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I'm not all that sure that the MCA's have changed that much over the years, Jonathan. They really don't seem to be affected that much by the trends you mentioned. We still seem to favor meatier Euros of about 2 hour duration, just as we always have.
I decided to check that theory out by putting each of our nominated games this year into a broad category. Here's the breakdown I came up with, more or less in order of weight (keeping in mind that these categorizations are more art than science):
Euro Strategy - 10
Heavy Thematic - 1
Shorter Euro - 4
Middleweight - 6
Super Filler - 2
Filler - 3
Not much in the way of roll 'n' writes, nor of thematic games or those teeming with miniatures. So some changes, but much the same focus that the MCA's have always had (which is quite similar to what the Geek ratings focused on 10 or so years ago).
Larry