Adam's LA Lakers Fatwah

[ Adam's take on the finals.  2 June 2004. -d ]

Alright, as promised, here is my *expert* take on the NBA Finals, this year
between the Lakers and Pistons. I have yet to read any of the other
so-called "experts" pronounce their guess as to how this series will play
out, but I'm willing to bet that most of it could be substituted with the
sentence, "There is no way that the Lakers can be stopped." They couldn't be
more wrong.

The playoffs, as we all know, are a defensive-oriented set of games, and
pace becomes increasingly important. While the Lakers have struggled to
consistently impose their will on injury-riddled teams (in particular the
Spurs and Mavs series), The Pistons have been dominating. In fact, the Bucks
averaged 85.6 ppg in the first round, the Nets averaged 83.3 after that, and
the Pacers averaged 72.7. Think about it - the teams are getting better, the
pressure's getting more intense, and the Pistons are getting...BETTER?! The
true mark of a champion.

Still looking only at these playoffs, look at the series that these teams
have been through: The Lakers struggled with the lowly Rockets (sorry,
David), struggled even more with the Spurs, and barely escaped a rabid KG
and the Wolves. They were badly beaten (10+ points difference) at least once
each series. Detroit, if they continue to play at the level they've been
playing at (and I guarantee Larry Brown won't let them drop the intensity a
BIT), will not lose their concentration and let LA destroy them. With scores
not likely to crest 90 points, LA won't have the chance to collect itself
when it drops the ball in this series as well.

The Pistons haven't exactly had a breeze through the playoffs, but in all of
the series, their preferred speed determined the game's pace. The defensive,
grind-it-out style of play will never give you a 20 point lead, but it won't
blow a 6 point one, either. They'll need to come out of the gate strong in
every game, but with Rip's CRAZY series over the Pacers and the Nets, his
confidence will get the ball in his hands and through the net at least 3 or
4 times every first quarter this series. They'll also be fresher, as they've
probably run about half the distance the Lakers have this postseason up and
down the court. And they're younger, anyway, so double that advantage up.

Now, the matchups. Defensively, the Pistons disrupt offensive rhythm better
than any time in recent memory. If a player gets a shot, the next 3 trips
down the floor he can't even breathe. Points in the Paint regularly number
in the single digits against them, meaning that the dump-it-in-to-Shaq thing
is just not gonna happen with the ease it has against the more milquetoast
centers thusfar encountered by the Big Fucking Idiot, Nesterovic and E.
Johnson. The triangle offense is also dependent on outside shooting, which
once again plays into the Pistons' hands. With their perimeter length,
quickness, and athleticism, watch how many shots get altered by Tayshaun
Prince and Rip Hamilton. Kobe will have more fingers in his face than he had
in that girl from Colorado, every time down the floor.

Offensively, it's going to be tough for the Pistons, but they won't need a
whole lot. If any tandem can solve the Shaq problem, it's Ben and Rasheed
Wallace. Ben can tire him out, move him around, and hold his ground against
him, while Sheed dekes and glides past him. Ben's been averaging over 10 a
game this postseason, but watch it jump up once Rasheed starts working the
fake to the board and the dish off to his man with the afro. Rip will find
his shots, and Kobe's still not in perfect shape, which, as we all know from
hearing the announcers say it 40 billion times, is good since Rip runs his
defenders to death.

The Bench is all Pistons. They've got depth they haven't even touched yet,
but they'll throw it all out there. Between their regular rotation guys
underneath, the Wallaces, Prince, Okur, and Williamson, they've got 30 fouls
they can throw at Shaq. They've got others on the bench, too. Larry Brown
will use them all, and Shaq will wilt at the free throw line. Guarantee it.

And to throw it all together, we have Larry Brown going against Phil
Jackson. Larry Brown is due, folks - the best pure coach in the game, he
TEACHES players to UNDERSTAND his system, he doesn't make them perform it.
You'll hear people on the Lakers gripe about shots, but not the Pistons,
even though there's only about half as many to go around. The reason? The
players UNDERSTAND what has to be done to win in that system. Phil's a great
coach, and he can trick his team into doing what he wants most of the time,
but they rarely seem to have a conscious grasp of what's happening. They
play by talent and very little setup, and against a brick wall defense like
Brown's Pistons, the ethereal zen-coaching bullshit is gonna flop.

Now, I know what you're saying, "but Adam, why didn't the Sixers win in '01
then?" Well, my friends, I'll tell you: The Sixers team that won a game
against the Lakers in that finals was 1) completely undermanned (A.I. and
umm....who now?), 2) injury riddled (I don't know how many of you remember
the graphic with the red dots on Iverson's body indicating injuries...and he
wasn't the worst one on the team), and 3) not suited to Larry Brown's
coaching style (not enough length on the roster to bother perimeter
defenders while still staying within 17 feet of the bucket, and the guy
playing 48 minutes a game is 5'11" in boots - not a defensive stopper).
These Pistons are deep, healthy, and custom-made for a Larry Brown defense.
Rasheed Wallace is clicking now, and the offensive end of his game is coming
together. With a fourth valid scoring option (after Hamilton, Billups, and
Prince) and the lockdown defense, their starting 5 matches up better to the
Lakers than anyone...but just in case you needed a man-by-man breakdown:

PG - Gary Payton vs. Chauncey Billups:   Billups can D up on anyone and
shoot the 3. He's a clone of Payton in a lot of ways, but is more versatile,
although not as purely talented.           -DRAW-

SG - Kobe Bryant vs. Rip Hamilton: Rip will get eaten by Kobe if he tries to
D him up to seriously, but he's more of an offensive player, and besides,
the Wallaces have his back. His style of moving without the ball will give
Kobe fits as a guy who likes to body up opponents on D as well as tire him
out from running around all those picks.             -DRAW-

SF - Devean George vs. Tayshaun Prince: Prince is quickly becoming the man,
while Devean George's career is suffering from an overdependence on
athleticism. Athletic guys HATE long guys, cuz they play hell with their
ability to do all those nifty things with the ball. Watch George to cough up
the ball a lot and have Jackson calling for a sub.
      -PISTONS-

PF - Karl Malone vs. Rasheed Wallace: Rasheed Wallace has been playing very
well this postseason, and against Malone, one of his oldest foes, he'll step
it up even more. He knows Malone's game, and he's not intimidated by Karl's
big bad trucker act. You'll probably see at least one double technical
coming from this matchup, but more than that, you'll see Rasheed pissing
Karl off by whooping up on him at both ends of the floor.
-PISTONS-

C - Shaq vs. Ben Wallace: Believe it or not, Big Ben's averaging almost 12
points a game in the postseason - add to that his defensive presence
EVERYWHERE within the 3-point line, and he's guarding 3 or 4 guys, not just
one. Shaq is still Shaq, though, and will demand a double team no matter WHO
you have out there against him. In the end, Shaq wins, but only due by the
slimmest of margins. Oh, and Ben might get MORE points with a defender like
Shaq on him - He tends to get a little too relaxed when not threatened with
a scoring machine inside. Ben just takes what he can get.       -LAKERS-

BENCH - Derek Fisher, Rick Fox, and Slava Medvedenko vs. Corliss Williamson,
Mike James, and Mehmet Okur: The depth of the Pistons is deceptive. They
don't have a top-flight player like Fisher or Fox coming off the bench, but
with the system they run, it wouldn't help anyway if it were Tracy McGrady
and Allen Iverson coming off the bench. They have role players who can come
in and hold the line while their scoring sits. Most importantly, they have
enough depth at the size positions to keep pushing O'Neal to the line, and
making him fuck up in an embarassing matter. This will be the real X-factor,
and whoever shows up here will win the game for their team.
-DRAW-

INTANGIBLES: Experience vs. Discipline: The Lakers have been there before,
and they know what to expect. The Pistons, though, are not an easily-rattled
bunch. They share a locker room with Rasheed Wallace, after all. I think
that in the end, experience only matters if the other team acknowledges that
it matters, and the Pistons won't give an inch. This team seems mean, not
like the flashy, talented Nets. They seemed right to be put down when they
got there. The Pistons will kick and scratch and bite the whole way, and the
Lakers don't like that. It really could go either way, but I feel as if the
Lakers don't want it as much as the Pistons do, so I'll give it to them, by
a hair's breadth.

So that's the breakdown - not counting the matchups that cancel each other
out, the Pistons win 3-1, although it's really more like 2-1 since a few are
so close. But, if you need yet MORE evidence that the Pistons are gonna win,
check out the eerie similarities between this season's run and the 1988 run
that led to the first of 2 championships for the Motor City Bad Boys:

--In 1988, The Pistons pulled the trigger on a trade to bring the
hot-tempered but very talented power forward Mark Aguirre to their team. In
2004, Rasheed Wallace, the hot-tempered but very talented power forward,
joins the team.

--In 1988, the Pistons brought a bruising style of defense that harrassed
opponents into less than 80 ppg, best in the league. In 2004, the Pistons
held opponents to 82.1 ppg, best in the league.

--In 1988, The Lakers brought out Kareem Abdul-Jabbar at Center and Magic
Johnson at Guard as the centerpieces of their potent attack. In 2004,
Shaquille O'Neal and Kobe Bryant make up the most similar tandem.

--In 1988, Joe Dumars stepped up his defensive presence in the playoffs to
build a name for himself as a feared defender. In 2004, the world (as well
as Reggie Miller) met Tayshaun Prince

--In 1988, Kareem Abdul Jabbar, the Lakers center, wanted to end his career
with a championship after 20 years on the court. Karl Malone, the senior
Laker in 2004, took a huge paycut for a chance to contend. Won't it be fun
to watch him lose?

Well, now that I've wasted an hour and a half, I hope you all know why
everyone (meaning myself, and pretty much only myself) calls me the smartest
guy on Earth. I need a cigarette.

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