Poll results send danger signal to Bush

[ Who believes polls though? I am 100% in my own.  -j ]

http://www.usatoday.com/news/opinion/columnist/benedetto/2004-06-25-benedetto_x.htm

Poll results send danger signal to Bush
WASHINGTON — For the first time since U.S. troops invaded Iraq in March 
2003, a majority of Americans say it was a mistake. And that is a 
serious danger signal for the re-election chances of President Bush, who 
has been traveling the country preaching a message of patience and 
steadiness against what he calls the enemies of freedom.

"See, what they're trying to do is they're trying to shake our will and 
our confidence," Bush told reporters Tuesday. "They're trying to get us 
to withdraw from the world so that they can impose their dark vision on 
people."

But a USA TODAY-CNN-Gallup Poll finds that increased violence in Iraq, a 
steady drumbeat of revelations that the intelligence used to justify the 
invasion was flawed, a prisoner abuse scandal and growing doubts that 
the chaotic country can ever be stabilized and managed by its own people 
are indeed shaking that will and confidence.

Overall, 54% of Americans now say the United States made a mistake 
sending troops to Iraq, up sharply from 41% earlier this month. And 51% 
say going to war was not worth the price being paid in money and lives.

It is the first time since Vietnam that a majority of Americans has 
called a major U.S. military operation overseas a mistake.

Those most opposed to the war and pessimistic about its outcome are, of 
course, Democrats. But a growing number of independents, whose votes 
could be pivotal in a close election, are also negative.

The poll results show that:

• 82% of Democrats say sending troops was a mistake.

• 62% of independents agree.

• Only 16% of Republicans say Bush made a mistake.

• 52% of men say invading Iraq was a mistake and 55% of women take the 
same view, a virtual tie within the poll's 
plus-or-minus-3-percentage-point error margin. Men generally are more 
supportive of using military force than women, but this poll doesn't 
show it.

The nationwide poll, taken June 21-23, comes at a time when the news out 
of Iraq is horrendous. Insurgents have escalated attacks on U.S. troops 
and Iraqi civilians, and a South Korean hostage was beheaded this week, 
generating much public outrage.

Taken together, the bloody events reinforced nagging doubts many 
Americans have about whether peace and internal security can be 
established after power is turned over to an interim Iraqi government 
Wednesday.

Overall, 60% say peace and stability are unlikely to prevail. Yet, 75% 
favor the turnover, a sign that many hope the switch will decrease 
attacks on U.S. troops and hasten their return home.

On the election just more than four months away, the race between Bush 
and Democrat John Kerry remains tight. Among likely voters, Bush holds a 
razor-thin lead, 48% to 47%, a virtual tie. But even with the bad news 
from Iraq, Bush actually gained support. Earlier this month, Kerry led 
by a more comfortable 49% to 43%.

The findings suggest that Bush still retains a significant measure of 
confidence in his leadership, even though things are going badly now. 
Asked who they trusted more to handle to job of commander in chief, Bush 
or Kerry, most said Bush, 51% to 43%. But they also said Bush and Kerry 
were equally qualified for the job.

At the same time, most said Kerry would better manage the economy, 53% 
to 40%. However, Kerry's main economic argument, that most Americans are 
worse off under Bush, was contradicted by the poll.

Asked if they and their families were better or worse off than they were 
four years ago, 49% said better and 36% worse. And approval for Bush's 
handling of the economy, still under 50%, is on the upswing.

Hard to figure, unless you conclude that this election is being driven 
by the war, not the economy. And it is.
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