Re: Geoff Huston on IP address space utilisation in 2015.

Btw Hendrik,

With regards your statement that we have an abundance, that’s actually inaccurate.

V4 space at current allocation rates in Africa if the rates do not change will be done by March next year, and we’ll be hitting the current soft landing policy (unless repealed in Gabarone) by July or August.

Andrew





On 12/02/2016, 11:09 PM, "[email protected] on behalf of Hendrik Visage" <[email protected] on behalf of [email protected]> wrote:

>On Fri, Feb 12, 2016 at 6:27 PM, Joe Abley <[email protected]> wrote:
>>
>> On 1 Feb 2016, at 03:29, Nishal Goburdhan <[email protected]> wrote:
>>
>>> v4 run out is inevitable.  sorry, but if you’re going to waste your time trying to fix this in policy, in an environment with *very* low SNR, you’re just trying to save a very leaky bucket.
>>
>> Long-term viability of the network is one thing. Where the cash associated with the single remaining supply of a scarce resource goes is another; it can either leave the continent or it can stay.
>>
>> This reminds me of a similar tension in Canada relating to oil sands development: on the one hand there's an inevitable future that is not driven by carbon, so why waste time developing what is a very resource-intensive way of pulling it out of the sand; on the other hand, as the oil runs out and demand peaks over supply, there's money to be made that makes the investment arguably more worthwhile than it has ever been before.
>>
>> In the case of oil there's an ecological argument for leaving the carbon in the ground. When it comes to v4 markets, there are no boats of bearded activists defending the pristine sanctity of 32-bit integers.
>>
>> However, there are also established national and regional regulators that control the flow of money resulting from the oil extraction -- paraphrasing Andrew's call to arms, perhaps these particular integers are continental-scale national resources, and need some regulation that reflects that.
>
>The problem with those "regulations" and "money flows", is that it
>just prolongs the inevitable... and by implication, our suffering and
>hurt... if we have IPv4 runs out in totality, then it'll be a way to
>start getting our consumers requesting IPv6 from the 3G, ADSL and
>fibre providers. Then we'll have a case where Telkom/etc. are either
>forced to getting IPv6, or we'll have to handle the pains of trying to
>preserve IPv4 for a tad longer, and then people starts to move
>elsewhere where they do get IPv6 etc.
>
>I'm totally in favor of letting the IPv4 run out and having people pay
>through their ears together with an arm and a leg for it... thereby
>gently forcing then to go the "costs savings" route to get IPv6
>equipment installed and running
>
>We in Africa are just a bit blessed to actually have an abundance of
>available IPv4 given our lagging behind the tech curves (or rather us
>being more consumers than producers of content). That same abundance
>is our curse, as that'll not force our ISPs neither our national ADSL
>carrier nor our cellular providers to start deploying and testing IPv6
>for the masses...
>
>/me also want to buy a /8 to do his part in the depletion
>acceleration... just need the monies to buy that for a start ;(
>
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