Re: Geoff Huston on IP address space utilisation in 2015.

100% Agreed with that Nishal,

However, I will also say that in a similar vein, the lack of participation in AfriNIC by South African ISP’s I believe is also leaving many of them blissfully unaware of how close to the brink we actually are, and irrespective of trying to “fix” this issue or not, I still believe that ISP’s should have a say in their own destinies, and part of their destiny is how they are going to handle being unable to get more IPv4 space, and how fast that IPv4 space disappears.

This is not necessarily about trying to “fix” the problem, its about the fact that as illustrated by the fact that 2.1 million IP addresses disappeared to a broker because of apathy and lack of participation by the continents largest section of member base, negative things can happen when policies are left to someone else to decide.

Who knows what policy proposals could appear tomorrow, or the next day, and what impact they could have on all of us? 

The fact that South Africa holds more than a third of the member base, yet exercises less than 10% of the votes cast in any election when choosing the directors, and represents a tiny percentage of participation in the policy formulation process is a disgrace and highly dangerous.

Andrew



On 01/02/2016, 11:29 AM, "[email protected] on behalf of Nishal Goburdhan" <[email protected] on behalf of [email protected]> wrote:

>On 28 Jan 2016, at 18:02, Andrew Alston wrote:
>
>> Anyone involved in AfriNIC can tell you, the guys name is Lu Heng.  He 
>> is largely suspected of being an IP broker (and in fact to my 
>> knowledge has admitted such)
>>
>> Bottom line though, his applications for space were in line with 
>> AfriNIC policies, as created by the community.  The community has been 
>> warned time and again about the policies and the ambiguity in them and 
>> the fact that they allow for pillaging of African IP space.  The 
>> community has chosen to do nothing and leave the policies as they are. 
>>  And yes, I point a finger at every single South African AfriNIC 
>> member in this regard, because those members have avoided the meetings 
>> largely, they do not participate on the RPD list, and the policies 
>> remain what they are because of apathy and lack of action on the 
>> behalf of the majority of the membership base.
>>
>> The next meeting of AfriNIC is in Gaborone, in late May, if we want 
>> any hope of avoiding the last of the african IP space running off the 
>> continent, policies are going to need to change there, and that 
>> requires a room full of people to push for consensus on sane policy.  
>> If ISP’s in South Africa are even vaguely serious about being able 
>> to get space beyond March next year, I’d strongly suggest they show 
>> up and have their say, and at the very least get on the RPD mailing 
>> list and have their say there.
>>
>> If you want some REALLY scary numbers, read this:
>>
>> https://lists.afrinic.net/pipermail/rpd/2016/005203.html
>
>
>or, to quote geoff again:
>http://www.potaroo.net/tools/ipv4/plotend.png
>
>v4 run out is inevitable.  sorry, but if you’re going to waste your 
>time trying to fix this in policy, in an environment with *very* low 
>SNR, you’re just trying to save a very leaky bucket.  for every 
>scenario that’s being discussed on the RPD list, there’s been known, 
>real world violations at other RIRs.
>if you run a network, the truth is simple;  v6 is coming soon, AND, even 
>if you want to deny that, running v4 is going to get a *lot* costlier 
>than it currently is ..
>i’m all for running down afrinic’s v4 space;  maybe then we can stop 
>wasting folks’ time at the mic, and work on more substanstive issues?
>
>—n.
>
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