[saag] Re: [Pqc] Re: [SAAG] A New Theory on Post-q uantum Migration

I would likewise be interested to know what version of “hybrid” was used as a basis for these calculations and what form of attack. Some variants of hybrids have known stripping attacks or are not SUF-CMA, etc. It is not clear how the claimed basis of probabilities were combined with known vulnerabilities for certain types of hybrid/composites to get resulting probabilities.

It is stated that there are “not necessarily” more bugs – which can be true – but the “not necessarily” argument also applies improved security for hybrids, so I would like to understand if that quantitative impact is consistently applied.



From: Deirdre Connolly <[email protected]>
Date: Monday, November 3, 2025 at 9:26 AM
To: Wang Guilin <[email protected]>
Cc: IETF SAAG <[email protected]>, pqc <[email protected]>, Wang Guilin <[email protected]>
Subject: [Pqc] Re: [saag] [SAAG] A New Theory on Post-quantum Migration

NPS WARNING: *external sender* verify before acting.

> A PQ signature has risk of 1/100, not as mature as
T… before 2035, against classic and CRQC attacks.

Where is this number coming from?

3 noy 2025, B.e., 11:42 AM tarixində Wang Guilin <[email protected]<mailto:[email protected]>> yazdı:
Dear all,

Last night, I gave a talk with title of A New Theory on Post-quantum Migration at HotRFC lightning talk session.

In case you are interested in it, welcome to discuss! (Personaly, I like it)

The sildes availvale here:
https://datatracker.ietf.org/meeting/124/materials/slides-124-hotrfc-sessa-11-pq-migration-00

This talk offers a new viewpoint for the value of hybrid post-quantum (PQ) migration. It is a quantitative analysis on different migration policies, with simple probability reasoning. Not complex, understandable to everyone. The context is based on recent discussions in Pquip, Jose/Cose, and Lamps WGs. The purpose is to invoke further thoughts on PQ migration policies. Under the assumptions given, hybrid signatures can reduce the migration risk 5 times lower than pure PQ migration.

Cheers,

Guilin

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