Anti-Harper voters may be reassessing leaders as campaign nears end

For what it's worth, it occurs to me that it might be to Stephen Harper's advantage if Jack Layton *does* become the Opposition Leader.

Think about it: Michael Ignatieff has been running to lead the country, and lately he has even been allowing for the possibility that he might take power away from Harper even if Harper wins the election, through a "no confidence" vote etc. Ignatieff has been assuming, all along, that the top two parties in this election will be the Tories and the Grits, which is pretty much how it has *always* been (even during that ten-year period between 1993 and 2003 when the Tories were wandering in the wilderness, the Opposition Leaders all came from parties that had split off from the Tories).

But if the NDP -- which has never been higher than third place, and for the past 18 years has been in fourth place -- suddenly emerged in second place, then a "no confidence" vote would lead to Layton, rather than Ignatieff, becoming the prime minister in Harper's place. And I can't help thinking that this would be such a blow to Ignatieff's pride that he would never allow that to happen.

I mean, seriously. The Liberals have never, ever been the "third party" in Canada's 144-year history. They've usually been first -- hence their nickname "the natural governing party" -- and sometimes they've been second. But never third. Never, ever third.

So, bad enough that Ignatieff would have to go down in history as only the third Liberal leader who never got to be prime minister (the other two are Edward Blake, who led the party in the 1880s, and Stephane Dion, Ignatieff's immediate predecessor). But to go down in history as the leader under whom the Liberals fell out of the Top Two Parties for the first time ever? That would be embarrassing. And I don't know that Ignatieff or any other Liberal would want to be a cabinet member in an NDP government.

So, if the NDP was leading the opposition and there was a "no confidence" vote, would Ignatieff or any other Liberal support the motion? I doubt it. But we'll see.

- - -

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/politics/second-reading/bruce-anderson/anti-harper-voters-may-be-reassessing-leaders-as-campaign-nears-end/article1995614/

Bruce Anderson
Globe and Mail Blog
Posted on Friday, April 22, 2011 11:35AM EDT

The most recent polls paint a clear picture of the size of the challenge facing the Liberals, but the actual nature of the challenge is subtle and complex. It lies below the surface of the horse race numbers.

Roughly 60 per cent of Canadians don’t want to vote for Stephen Harper’s Conservatives. When these folks think there is a chance to replace the Conservatives with another government, some of them will consider voting for a party that isn’t their first choice. This was, of course, the game plan of the Liberals in 2004, 2006, 2008 and lots of times in the last century, too. 

However, if these voters conclude they are going to get a Conservative government regardless of how they vote, their thought process may change.

They may become focused on who they want to lead the daily charge against the government, to keep the next Harper government honest.

If we assume for the sake of argument that this is in effect the new ballot question for these voters, it’s playing to Jack Layton’s advantage. If the next 10 days is like an audition for the role of Opposition Leader, he may or may not win the role, but his screen test is already going pretty well.

First, he’s the only one who’s been campaigning for this job, and he’s been at it for years. (He always says he’s running to be PM, but no one believes that even he believes it). Lots of voters might not want him to run anything, but like him as a champion of the little guy.

He comes across to voters as an articulate, energetic, and genuine fellow. He’s seen as a partisan, but also a nice guy. He can throw a hard punch, but he also smiles a lot.

Many of the voters I’m talking about are left of centre on the spectrum. Certainly they are almost all to the left of Stephen Harper. They would probably like the policy ideas that are contained in the Liberal platform, but the Family Pack has been getting little air play. Without having to study his platform, these voters know intuitively by now where Mr. Layton’s values are. And again, they are not looking for a Layton government.

Gilles Duceppe doesn’t ask to be Opposition Leader. He campaigns solely to defend Quebec’s interests. But if Quebecers dislike Conservative governments, (and they lead the country in that category) voting BQ has proven completely futile at avoiding that outcome. It’s logical that many would wonder if its not time to re-engage and consider a pan-Canadian party at some point, and equally logical that they would look for one with social democratic DNA.

Michael Ignatieff as Opposition Leader didn’t make much of an impact on voters. He’s campaigning better, but even he’s been wondering aloud why his campaign isn’t connecting with more voters. The risk for him is in that group of voters who prefer him to Stephen Harper as PM, but doubt he will win that race, and aren’t sure he’d be the most effective Opposition Leader.

Ten days ago, conventional wisdom had it that the campaign was all but over, and nothing different would come of it. Today, new scenarios are created every hour or two. The safest bet is that there may be a turn or two left as voters start to think more seriously about the choice they will make on May 2. Until then, the fluctuations in the polls are the sound of people thinking out loud, not deciding.


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