I-Cap Monitor - April 5, 2002

April 5, 2002

User
Interface Part I:

The GUI Shows its Age

We've learned a lot since
the days when user interfaces were a programming afterthought. Billions
of dollars are now poured into corporate and academic research with the
single goal of making computing, communication and entertainment devices
easier to use. But wasn't Hal -- or at least something approximating him
-- supposed to be here by now? Punch cards are long gone, but the
mainstream computing world has stuck to a "WIMP" (window,
icon, menu & pointer) paradigm for the last 15 years. That's at
least five years too long.

The stepping stones to alternative
interfaces are finally falling into place. They include technical
developments like infrastructure maturity, device convergence, and
advances in voice and text-recognition software, as well as the softer
(but just as crucial) notion of user readiness. Over the next five
years, voice input and larger, high-resolution displays will be the most
obvious change to the way the average person interacts with technology.
Pervasive computing is not far behind. New user interfaces are
inseparable from the future of computing itself --- a not-so-distant
world where devices recede into the background and interfaces are
everywhere.
The desktop computer is only one example of a device that has outgrown
its interface. Telephones, palmtops, automobiles and hard-disk video
recorders could all benefit from a major interface overhaul.

READ
VOLUME 1 OF CONVERGENCE SYNDICATE

The OSS Industry:

Time to Consolidate?

MetaSolv
Software's purchase of the remaining OSS software assets of Nortel
Networks in January 2002 not only marked the end of the ailing telecom
giant's failed OSS experiment, but also the first move in the potential
consolidation of the highly fragmented Fulfillment and Assurance
segments of the OSS Industry.

While
the Customer Relationship & Management sector has long been
dominated by industry giants such as Siebel, Oracle, PeopleSoft, and
Epiphany, and the Billing sector has consolidated over the past
couple of years with Amdoc's acquisition of Solect, Convergys'
acquisition of Geneva Technologies and CSG Systems' acquisition of Kenan
Systems from Lucent, the Fulfillment and Assurance segments have
continued to support a large number of specialist OSS players. However,
as the telecom industry continues to struggle, this looks set to
change.

READ THE
INTELLIGENCE BRIEF

Security Software:

Already Feeling the Pinch

The
ink isn't even dry on ICA's Intelligence Report forecasting a slowdown
in the security industry -- and in security software in particular --
when leaders such as Check Point, SonicWall and RSA Securities began
warning this week of lower earnings going forward. To date, these
companies had been largely protected from an overall slowdown in the
software market. Not any more. SonicWall said sales would fall to about
18 percent below Wall Street's estimates, while Check Point forecast
earnings about 15 percent below First Call estimates and RSA Securities
estimated revenue would slip to about 25 percent less than expected.

This
is only the early effects of what will be an overall slowdown in capital
spending on security as companies shift their dollars to less defensive
measures and change their overall approach to security solutions. In a
recent report entitled "Network Security: When Fears Subside,"
ICA predicted "the trends that we believe will shape the next wave
of security products are the increasing emphasis on security integration
and intelligence, the shift toward hardware products for Virtual Private
Networks and security product suites, and the rise of
personalization."

READ THE
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Venture
Corner

Entrepreneurs
and VC:

A Love-Hate Relationship

Silicon
Valley, D.C., the Research Triangle, Manhattan, L.A., and other major
metropolitan areas around the country have long supported a quality base
of 'serial entrepreneurs.' This has not changed. What has changed
is their willingness to invite private equity investors into their most
prized possessions. Cram downs, down rounds, and
closed room sales of portfolio companies left many business operators
without the equity positions they found so irresistible upon joining the
company and collecting significantly reduced paychecks as portfolio
companies were 'encouraged' to become buoyant.

As the pendulum swings in the tenuous relations between
Venture Capitalist and their lifeblood, Entrepreneurs, what gets
financed often has less to do with cutting edge innovation and more to
do with iron stomachs. Understanding
the wake you create in your community of interest is of equal importance
to understanding the return on invested capital, yet has not received
the valuation it warrants.

READ THE
FULL COLUMN

New Research:

OSS
Handbook

now available

Need
a better understanding of the OSS industry, its key players, competitive
pressures, and future landscape? ICA's new
OSS Industry Handbook does all of that, and more.

Click here to view the
report's table of contents and sample profile of one of 25 private OSS vendors
covered in the report.

Content Producers: Another
Revolution?

In the first of three
Intelligence Reports, collectively titled "Content Convergence: One
Network, One Box," the ICA Syndicate looks at content producers - from
film and TV producers to print and online media, internet search engines, aggregators
and enablers. What will the landscape look like? What will be the key trends,
revenue models and product strategies? Who will be the winners and
losers?

Click here to view the
report's executive summary and table of contents.

Convergence Syndicate

Register now for the latest syndicate from ICA. Receive 12 monthly reports forecasting
and analyzing the collision of Voice, Data & Video, for $50 per month.

The iSecurity Suite

The
third part of the iSecurity series report is now available, highlighting the
three main trends that will shape the next wave of network security products.

Read
more details

Convergence in
the News:

Forbes:
Will convergence kill local TV?

CNET:
FCC urges advances in digital TV

Bloomberg:
AOL Time Warner CEO-elect 'Don't rush me'

Copyright
2002 Intellectual Capital Associates , LLC. All
Rights Reserved.

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