Re: [Scalzi] Oscar predictions 2011

> http://whatever.scalzi.com/2011/01/26/oscar-predictions-2011/

>> *What will win: *At this point, I’m thinking *The King’s Speech *is 
>> going to pull a *Shakespeare in Love *on us.

>> Also, since I think the Academy is likely to play it safe with Best 
>> Picture this year, I think giving Fincher the director Oscar will make 
>> the voters feel they’ve given his film sufficient recognition. In the 
>> *Shakespeare in Love*scenario, Fincher is Steven Spielberg. And that 
>> doesn’t suck.

Yeah, this is the vibe I've been picking up from a few people.

It's funny, but Picture and Director used to go to the same film almost 
all the time -- there were divergences maybe once per decade (1981: 
Picture went to Chariots of Fire, Director went to Reds; 1989: Picture 
went to Driving Miss Daisy, Director went to Born on the Fourth of July; 
1998: Picture went to Shakespeare in Love, Director went to Saving Private 
Ryan), but then something happened... and now, over the past decade plus, 
we've seen divergences every two or three years (2000: Picture went to 
Gladiator, Director went to Traffic; 2002: Picture went to Chicago, 
Director went to The Pianist; 2005: Picture went to Crash, Director went 
to Brokeback Mountain... actually we're kinda overdue for another split 
like this now, aren't we?).

>> Likewise, I think James Franco is pleased as punch that he’s being 
>> taken seriously, although frankly the man’s sudden ascent in the 
>> realm of serious acting still has me feeling a little flat-footed. He 
>> was so shouty in those Spider-Man films, you know?

FWIW, I *love* Franco.  So good in Freaks & Geeks over a decade ago, so 
good as the pot dealer with a heart of gold in Pineapple Express (he 
invested his otherwise jokey character with actual *feeling*), etc., etc.

But I have no problem with Colin Firth winning this award, this year, for 
the performance and the film that he will win it for.  He's superb.

>> *SUPPORTING ACTRESS*

>> That said, everyone I know says this year is likely to come down to a 
>> fight between Melissa Leo and Amy Adams, and I don’t really see any 
>> reason to doubt that. If it does come down to the two of them, the coin 
>> flip I just did points to Adams.
>>
>> *Who will win: *Adams.

Huh.  Everything I've heard gives the edge to Leo, and was doing so even 
before she won the Golden Globe a couple weeks back.

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