http://www.nytimes.com/2004/06/23/politics/23MILI.html?ex=1088568000& en=09b5ad9faf64ccbf& ei=5062& partner=GOOGLE

NO SHIT.

Wolfowitz Testifies Pentagon Misjudged the Strength of Iraqi Insurgency
By THOM SHANKER

Published: June 23, 2004

WASHINGTON, June 22 — Deputy Defense Secretary Paul D. Wolfowitz, a 
prime architect of the Bush administration's Iraq policy, said Tuesday 
that the Pentagon had underestimated the violent tenacity of an 
insurgency that formed after Baghdad fell, and he acknowledged that the 
United States may be forced to keep a significant number of troops in 
Iraq for years to come.

But even under questioning from House Democrats, Mr. Wolfowitz never 
wavered from an optimistic posture as he cited "enormous progress" in 
the effort to stabilize Iraq and hand over responsibility for governing 
and security to the Iraqis.

Mr. Wolfowitz, who just returned from a five-day visit to Iraq, told 
House Armed Services Committee members that he heard military personnel 
from the United States and its allies, as well as Iraqi citizens, say 
the world does not realize the successes achieved as Iraq moves toward 
sovereignty on June 30.

"It's something we heard almost everywhere — from Iraqis, from 
Americans, from a British general down in Basra," Mr. Wolfowitz said. 
"It doesn't mean that there aren't serious problems in Iraq; we all know 
about the problems. But I think that what doesn't get through in all the 
reporting on problems is there's also been enormous progress."

Mr. Wolfowitz's assessment was challenged by Representative Ike Skelton 
of Missouri, the committee's ranking Democrat, who read aloud the 
administration's goals for Iraq as stated last July, and said they had 
still not been met.

"The four pillars of this plan were establishing security, restoring 
essential services, creating conditions for economic development, and 
enabling the transition to democratic governance," Mr. Skelton said. 
"It's clear that these goals have not been achieved, at least not to the 
extent we had hoped, largely because we haven't established security."

Mr. Skelton asked Mr. Wolfowitz whether American forces might be 
required to remain in Iraq for "a good number of years."

"I think it's entirely possible," Mr. Wolfowitz replied. "But what I 
think is also nearly certain is the more they step up, and they will be 
doing so more and more each month, the less and less we will have to do."

Mr. Wolfowitz said Pentagon planners had not counted on the ability of a 
guerrilla-style resistance to form, operate and grow after the capture 
of Saddam Hussein and the arrest or killing of his top advisers.

"If you want to say what might have been underestimated, I think there 
was probably too great a willingness to believe that once we got the 55 
people on the black list, the rest of those killers would stop 
fighting," Mr. Wolfowitz said.

During more than three hours of testimony, Mr. Wolfowitz received 
compliments and support from committee Republicans but dueled with 
Democrats over an exit strategy for American forces and the quality of 
intelligence supplied by Ahmad Chalabi of the Iraqi National Congress.

When pressed to address charges that Mr. Chalabi provided false 
intelligence on Iraq's program for unconventional weapons, which helped 
form the administration's arguments for war, Mr. Wolfowitz said "nothing 
in Iraq is black and white."

But he said American military commanders told him that "some of the 
intelligence that his organization has provided us has saved American 
lives and enabled us to capture some key enemy targets."

Mr. Wolfowitz also defended the Bush administration's assessment that 
American intelligence had evidence of contacts between Al Qaeda and the 
Hussein government.

Mr. Hussein's Iraq was "a state that had contacts of a murky but ominous 
sort with Al Qaeda," Mr. Wolfowitz said. "The mere fact of contact is 
disturbing."

Committee members also pressed Mr. Wolfowitz about a mismatch between 
individual battlefield successes and a lack of political progress.

"I'm deeply concerned about a precipitous withdrawal of troops, for 
whatever reason, in the short term, if we don't achieve a political 
end-state that is satisfactory to the American people," said 
Representative Ellen O. Tauscher, Democrat of California.

Mr. Wolfowitz offered reassurances, saying "what terrifies the enemy the 
most is the prospect of an elected Iraqi government." He said the 
administration's plan for bringing stability to Iraq is based on passing 
sovereignty to an interim government by July 1; training and equipping 
Iraqi security forces; moving to an elected government late this year or 
early next year; seeking additional international forces; and forming a 
constitutionally elected government by the end of 2005.

"I would hope five years from now we see an Iraq that has more or less 
effectively defeated this enemy," Mr. Wolfowitz said. "It doesn't mean 
that terrorism will be gone."

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