=20
become a=20
> major power by being in Nwy and Swe. Unfortunately that was when=20
my hotmail=20
> account started to play up for the first time and my agreement to=20
go with=20
> the orders as discussed only arrived at Len's inbox several=20
hours 'after'=20
> the adjudication. The same was happening with Paul's (Russia)=20
message to me=20
> about a bounce in Gal. Apparently he didn't want that one anymore,=20
but as I=20
> didn't hear from Len I went ahead with that bounce=85. and there I=20
was, in=20
> Gal. Clearly, this was a mess. Off course as both messages never=20
arrived in=20
> time, and I could prove it, it was not hard for Paul to believe I=20
would move=20
> out of Gal next turn as nothing happened that wasn't agreed with=20
him. For=20
> Len it was a different matter, as a good plan fell down the drain=20
and even=20
> if I could prove about hotmail to him as well, and still be=20
credible enough,=20
> the situation was different. In the meanwhile Italy was with a=20
fleet in the=20
> AEG (as well as sailing west) and things were looking grim for=20
Turkey.
>=20

I guess I didn't know about all this (other than the bounce that=20
wasn't in Galicia).   All I can say is that I'm glad this plot fell=20
apart as quickly as it did.  With Germany's betrayal at the same=20
time, I might have been in serious trouble (though perhaps not as=20
much as might be seen).  Certainly, such an attack would have forced=20
me into closer negotiation with Italy, and I still would have made=20
peace with England.  In the end, we probably both lucked out that=20
your alliance with Turkey went nowhere.  With Jake needing Stan to=20
hold back Justin, he would still likely have turned on you, and with=20
you trying to move on me, you would have had the real two front war=20
that you always avoided this game.  (Not to mention that letting Len=20
get any traction in this game may have hurt you in the end.)

=20
> STAB 1
> And here comes A1904, Italy immediately grabbed the opportunity (I=20
admit I=20
> was a bit stretched) and stabbed me for the first time. Luckily,=20
coinciding=20
> with Jake's stab I knew France was going to claim Bel and (I=20
believe we=20
> agreed) I took Mun off of France in exchange (as he didn't really=20
need a=20
> build to thwart England, and also to keep the game more balanced,=20
especially=20
> in my area as I was suspecting something to happen in the east. .=20
but I have=20
> to admit I didn't suspect the Italian stab already this turn, good=20
one=20
> Jake!). Anyway, me taking Mun proved to be a life saver! Right=20
there and=20
> then I immediately vowed to all that I would never allow an=20
Italian board=20
> top! Off course Len spotted this as his lifeline and offered his=20
undying=20
> help to me to push Italy back, which off course I accepted (with=20
in the back=20
> of my mind that mishap in 1902). In 1905 I tried to hijack the=20
Italian=20
> ION-fleet by supporting it to Gre and slide into ION myself as I=20
was=20
> thinking Jake would self bounce in Gre. It failed, and Jake told=20
me it was=20
> in the dying seconds he changed the bounce order... Italy then=20
kicked me out=20
> of Ser and I retreated (with Russian agreement) to Russian held=20
Rum. Russia=20
> was about to pick up Ank and he also knew he needed a healthy=20
Austria to=20
> stop Italy. And I promised to hand Rum back to him asap. However,=20
as Turkey=20
> was now becoming very important for 'my' well being I had to try=20
to make=20
> sure he stayed as healthy as possible as well. Unfortunately in=20
the spring=20
> Russia was already in Ank and as Turkey was about to go down from=20
3 to 2 (or=20
> 1 as I wanted Smy for compensation against Italy) Len and I=20
arranged it so=20
> that Russia was kicked out of Ank and that I would land in Smy.=20
Paul asked=20
> for help, but I chose to ignore it and focus on my main worry=20
first, Italy.=20
> Russia would not be jeopardized as he was not in danger, he just=20
didn't get=20
> that build, and secondly, it was also more in the interest of=20
keeping the=20
> game balanced. A build for Russia would be in Stp or War and both=20
were not=20
> in my interest (when looking at the balance side of things.=20
Remember I was=20
> Austria between Italy who was not allowed to attack France and=20
Russia who=20
> could not allow England to grow, but at the same time I didn't=20
want him to=20
> grow either). In 1905 I kept Mun and Rum (still by agreement),=20
took Smy and=20
> gambled on keeping Bud empty for the all important build, and I=20
got it!=20
> Italy was on 7, I was on 6, Turkey was helping me and Russia=20
retreated. Not=20
> bad at all...
>=20

Ah, my short-lived stay in Turkey!  Of course, I wasn't too happy=20
with either of my so-called allies after that year since neither of=20
you gave me the support I needed when I needed it.  For Jake, this=20
was probably a huge error in retrospect.  Why?  Because I blamed him=20
more for my failures in Turkey.  Eelco did have to defend himself=20
from Jake, and I found this a more palatable excuse than Jake's=20
desire to grab centers from Eelco as fast as he could.  I think a=20
healthy Russia grateful to Italy, especially at Turkey's expense=20
would have been a very good thing for Italy at this juncture.=20=20
Instead, I was forced to sue for peace with Turkey, and my heart was=20
just not into dismantling Austria when I would get few of the gains=20
compared with Jake.  By getting "greedy", Italy cost himself aid=20
that may well have helped him later.

> STATUS QUO
> In the years 1906 and 1907 things started to consolidate. I handed=20
Rum back=20
> to Russia, Italy never got anywhere anymore against me thanks to=20
an NMR,=20
> coordination between Len and me, but also very importantly, thanks=20
to a=20
> friendly Russia (and off course England threatening to run away=20
with the=20
> game). Other matters of importance, Italy sends a fleet west to=20
help France=20
> against England, England accidentally takes Mun off of me, and=20
although I=20
> went down to 5 because of it, it did more harm to England as this=20
was=20
> positionally definitely NOT the place to be at this stage. A stage=20
where=20
> everyone started to combine against him as he was about to run=20
away with the=20
> game. And surely by A1907 Italy was in Mun, Russia threatened Kie=20
and France=20
> was about to take Bel. So, England was kicked out of Mun. . . . I=20
then saw=20
> the danger of 1904 loom again, with Turkey on the verge of=20
elimination (and=20
> not being able to help me anymore) and being in the middle of I/R.=20
And so I=20
> asked Justin to retreat Mun to Boh to keep I/R at bay, or maybe=20
even having=20
> this unit to help me against I/R. And not surprisingly, both I/R=20
wanted that=20
> army out of the way asap and made suggestions that would finish it=20
off=20
> immediately. But I did not help out (told them so) and 'defended'=20
against a=20
> possible stab. But to keep them happy I kept helping pushing=20
Turkey back in=20
> his corner, again by supporting Italy and in return I again got=20
support to=20
> Bul.
>=20

Yes, Justin's "good fortune" changed things around again as I felt=20
compelled to stab him even though by this time, I felt more=20
comfortable trusting him than I did either Eelco or Jake.  That=20
Bohemia army was a major irritant, and I was exasperated that=20
Austria wasn't helping destroy it.  I think I arranged with Jake=20
that next season to leave Vienna as the only possible retreat so=20
that Austria was forced to aid in the English army's destruction.

On the contrary, I wasn't happy at all about Austrian cooperation=20
with Italy to take out Turkey.  After I sued for peace and Len was=20
willing to concentrate westwards, I would have preferred Turkey=20
remain viable.  Unfortunately, the tactical situation left me=20
extremely thin, particularly in the south, and the diplomatic=20
situation meant I couldn't turn on Eelco without excess advantages=20
to Jake.  As a result, my sympathies for Len's situation produced no=20
fruit.

> JW
> Then after S9108 I was about to embark on an unexpected vacation=20
and I had=20
> to look for a replacement for 2 turns. A08 and S09. I already used=20
up my=20
> extension time somewhere in march/april because of important=20
private=20
> matters. And as I met JW (Jan Willem Omlo) for the first time=20
shortly=20
> before, when I invited him on a BBQ, and as he was our team=20
captain, I asked=20
> him. Off course he felt he couldn't say no after the BBQ-fiesta! I=20
told him=20
> what was up, that he should keep wary of Jake, that I intended to=20
> disentangle with Italy more (after 1904 we were still entangled!)=20
by=20
> supporting all of Italy to Turkey and let me have the rest of the=20
Balkans. I=20
> told him about the strategic importance of the English army in Boh=20
and when=20
> I came back JW secured my build, but the english army in Boh was=20
gone (not=20
> so bad), but unfortunately Italy had stabbed me again (S1909)!=20
Still, JW got=20
> me back up to 7 again and the situation was salvageable I thought.=20
Great Job=20
> JW!
>=20
> STAB 2
> But anyway, big *sigh*. So there I was AGAIN, the english army in=20
Boh was=20
> gone and what I had feared happened immediately. Italy pays=20
another visit!=20
> BUT, as I thought that Russia would then join in, he didn't??? He=20
left Jake=20
> hanging (Paul being the alliance player he is, or out of self=20
interest?),=20
> which I'm sure was not very much appreciated by Jake. Okay, Russia=20
had other=20
> worries in the north as his campaign in Scandinavia was not=20
getting anywhere=20
> (wrong gamble) but he did land Mun. Although I knew I could not=20
trust Jake,=20
> he was then willing to talk about disentangling again.... still I=20
had to=20
> retreat Ser, and again Rum was the option. I received a lot of=20
pushing to do=20
> so by everyone, except by Russia off course. I did anyway as I=20
needed that=20
> build once more as compensation so Italy would not get it into his=20
head to=20
> stab me for the 3rd time. And I mentioned to Russia that I would=20
hand it=20
> back again like I did after the first stab. I subsequently managed=20
to free=20
> Tri and I build a fleet (much to annoyance to Italy, but hey...=20
with two=20
> knives in my back who can blame me! And I thought that would keep=20
him in=20
> line). This was A1909 and that same turn coincided with maybe the=20
most=20
> important move in the game (as sort of part of a deal with me=20
retreating to=20
> Rum), Italian F(WMS) - Spa sc, effectively stabbing France! Jake=20
told me=20
> Stan would not mind as he had offered Spa a few turns earlier, but=20
> apparently Stan took it VERY badly and moved away from England to=20
fight=20
> Italy.
>=20

I had all kinds of options available to me that season when Jake=20
stabbed Austria the second time, and I seriously considered all of=20
them.  I had little faith in Austria by this point and very little=20
contact with JW as the Austrian replacement.  In fact, Austrian=20
cooperation with Italy against Turkey was extremely displeasing, and=20
I really wanted the two of them fighting again.  I did consider=20
joining in with Jake against Austria, but there was no way that I=20
could fight both Austria and England at the same time.

Thus, at the same time that I was discussing the stab opportunity=20
with Jake, I was also discussing peace with Justin.  Justin's=20
defense choice was to block me so I didn't anticipate getting many=20
gains if any in the north from that point on (although I did have a=20
50/50 chance against Sweden that I subsequently misguessed on).=20=20
Justin was being pushed back by France and Italy in Germany so I=20
thought he might go for it, and since I had a much better=20
relationship with Justin at that point than anyone else (despite our=20
war), I definitely leaned toward peace.

On my own, I considered a stab of Italy for Munich, and in fact this=20
was part of my discussions with Justin.  I realized that if I set=20
Jake up to stab Austria and then didn't help, I might get the war=20
between the two that I desired while limiting the success of Jake's=20
stab so that stalemate would prevail.  Meanwhile, I could nab Munich=20
for myself and be in much better position to move onward.

In the end, I decided to stab Jake while forgoing peace with=20
Justin.  Why?  It was Stan.  I couldn't hope to keep Munich against=20
both France and Italy so I hoped to get Stan willing to work with me=20
despite my move on Jake, and to do that, I had to keep the pressure=20
up against Justin.  Why attack Jake?  Well, the stab of Austria=20
would have netted me a center or two, but it would have given Jake=20
all of Turkey and most of the Balkans with me fairly unable to=20
defend my new territories should Jake want them.  And Jake refused=20
to support me into Vienna in the spring, instead requiring yet again=20
that he gain first - an unfortunate reminder of similar "greed" when=20
I failed in my attack on Turkey.  Not trusting Austria at all, I=20
simply allowed the stab to go on, hoping that Austria would defend=20
itself adequately (which he didn't).

I have trouble believing that Eelco talked Jake into attacking=20
Spain.  I wonder how that would have played in the final=20
negotiations?  Obviously, it put the final nail in Jake's winning=20
chances, but it also got the hammer and nail ready for mine.  With=20
France unable to help me in Germany, I could not hope to make=20
progress against England, and I was actually more worried at the=20
time about Italian chances.

It was a mistake not to cover Rumania that fall when I knew Austria=20
was being attacked, but I was concerned about the Turk fleet in=20
Black Sea trying to nab one of my centers in desperation, and I=20
expected Sevastopol to be the more likely to be attacked.  The=20
failure to cover Rumania might have made a difference - I don't=20
really know.  Since I saw my only chance to win as being with=20
Austrian cooperation at this point, I was much more generous with my=20
tactics than I should have been.


> E-COUNT
> The situation. France was about to embark on a sort of suicide=20
mission=20
> against Italy. England was about to get significant gains which=20
should kill=20
> of any hopes Russia, Italy or I would've had to achieve boardtop.=20
That is=20
> unless someone was to throw centers rapidly to anyone else. With=20
my retreat=20
> to Rum earlier I was thinking Russia was going to count on me=20
throwing=20
> things to him, but I was wondering if he would do the same for me.=20
Sure, he=20
> told me he would, and who knows maybe even Jake would! Anyway,=20
England was=20
> heading for additional centers in France and Iberia and I'm sure=20
Russia=20
> would've tried to thwart me throwing centers to Italy as much as=20
Italy=20
> wanted to thwart me throwing centers to Russia. In that light=20
maybe I=20
> should've gone for the gentlemens approach, using this thought=20
about Jake=20
> and Paul not granting eachother the victory and that they might=20
both have=20
> been okay with throwing centers to me, but it was just a little=20
too much=20
> counting on 2 others who would want to allow me this, 'especially'=20
as we all=20
> could live with the fact that Justin would take boardtop! Anyway,=20
Jake=20
> suggested a bizar deal a turn earlier and I didn't embrace it=20
eagerly then.=20
> But I slept it over for a week or so. Evaluating the situation I=20
began to=20
> think more and more it was an unconventional way for me to take=20
boardtop=20
> afterall ... But...what if I lost the e-count deal? Then what=20
about my=20
> messages, after Italian stab 1 and in future turns, to all the=20
others that I=20
> would never allow Italy to get boardtop? I calculated that even=20
with me=20
> throwing centers to Jake, Stan would start throwing centers to=20
Justin as=20
> easily, as Stan would never allow an Italian win either. And I'm=20
sure Russia=20
> would feel betrayed as well and maybe (if necessary) hand England=20
any=20
> necessary centers to beat Jake... Bottom line, Jake would probably=20
never=20
> beat Justin to boardtop, so I could always agree to the deal=20
knowing it was=20
> then me or Justin winning this thing.
>=20

I agree with your analysis of Jake's chances at this point.  He was=20
not going to win over Justin if that was the choice.  Still, I may=20
have fared better had you lost this E-count thing.  I hesitated a=20
season too long in moving south and so lost the positional advantage=20
I might have had.  (I considered attacking into Tyrolia for instance=20
and moving into Galicia.)  But any move southward would be a choice=20
to show myself for Justin and ruin any meager hopes I had for=20
turning things around to my benefit.  By holding onto that dream a=20
season too long, I made it so I could not oppose the late Austrian=20
charge except by defending what I had and giving what was left to=20
Justin.


Paul of Russia






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