German BSI update of Status of Quantum Computer Development v2.1

Hi,

https://www.bsi.bund.de/SharedDocs/Downloads/DE/BSI/Publikationen/Studien/Quantencomputer/Entwicklungstand_QC_V_2_1.html?nn=916616

See "Current state (Version 2.1)" near the end of the study report.

From NIST PQC Forum today:

"The conclusion of this current version of the study is that quantum
computing is making steady progress towards cryptanalytic relevance
according to the reliable mainstream (fault-tolerant (improved) Shor
algorithm, executed either on a superconducting system with the surface
code or an ion-based system with the color code). Major roadblocks in
this scenario were resolved in 2024, bringing us a lot closer to this
goal even without large disruptions. The conservative estimate is that
cryptographically relevant quantum computers are likely to be available
within 16 years.

Moreover, there are now a plethora of new developments in error
correction and mitigation as well as hardware with the large progress in
neutral atoms. The landscape is constantly evolving and significant
changes could still occur, leading to unexpected surprises, and most of
the possible disruptive results in this context could accelerate the
development to below a decade.

Regarding NISQ algorithms, the study currently concludes that the
limited evidence available does not yet permit a conclusive assessment.
However, it makes a cautious assumption of low relevance for cryptanalysis.

Best wishes,
Kaveh (Bashiri) from BSI, Germany's Federal Office for Information Security"

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