Re: Wikipedia at 25: A Wake-Up Call (essay)

Hi,

3 months later, a new statistic: mobile page views dropped by 19% in one
year.

We are back to the mobile traffic levels of 2018.
https://stats.wikimedia.org/#/all-projects/reading/total-page-views/normal|bar|2016-01-01~2026-04-28|(access)~mobile-app*mobile-web+agent~user|monthly
<https://stats.wikimedia.org/#/all-projects/reading/total-page-views/normal%7Cbar%7C2016-01-01~2026-04-28%7C(access)~mobile-app*mobile-web+agent~user%7Cmonthly>

At this rate, our mobile traffic in 2026 will be at the levels of pre-2013.
2013...

In the meantime, Ericsson is reporting a global mobile usage growth of over
20%
https://www.ericsson.com/en/reports-and-papers/mobility-report/dataforecasts/mobile-traffic-update

When I published my essay, I mostly received gentle to aggressive push
back. Back then I was displaying a 8% drop. Now a 20% year over year.

Why did I pick mobile traffic? Because historically bots are less using
desktop browser UAs which makes the data a bit more reliable for trends.

3 months ago I said we had 24 months ahead of us before irrelevancy. Well
at this rate, in two years we will have lost half of our traffic. And the
sad part is that those downhill trends tend not to slow down.

And what now? Well being very blunt, there's only one body in our movement
that can muster leadership, energy and resources to tackle this topic head
on, that's the board of trustees.

And if 20% doesn't trigger fast and real actions, I have no idea what would.

PS: yes this email is written with a lot of emotion, but minus 20% YoY
should trigger that reaction in everyone.

--
Christophe


On Sat, 10 Jan 2026 at 00:40, Christophe Henner <[email protected]>
wrote:

> Hey everyone,
>
> I struggled with the object, the most honest one would be "Last exit
> before irrelevance" but that would be a bit violent.
>
> So, Wikipedia turns 25 next week. I've been here for over twenty of those
> years, including stints chairing Wikimedia France and the Foundation Board.
> And honestly? I'm worried. Scared to be honnest.
>
> Over the last years, I've been regularly crunching data and sharing on
> different channels my worries. But in the last few weeks I decided to make
> a much more structured "essay" of my findings
>
> Since 2016, the internet nearly doubled in size.
>
> Our page views? Down. New editor sign-ups? Down 36%.
>
> The people keeping this thing running are working harder than ever, but
> there are fewer of them every year.
>
> I wrote it all up: the numbers, what I think went wrong, what I think we
> need to do about it. Fair warning: it's long, it's opinionated, and some of
> it will probably make you mad.
>
> *Here it is: *https://meta.wikimedia.org/wiki/User:Schiste/what-now
>
> I'm not trying to be doom and gloom for the sake of it. I genuinely
> believe we have maybe two years to make some hard calls about AI, about
> money, about who we're actually serving. After that, the window closes and
> we become irrelevant.
>
> Could be wrong. Hope I am. But I'd rather we have this argument now than
> wish we had later. Well I'd rather we had this argument two or four years
> ago, but now we will make do.
>
> Read it, tell me where I'm off base. Let's argue and debate. That's what
> talk pages are for, right?
>
> PS: Foundation board mailing list is bcc'ed, change cannot happen without
> their commitment. And fast.
>
> --
> Christophe
>

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