Grow, peak or plateau - the outlook for car travel

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This may be of interest.

Best regards,

Simon.

----- Forwarded Message -----
From: Glenn Lyons <Glenn.Lyons-8lHrkcC6s/[email protected]>
To: [email protected]=20
Sent: Monday, 14 July 2014, 7:11
Subject: [UTSG] Grow, peak or plateau - the outlook for car travel
=20

Dear colleagues,

Apologies for cross-posting.

Those of you interested in the evidence and debates surrounding 'peak car' =
may find the article 'Grow, peak or plateau - the outlook for car travel' h=
elpful. The article provides a detailed written account of a roundtable dis=
cussion on the topic which took place in London on 20 May 2014. It is now a=
vailable at: http://eprints.uwe.ac.uk/23277/

The summary is included below. Please let me know if you are aware of other=
 emerging examinations of the uncertainties facing future demand for car tr=
avel.

Best wishes,

Glenn

---------------------------------------------------------------------------=
---------------

Summary

At the request of the New Zealand Ministry of Transport, a meeting of UK re=
searchers and commentators was convened in London on 'peak car', a hypothes=
is that per capita car use is close to its maximum level, and may stabilise=
 or turn down. In both countries car traffic forecasts have been overestima=
ted, though current official thinking is that recent levelling off and decl=
ine in car use is a temporary result of poor economic conditions, and that =
a resumption of strong growth is expected in future. Research findings incl=
ude features that may show evidence of structural changes in the influence =
of economic and other drivers of car travel, and/or demand reaching natural=
 saturation levels where further growth gives little benefit to travellers.=
 The discussion reflected diverse experience and judgements, not all in agr=
eement, and mostly related to UK experience, though influenced by a growing=
 international research literature, mostly empirical in focus,
 showing some important similarities in many other countries. Key features =
included:

. There have been strongly divergent trends in different locations (the mai=
n areas of decline being in cities, with growth continuing in many lower de=
nsity areas) and among different groups (young men showing a decline, women=
 an increase), with noticeable differences by journey purpose, length and m=
ode (rail use has grown strongly at the same time as car use has fallen). A=
s a result the trends in national aggregate totals have been damped, not fu=
lly revealing underlying causes, and disaggregate experience has varied not=
 only in size but also in direction of change.=20

. At the aggregate level, evidence of shifts in demand predates recent econ=
omic difficulties, including decoupling of traffic growth and economic grow=
th, reductions in propensity to learn to drive, changing land use and migra=
tion trends (which had previously been dominated by movements to areas enco=
uraging higher car use, and in the 2000s reversed), growth of internet use,=
 and decline in traffic levels in London and some other urban areas. These =
shifts have mostly been observed in the 1990s and early 2000s, including pe=
riods of strong economic growth.

. Over the same period, there have been changes in transport policy and tra=
vel conditions favouring public transport, walking and cycling in some plac=
es, changes in tax effects on prices (especially company car use), parking =
control, congestion levels, and fuel prices. It has often been the case tha=
t policy changes, though worthy, are deemed to have rather small effects on=
 travel demand, but there is a view that the cumulative effects may have be=
en larger than expected, the resulting car use levels representing a new eq=
uilibrium to the prevailing conditions.=A0=20

Taken together, these features would imply that per capita car use is influ=
enced by both economic and other structural factors, cannot be converted to=
 total traffic levels simply by multiplying by population, and demands seri=
ous re-examination. Although all these features are researchable, there is =
not currently a professional consensus backing either the official forecast=
s or any specific alternative, and a strong implication is that methods of =
policy formulation and project design should test robustness to a much wide=
r span of feasible futures than is reflected by traditional methods involvi=
ng rather narrow bands of statistical uncertainty.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------=
---------------


Professor Glenn Lyons
Associate Dean (Research and Knowledge Exchange) and Professor of Transport=
 and Society
Faculty of Environment and Technology, University of the West of England, F=
renchay Campus. BRISTOL BS16 1QY

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<html><body><div style=3D"color:#000; background-color:#fff; font-family:ar=
ial, helvetica, sans-serif;font-size:10pt"><div><span>This may be of intere=
st.</span></div><div style=3D"color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 13.3333px; fo=
nt-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif; background-color: transparent; font-=
style: normal;"><br><span></span></div><div style=3D"color: rgb(0, 0, 0); f=
ont-size: 13.3333px; font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif; background-co=
lor: transparent; font-style: normal;"><span>Best regards,</span></div><div=
 style=3D"color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 13.3333px; font-family: arial,hel=
vetica,sans-serif; background-color: transparent; font-style: normal;"><br>=
<span></span></div><div style=3D"color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-size: 13.3333px;=
 font-family: arial,helvetica,sans-serif; background-color: transparent; fo=
nt-style: normal;"><span>Simon.</span></div><br><div style=3D"font-family: =
arial, helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt;"> <div style=3D"font-family:=
 times
 new roman, new york, times, serif; font-size: 12pt;"> <div dir=3D"ltr"> --=
--- Forwarded Message -----<br>  <font face=3D"Arial" size=3D"2"> <b><span =
style=3D"font-weight:bold;">From:</span></b> Glenn Lyons &lt;Glenn.Lyons@UW=
E.AC.UK&gt;<br> <b><span style=3D"font-weight: bold;">To:</span></b> UTSG@J=
ISCMAIL.AC.UK <br> <b><span style=3D"font-weight: bold;">Sent:</span></b> M=
onday, 14 July 2014, 7:11<br> <b><span style=3D"font-weight: bold;">Subject=
:</span></b> [UTSG] Grow, peak or plateau - the outlook for car travel<br> =
</font> </div> <div class=3D"y_msg_container"><br>Dear colleagues,<br><br>A=
pologies for cross-posting.<br><br>Those of you interested in the evidence =
and debates surrounding 'peak car' may find the article 'Grow, peak or plat=
eau - the outlook for car travel' helpful. The article provides a detailed =
written account of a roundtable discussion on the topic which took place in=
 London on 20 May 2014. It is now available at: <a
 href=3D"http://eprints.uwe.ac.uk/23277/" target=3D"_blank">http://eprints.=
uwe.ac.uk/23277/</a><br><br>The summary is included below. Please let me kn=
ow if you are aware of other emerging examinations of the uncertainties fac=
ing future demand for car travel.<br><br>Best wishes,<br><br>Glenn<br><br>-=
---------------------------------------------------------------------------=
--------------<br><br>Summary<br><br>At the request of the New Zealand Mini=
stry of Transport, a meeting of UK researchers and commentators was convene=
d in London on 'peak car', a hypothesis that per capita car use is close to=
 its maximum level, and may stabilise or turn down. In both countries car t=
raffic forecasts have been overestimated, though current official thinking =
is that recent levelling off and decline in car use is a temporary result o=
f poor economic conditions, and that a resumption of strong growth is expec=
ted in future. Research findings include features that may show evidence
 of structural changes in the influence of economic and other drivers of ca=
r travel, and/or demand reaching natural saturation levels where further gr=
owth gives little benefit to travellers. The discussion reflected diverse e=
xperience and judgements, not all in agreement, and mostly related to UK ex=
perience, though influenced by a growing international research literature,=
 mostly empirical in focus, showing some important similarities in many oth=
er countries. Key features included:<br><br>. There have been strongly dive=
rgent trends in different locations (the main areas of decline being in cit=
ies, with growth continuing in many lower density areas) and among differen=
t groups (young men showing a decline, women an increase), with noticeable =
differences by journey purpose, length and mode (rail use has grown strongl=
y at the same time as car use has fallen). As a result the trends in nation=
al aggregate totals have been damped, not fully revealing underlying
 causes, and disaggregate experience has varied not only in size but also i=
n direction of change. <br><br>. At the aggregate level, evidence of shifts=
 in demand predates recent economic difficulties, including decoupling of t=
raffic growth and economic growth, reductions in propensity to learn to dri=
ve, changing land use and migration trends (which had previously been domin=
ated by movements to areas encouraging higher car use, and in the 2000s rev=
ersed), growth of internet use, and decline in traffic levels in London and=
 some other urban areas. These shifts have mostly been observed in the 1990=
s and early 2000s, including periods of strong economic growth.<br><br>. Ov=
er the same period, there have been changes in transport policy and travel =
conditions favouring public transport, walking and cycling in some places, =
changes in tax effects on prices (especially company car use), parking cont=
rol, congestion levels, and fuel prices. It has often been the case
 that policy changes, though worthy, are deemed to have rather small effect=
s on travel demand, but there is a view that the cumulative effects may hav=
e been larger than expected, the resulting car use levels representing a ne=
w equilibrium to the prevailing conditions.&nbsp; <br><br>Taken together, t=
hese features would imply that per capita car use is influenced by both eco=
nomic and other structural factors, cannot be converted to total traffic le=
vels simply by multiplying by population, and demands serious re-examinatio=
n. Although all these features are researchable, there is not currently a p=
rofessional consensus backing either the official forecasts or any specific=
 alternative, and a strong implication is that methods of policy formulatio=
n and project design should test robustness to a much wider span of feasibl=
e futures than is reflected by traditional methods involving rather narrow =
bands of statistical
 uncertainty.<br><br>------------------------------------------------------=
------------------------------------<br><br><br>Professor Glenn Lyons<br>As=
sociate Dean (Research and Knowledge Exchange) and Professor of Transport a=
nd Society<br>Faculty of Environment and Technology, University of the West=
 of England, Frenchay Campus. BRISTOL BS16 1QY<br></div> </div> </div>  </d=
iv></body></html>

<p></p>

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