Urban Ecology, a slideshow by Joel Gruver

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Urban ecology
2 posts by 2 authors


jgruv
Feb 19

Hello folks,


we wrapped up our discussion of Urban Ecology in my Soil and Water
Conservation class today.


IIRC, I shared an old version of this set of slides a few years ago.


Some of you might enjoy taking a look at the updated slides.


https://www.slideshare.net/jbgruver/urban-ecology-88346336
<https://www.slideshare.net/jbgruver/urban-ecology-88346336>
Urban ecology <https://www.slideshare.net/jbgruver/urban-ecology-88346336>
www.slideshare.net
This is an updated version of the Urban Ecology slides that I discussed
with my Soil and Water Conservation class at Western Illinois University
Urban ecology

   1. 1. ~75% farmland > 50% corn + soy Its time to think PINK!
   2. 2.
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   http://exploredia.com/world-population-2011/ Why should we care about
   cities?
   3. 3.
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   Urban areas depend on the productive and assimilative capacities of
   ecosystems far beyond their formal boundaries, i.e., land tens to hundreds
   of times larger than the area cities physically occupy are required to
   produce the energy, material goods, and nonmaterial services (including
   waste absorption) that sustain cities.
   4. 4.
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   Intense urban population growth has occurred over the past century. Urban
   areas occupy a small area (< 3% of land) yet their impact is large, with
   ~80% of global C emissions, ~80% of global wood use and ~60% of global
   residential water use occurring in cities. (Grimm et al., 2008) Land use
   change directly associated with building cities as well as supporting the
   demands of urban populations drives many types of environmental change.
   5. 5.
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   Some people have lived in cities for a long time but most people have NOT
   lived in cities. Do you recognize any of these famous ancient cities?
   Ayutthaya (Thailand)Machu Pichu (Peru) Anthens (Greece) Cahokia (USA)
   6. 6.
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   In 1800, only 3 percent of the global population lived in cities and only 1
   city had more than 1 million people. http://worldkit.org/population/
   7. 7.
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   http://worldkit.org/population/ By 1900, ~14 percent of the global
   population lived in cities and ~ 15 cities had > 1 million people.
   8. 8.
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   In 1950, 30 percent of the world's population lived in cities and the
   number of cities with over 1 million people had grown to 83.
   http://worldkit.org/population/
   9. 9.
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   In ~2008, for the first time ever, more people lived in cities than in
   rural areas and there were more than 400 cities with over 1 million people!
   10. 10.
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   (Grimm et al., 2008) Global & US trends in urban and rural populations
   11. 11.
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   Megacities in 2002
   12. 12.
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   There are currently ~ 30 megacities with more than 10 million people!
   13. 13.
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   http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Megacity
   14. 14.
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   WHICH ARE THE LARGEST? WHY PUBLISHED POPULATIONS FOR MAJOR WORLD URBAN
   AREAS VARY SO GREATLY RL Forstall, RP Greene and JB Pick Abstract: Lists of
   the world’s largest urban areas according to population size are
   surprisingly inconsistent in standard reference sources. They even disagree
   about which city is the world’s largest. In this paper we first review the
   differences found in the population reporting of the twenty largest world
   urban areas by several unofficial sources and by the United Nations. We
   then demonstrate that variations in the populations and rankings stem
   primarily from differences in concepts and definitions, not from bad census
   counts or lack of basic information about the individual urban areas.
   http://www.uic.edu/cuppa/cityfutures/papers/webpapers/cityfuturespapers/session3_4/3_4whicharethe.pdf
   15. 15.
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   metropolitan area = a large urban nucleus together with adjacent areas with
   a high degree of economic and social integration city proper = an
   incorporated administrative district with specific boundaries beyond which
   urban development has often far overflowed 3 terms used to define urban
   areas urban agglomeration = a central city (or cities) surrounded by
   continuous urban areas
   16. 16.
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   http://www.uic.edu/cuppa/cityfutures/papers/webpapers/cityfuturespapers/session3_4/3_4whicharethe.pdf
   17. 17.
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   http://www.nationsonline.org/oneworld/most_pop_cities_usa.htm
   18. 18.
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   Seattle 3) Chicago metro area 9.4 million 4) Philadelphia metro area 5.8
   million 1) NY City metro area 18.7 million 5) Dallas-Fort Worth metro area
   5.8 million 2) LA metro area 12.9 million Honolulu Puerto Rico but only 8 %
   lived in metro areas with populations > 1 million. 0 100 10,000 people per
   sq. mile
   http://i.bnet.com/blogs/usa-population-time-2006-joe-lertola-edit.jpg In
   2010, 81 % of Americans lived in cities…
   19. 19.
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   Today, ~75 % of the people in industrialized countries live in urban areas
   and ~45% of the people in developing countries live in urban areas. It is
   expected that world population will be 70 percent urban by 2050!
   http://www.prb.org/Educators/TeachersGuides/HumanPopulation/Urbanization.aspx
   20. 20.
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   More than 95% of the net increase in the global population during the 21st
   century is projected to occur in cities in developing countries
   http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/urban_population_status_and_trends
   21. 21.
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   Almost 40 percent of city dwellers in developing countries (~ 1 billion
   people) live in slums
   22. 22.
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   Variation in urban population density
   23. 23.
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   If *ALL* the people on planet Earth lived at the density of one city, how
   large would that city be?http://marcgawley.com/
   24. 24.
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   http://www.nomadicminds.org/blogs/2010/06 Pollen analysis has now
   established that Easter Island was almost totally forested until 1200 CE.
   The tree pollen disappeared from the record by 1650, and the statues
   stopped being made around that time Almost 900 of these giant stone
   sculptures were carved and transported - some weighing over 80 tons
   25. 25.
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   http://www.unep.org/yearbook/2004/010b.htm Highly populated areas
   (yellow and red) consume hundreds to thousands of times their local NPP.
   Source: Imhoff and others 2004 Globally about 40% of NPP is consumed by
   people!!! What is NPP?
   26. 26.
   <https://image.slidesharecdn.com/urbanecology18slideshare-180220033139/95/urban-ecology-26-638.jpg?cb=1519097575>
   Recently, however, ecologists have begun collaborating with other
   scientists, planners, and engineers to understand and even redesign urban
   ecosystems. (Grimm et al., 2008) During the 20th century, most ecologists
   ignored urban areas with the result that ecological knowledge contributed
   little to solving urban environmental problems.
   27. 27.
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   Serious ecological scientists are now studying cities!
   28. 28.
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   As Phoenix urbanized, native Sonoran desert ecosystems were replaced by an
   “urban oasis” with both lush, watered lawns and managed desert-like
   landscapes. Scientists are investigating the household decision-making,
   perceptions, and priorities that result in more ecological vs. less
   ecological residential landscapes. Which house/landscape would you choose?
   29. 29.
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   Throughout history, most cities have sprung up along rivers, and other
   water bodies because of the opportunities created by the available water.
   Within cities, water provides invaluable services (e.g., residential use,
   industrial use, transportation, sanitation and recreation but is also
   linked to serious challenges (flooding, tsunamis, subsidence, mosquito
   vectored disease). The highly modified streams, rivers, flood channels,
   canals and other hydrosystems in urban areas provide few of the ecosystem
   services associated with natural aquatic systems (e.g., filtering, flood
   control, temperature moderation, habitat…)
   30. 30.
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   Low flow events also contribute to water pollution when automotive
   chemicals, pet wastes, lawn care chemicals, persistent organic pollutants
   (e.g., flame retardants) wash off urban surfaces Stormwater is conveyed
   separately from sewage in cities with relatively new infrastructure but
   older European and American cities have combined sewer and stormwater
   systems resulting in serious pollution events every time large rainfall
   events occur
   31. 31.
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   How carefully do home owners apply fertilizers and pesticides? Dr. Bernards
   would be proud of how carefully I calibrated this spreader!
   32. 32.
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   30-40 million acres of lawn!
   33. 33.
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   Residential lawns occupy > 20 million acres in the US. US lawn care
   industry annual revenue exceeds $40 billion. > $ 5 billion is spent on
   fertilizer for U.S. lawns. A typical power lawnmower pollutes as much in
   one hour as driving an automobile for 20 miles. ~60 thousand severe
   accidents result from lawnmower use in the US each year, as well as
   significant damage to human hearing. ~ 70 million pounds of pesticides are
   applied to lawns each year Some stats to consider
   34. 34.
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   Benefits of Turfgrass • Erosion Control • Infiltration of water • Carbon
   sequestration • Noise reduction • Cooling • Oxygen production
   35. 35.
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   Turf is a great surface for this activity!
   36. 36.
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   Fun at the Farm!
   37. 37.
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   Turf may be a good surface for this land use but what is the environmental
   cost?
   38. 38.
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   Crocodile tourism might be a better land use 
   39. 39.
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   What is the function of these lawns? Do the benefits exceed the costs?
   40. 40.
   <https://image.slidesharecdn.com/urbanecology18slideshare-180220033139/95/urban-ecology-40-638.jpg?cb=1519097575>
   New mowers produce much less pollution than old mowers!
   41. 41.
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   Midwest states many spend $$$ mowing thousands of acres of roadside turf.
   42. 42.
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   Scenic beauty Reduced mowing costs Wildlife/pollinator habitat Increased
   alertness of drivers Roadside plantings of prairie vegetation have many
   benefits!
   43. 43.
   <https://image.slidesharecdn.com/urbanecology18slideshare-180220033139/95/urban-ecology-43-638.jpg?cb=1519097575>
   INTRODUCTION The Illinois Department of Transportation (IDOT) has been
   interested in mapping roadside prairie since 1992. A formal request was
   made in 1998 by Rich Nowack to map prairie while traveling to other IDOT
   project areas, and as time allowed. IDOT’s justification for this project
   was to preserve prairie habitat, and limit accidental mowing and herbicide
   spraying of native prairie remnants. In 2000, IDOT made this project a
   priority. In the 2001 field season, a more detailed and systematic approach
   was taken to survey prairies in Illinois. This report and final GIS map is
   the result of the information gathered during the 2003 field season in IDOT
   District 4. Inventory of Roadside Prairies Illinois Department of
   Transportation District 4 Illinois Natural History Survey Center for
   Biodiversity Technical Report (4) 2004
   44. 44.
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   Large cities are the most complex systems that humanity has ever created
   and represent both incredible efficiencies and failures LA’s Pregerson
   Interchange contains 5 levels and 9 miles of cloverleaf loops.
   45. 45.
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   The CDC reports that more than 500,000 American children have significant
   levels of lead in their bodies 18 cities in Pennsylvania and 11 in New
   Jersey may have an even higher share of children with dangerously elevated
   levels of lead than does Flint, MI.
   46. 46.
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   Where is the lead coming from?
   47. 47.
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   The health department provided the city with 149 Galesburg addresses where
   the worst cases of lead occurred from 1992 to 2015. The city cross-indexed
   those addresses with its own database of Galesburg homes to determine that
   only 60 of those 149 homes had private lead water service lines. This
   evidence, along with what the health department’s inspectors found in
   homes, pointed to lead paint fragments and dust in homes as a larger
   contributor to the problem than lead water service lines.
   48. 48.
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   Poor planning and governance = many problems Crime Congestion Air pollution
   Water pollution Poverty Corruption Inequity
   49. 49.
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   Michigan Central Station in Detroit A symbol of urban blight
   50. 50.
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   The Moroun family has spent more than $8 million replacing thousands of
   windows, restoring electricity and installing a freight elevator.
   51. 51.
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   Cities with twice as many people consume LESS than twice as many resources
   52. 52.
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   Farms, factories, large animals and cities tend to benefit from Economies
   of Scale
   53. 53.
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   Are large farms more efficient than small farms? Match between management
   opportunities and management skill is what matters most
   54. 54.
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   University of Minnesota data from 2016 showed the top 20% of farmers had an
   average net farm income of $197,000, while the bottom 20% had an average
   loss of $61,000. Drilling through the numbers, Robert Craven from the
   Center for Farm Financial Management at the University of Minnesota said
   the difference between the top 20% and bottom 20% of producers was not so
   much yield or cash price or even owned versus rented acres. The big
   difference came in expenses and hedging gains. Seed, fertilizer, chemicals
   and rent expenses for corn production in southern Minnesota differed from
   an average of $665 per acre for the top 20% producers to $863 per acre for
   the bottom 20% group -- a difference of about $200 per acre… and hedging
   gains in 2016 were $15,207 for the top group versus a loss of $7,176 for
   the bottom group. “It wasn't just the big guys making money," noted Craven.
   "When we looked at number of acres farmed, there wasn't much difference
   between the 1,000- to 1,500-acre producer and the 2,000- to 5,000-acre
   farmer in terms of net return. Farm size did not determine profitability.
   Cutting expenses and better marketing was a much bigger factor" Craven
   reported.
   55. 55.
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   Elephants weigh ~10,000 times more than guinea pigs but only consume ~ 1000
   times as many calories WHY? Slow metabolism High metabolism
   56. 56.
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   Some cities are much more efficient than others!
   57. 57.
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   A key concept within the discipline of urban ecology is urban metabolism
   which compares the flows of energy and materials in and out of cities and
   the transformation and accumulation of energy and materials within cities
   to biological metabolism. Some scientists debate the appropriateness of the
   metabolism analogy but interest in urban metabolism has led to informative
   analysis of long-term trends in the flow of energy, paper, plastics, metals
   and food stuffs in, out and within cities. What is urban metabolism?
   58. 58.
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   Analysis of Toronto The metabolism of some cities has been intensively
   analyzed
   59. 59.
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   After studying Australian ant colonies, mathematicians think ants might
   have something to teach us about network design, and how we evaluate
   priorities in the placement of schools, post offices and power plants, and
   the expansion of transportation systems. Models of ant colony growth, they
   believe, can be used to improve the design of human systems.
   60. 60.
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   Many factors influence the metabolism of cities Sprawled, low-density
   cities have higher per capita transportation energy requirements than
   compact cities. Cities with interior continental climates expend more
   energy on winter heating and summer cooling than those with more temperate
   climates. Application of technology, appropriate use of vegetation and the
   costs of energy influence energy consumption. Public policies (e.g.,
   building codes and recycling programs) and social attitudes impact material
   and energy flows. Lastly, the age of a city, the design of its
   infrastructure, and its stage of industrial development impact its urban
   metabolism.
   61. 61.
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   (Gigajoules/year/person) 1 gallon of gasoline per day Do you consume > 1
   gallon of gasoline per day? Adapted from (Newman and Kenworthy, 1991)
   62. 62.
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   The City Solution Why cities are the best cure for our planet's growing
   pains December 2011
   63. 63.
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   Large cities are concentrations of human ingenuity and generally require
   far fewer resources on a per capita basis than small towns or rural areas.
   64. 64.
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   “Possibly the most exciting book on ecology or environmentalism to be
   published in years, David Owen's Green Metropolis: Why Living Smaller,
   Living Closer, and Driving Less Are the Keys to Sustainability challenges
   the conventional wisdom of the environmental movement and uses New York
   City (not Portland or rural Vermont) as a model of true sustainability.
   Owen's seemingly counter-intuitive argument is supported by the data: New
   Yorkers have the lowest per capita energy consumption and smallest per
   capita carbon footprint of anyone in the United States. The key to this
   isn't that New Yorkers are morally superior or ideologically predisposed to
   environmentalism, but simply the structure of the city: “Manhattan's
   density is approximately 67,000 people per square mile, or more than eight
   hundred times that of the nation as a whole and roughly thirty times that
   of Los Angeles.” http://nefac.net/greenmetro
   65. 65.
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   Perhaps most important, people in dense cities drive less. Their
   destinations are close enough to walk to, and enough people are going to
   the same places to make public transit practical. City dwellers tread more
   lightly in many ways, David Owen explains in Green Metropolis. Their roads,
   sewers, and power lines are shorter and so use fewer resources. Their
   apartments take less energy to heat, cool, and light than do houses.
   66. 66.
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   New Delhi car ban yields trove of pollution data Scramble by researchers to
   monitor driving restrictions in Indian capital pays off. New Delhi, India
   may be the world’s most polluted city, but it’s making an effort to
   relinquish that title. With pollution from particulate matter at
   potentially lethal levels early last December, city officials took a
   drastic step: they announced that they would temporarily restrict the use
   of private vehicles by allowing owners to drive only on alternate days,
   based on the their number plates #s. The initial results of that 15-day
   trial, which began on 1 January, are now in. Although traffic actually
   increased in the first week of the ban, the levels of PM2.5 — particulate
   matter measuring less than 2.5 microns across — fell by roughly 10%. That
   is a victory not just for New Delhi officials, but also for the scientists
   who sprang into action to collect the data necessary to determine whether
   the test had achieved its goal.
   67. 67.
   <https://image.slidesharecdn.com/urbanecology18slideshare-180220033139/95/urban-ecology-67-638.jpg?cb=1519097575>
   In December 2015, daily levels of noxious PM2.5 in New Dehli ranged from
   400–600 µg/m3 – much higher than the Indian legal standard of 60 µg/m3
   (which itself is more than double the 25 µg/m3 target threshold set by the
   World Health Organization). Scientists predict that PM2.5 particles cause
   more than 600,000 premature deaths annually in India How serious is air
   pollution in New Dehli?
   68. 68.
   <https://image.slidesharecdn.com/urbanecology18slideshare-180220033139/95/urban-ecology-68-638.jpg?cb=1519097575>
   The high cost of suburban living is heavily subsidized by the rest of the
   population in the form of public funds spent on road construction,
   extension of utility lines, school buses and emergency services for new
   developments. If the true cost of sprawl were borne by developers and
   suburban home-buyers, in the form of increased housing prices, higher
   property taxes and infrastructure recovery costs (e.g., higher utility
   bills and tolls on roads primarily used by commuters) suburbs would be much
   more expensive places to live.
   69. 69.
   <https://image.slidesharecdn.com/urbanecology18slideshare-180220033139/95/urban-ecology-69-638.jpg?cb=1519097575>
   1.7 million people 3.6 million people 2.9 million people100 people ???
   million people What do you know about Chicago?
   70. 70.
   <https://image.slidesharecdn.com/urbanecology18slideshare-180220033139/95/urban-ecology-70-638.jpg?cb=1519097575>
   In the late 19th century, Chicago was a commercial colossus, a city growing
   more quickly than New York, flooded with industrial money but ravaged by
   great income disparities, lax health standards, and labor upheavals. For
   Chicago to become the city it could be, civic leaders recognized the need
   for urban planning, both to solve Chicago's existing problems and to
   prepare it for a prosperous future. The result was architect Daniel
   Burnham's 1909 plan for Chicago, a model of urban planning, aesthetic
   sophistication, and technical achievement.
   71. 71.
   <https://image.slidesharecdn.com/urbanecology18slideshare-180220033139/95/urban-ecology-71-638.jpg?cb=1519097575>
   Congress Parkway Arterial street widening Civic Center Chicago River
   straightening Roosevelt Road Grant Park Northerly Island New diagonal
   avenues Consolidated railroad stations Two-level riverfront drives Make no
   little plans. They have no magic to stir men’s blood and probably
   themselves will not be realized. Make big plans; aim high in hope and work,
   remembering that a noble, logical diagram once recorded will never die. D.
   Burnham
   72. 72.
   <https://image.slidesharecdn.com/urbanecology18slideshare-180220033139/95/urban-ecology-72-638.jpg?cb=1519097575>
   Chicago has a long history of big plans!
   73. 73.
   <https://image.slidesharecdn.com/urbanecology18slideshare-180220033139/95/urban-ecology-73-638.jpg?cb=1519097575>
   What happens to storm water in Chicago?
   74. 74.
   <https://image.slidesharecdn.com/urbanecology18slideshare-180220033139/95/urban-ecology-74-638.jpg?cb=1519097575>
   A very grand solution
   75. 75.
   <https://image.slidesharecdn.com/urbanecology18slideshare-180220033139/95/urban-ecology-75-638.jpg?cb=1519097575>
   The Thornton Reservoir is the final stage of the TARP tunnel project's
   Calumet branch. When the former limestone quarry fills, it will add 7.9
   billion more gallons of capacity to Chicago’s stormwater runoff system.
   76. 76.
   <https://image.slidesharecdn.com/urbanecology18slideshare-180220033139/95/urban-ecology-76-638.jpg?cb=1519097575>
   Thorton Reservoir ~ 8 billion gallons!
   77. 77.
   <https://image.slidesharecdn.com/urbanecology18slideshare-180220033139/95/urban-ecology-77-638.jpg?cb=1519097575>
   “If you look around at major cities in the country, Chicago had so much
   foresight – and as a result is spending far less, and benefiting so much
   more than other cities,” says David St. Pierre, executive director of the
   Metropolitan Water Reclamation District in regard to efforts to keep storms
   from flooding cities.
   78. 78.
   <https://image.slidesharecdn.com/urbanecology18slideshare-180220033139/95/urban-ecology-78-638.jpg?cb=1519097575>
    improving stormwater management by reducing runoff and improving water
   quality  reducing heating and cooling costs  increasing longevity of
   roofing membranes  reducing noise and air pollution  increasing urban
   biodiversity  providing space for urban agriculture  providing a more
   aesthetically pleasing and healthy environment to work and live
   79. 79.
   <https://image.slidesharecdn.com/urbanecology18slideshare-180220033139/95/urban-ecology-79-638.jpg?cb=1519097575>
   Chicago City Hall
   80. 80.
   <https://image.slidesharecdn.com/urbanecology18slideshare-180220033139/95/urban-ecology-80-638.jpg?cb=1519097575>
   LEED, or Leadership in Energy & Environmental Design, is a green building
   certification program that recognizes best-in-class building strategies and
   practices. To receive LEED certification, building projects satisfy
   prerequisites and earn points to achieve different levels of certification.
   81. 81.
   <https://image.slidesharecdn.com/urbanecology18slideshare-180220033139/95/urban-ecology-81-638.jpg?cb=1519097575>
   LEED v4 is bolder, more specialized, and designed for an improved user
   experience. There are 4 levels of certification
   82. 82.
   <https://image.slidesharecdn.com/urbanecology18slideshare-180220033139/95/urban-ecology-82-638.jpg?cb=1519097575>
   The WIU Multicultural Center is built to LEED 2.2 Silver criteria!
   83. 83.
   <https://image.slidesharecdn.com/urbanecology18slideshare-180220033139/95/urban-ecology-83-638.jpg?cb=1519097575>
   If what you value most is nature, cities look like concentrated piles of
   damage—until you consider the alternative, which is spreading the damage.
   http://www.airphotona.com/image.asp?imageid=15204
   84. 84.
   <https://image.slidesharecdn.com/urbanecology18slideshare-180220033139/95/urban-ecology-84-638.jpg?cb=1519097575>
   Cities allow more than half of humanity to live on <3% of the earth’s
   arable land, leaving more space for nature.
   http://media.treehugger.com/assets/images/2012/03/bishan-park-singapore-aerial-vew.jpg.492x0_q85_crop-smart.jpg
   85. 85.
   <https://image.slidesharecdn.com/urbanecology18slideshare-180220033139/95/urban-ecology-85-638.jpg?cb=1519097575>
   Positive human experiences with non-native, global “homogenizers”, such as
   pigeons, may be essential for convincing urbanites of the importance of
   conserving global biodiversity. With an ever-increasing fraction of humans
   living in cities, encounters with urban nature have supplanted experiences
   with natural biodiversity for many people.
   86. 86.
   <https://image.slidesharecdn.com/urbanecology18slideshare-180220033139/95/urban-ecology-86-638.jpg?cb=1519097575>
   Most Americans don’t like cities. In an annual Gallup poll, from 1966 to
   the present day, the number of Americans who have reported a preference for
   city living has never been higher than 20 percent. (The other options
   Gallup provides are small town, farm or suburb.) Steven Conn’s new book,
   Americans Against the City: Anti- Urbanism in the Twentieth Century
   analyzes the causes and effects of Americans’ anti-city sentiment. Despite
   all their benefits


Joel


Joel Gruver

Associate Professor of Soil Science

School of Agriculture

Western Illinois University



knorth
Feb 20
Joel,

Your urban ecology slides contain a lot of useful information. However,
they lack proper integration into a whole systems analysis. The urban
systems and their hinterlands are both ecosystems and political economies,
and cannot be well understood without that integration. For example, cities
are flagship cores, the embodiment of whole civilizations, whole ways of
living that exploit natural resources and people extremely unsustainably
since the advent of agriculture. The poverty of a large percentage of urban
dwellers is the result of various types of enclosure, forcing peasant
populations into cities and factories.

Secondly, most of the urban green design in the slides is too little, too
late. Moreover, most urban ecologists and other 'new urbanists' use loose
definitions of efficiency and cost measurement typical of an age of over
two centuries of rampant use of resources due to cheap energy (see my paper
below). That age is over.


​
For example,  the value of compactness in communities, promoted by urban
designers, is "green" only at very small scale. Europe is full of such
compact small towns and agrarian villages, the legacy of a pre-industrial
age (again, see my paper, below). Colonization and resource exploitation in
the US rarely followed the European pattern, whose historical remnants are
better models for the future.

The real problem, which most people avoid, is overpopulation and its per
capita consumption patterns in the industrial countries. That cities of any
size are unsustainable is revealed by fully burdened cost accounting
pioneered by HT Odum, Charles Hall and other systems ecologists, who count
emergy (that's with an 'M') costs, for example.

Wood, the primary stored energy source before the advent of fossil fuels,
was already scarce in Europe in 1600, driving colonization of the New
World. Here is years of wood that current US state populations would have
without fossil fuels. The legend shows fractions of years, so it actually
comes down down to a few days in most states, at current population levels.


​

Also, an integrated approach also needs a historical overview that shows
patterns of urban civilization rise and fall.


In the future, human communities of any type will have to make do with NPP
as a resource base, like all other species, and like natural ecosystems.
This will shrink human population drastically, ending most city life. Here
are some scenarios based on those ecological imperatives.

Cities and Suburbs in the Energy Descent: Thinking in Scenarios
<http://karlnorth.com/?p=553>

-- 
Karl North -  http://karlnorth.com/
"Pueblo que canta no morira" - Cuban saying
"They only call it class warfare when we fight back" - Anon.
"My father rode a camel. I drive a car. My son flies a jet-plane. His son
will ride a camel."
 —Saudi saying


-- 
Lawrence F. London, Jr.
[email protected]
https://sites.google.com/site/avantgeared

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