[rad-green] How Black Swans Are Shaping Planet Panic -- Pepe Escobar
"Sid Shniad" (via rad-green Mailing List) <[email protected]> Mon, 16 Mar 2020 19:01:25 -0700
| Newsgroups | gmane.politics.communism.environmental |
|---|---|
| Message-ID | <CACKppcwbryH3ekrChkJqnTkX6KC4xd7kjEhiRj8X+WaUYavVGw@mail.gmail.com> |
This is a multi-part message in MIME format... ------------=_1584410513-7785-133701 Content-Type: multipart/alternative; boundary="000000000000d22fcd05a1035030" --000000000000d22fcd05a1035030 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable *https://consortiumnews.com/2020/03/10/pepe-escobar-how-black-swans-are-sha= ping-planet-panic/ <https://consortiumnews.com/2020/03/10/pepe-escobar-how-black-swans-are-sha= ping-planet-panic/>Consortium News March 10, 2020How Black Swans Are Shaping Planet Panic* *It was quite the game-changing plot twist last Friday in Vienna when relatively polite discussions turned into a de facto OPEC+ meltdown.* *OPEC headquarters in Vienna. (Vincent Eisfeld, CC BY-SA 4.0, Wikimedia Commons)* *By Pepe Escobar <https://consortiumnews.com/tag/pepe-escobar/>* *Special to Consortium News* *Is the planet under the spell of a range of Black Swans =E2=80=93 a Wall S= treet meltdown caused by an alleged oil war between Russia and the House of Saud, plus the uncontrolled spread of Covid-19 =E2=80=93 leading to an all-out =E2=80=9Ccross-asset pandemonium <https://heisenbergreport.com/2020/03/09/cross-asset-pandemonium-market-cra= sh-triggers-circuit-breakers-on-black-monday-for-wall-street/>,=E2=80=9D as billed by Nomura, the Japanese holding company? * Or, as German analyst Peter Spengler suggests, whatever =E2=80=9Cthe averte= d climax in the Strait of Hormuz had not brought about so far, might now come through =E2=80=98market forces=E2=80=99=E2=80=9D? Let=E2=80=99s start with what really happened after five hours of relativel= y polite discussions last Friday in Vienna. What turned into a de facto OPEC+ meltdown was quite the game-changing plot twist. OPEC+ includes Russia, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan. Essentially, after enduring years of OPEC price-fixing =E2=80=93 the result of relentless U.S. pressure over Saudi Arabia =E2=80=93 while patiently rebuilding its foreign exchange reserves*, *Moscow saw the perfect window of opportunity to strike, targeting the U.S. shale industry. Shares of some of these U.S. producers plunged as much as 50 percent on =E2=80=9CBlack Monday.=E2=80=9D They simply cannot survive with a barrel of= oil in the $30s =E2=80=93 and that=E2=80=99s where this is going. After all, these companie= s are drowning in debt. A $30 barrel of oil has to be seen as a precious gift/stimulus package for a global economy in turmoil =E2=80=93 especially from the point of view of = oil importers and consumers. This is what Russia made possible. And the stimulus may last for a while. Russia=E2=80=99s National Wealth Fun= d has made it clear it has enough reserves (over $150 billion) to cover a budget deficit from six to 10 years =E2=80=93 even with oil at $25 a barrel. Goldm= an Sachs has already gamed a possible Brent crude at $20 a barrel. As Persian Gulf traders stress, the key to what is perceived in the U*.*S *. *as an =E2=80=9Coil war=E2=80=9D between Moscow and Riyadh is mostly abo= ut derivatives. Essentially, banks won=E2=80=99t be able to pay those speculators who hold derivative insurance against a steep decline in the price of oil. Added stress comes from traders panicking with Covid-19 spreading across nations that are visibly unprepared to deal with it. *Watch the Russian Game* Moscow must have gamed beforehand that Russian stocks traded in London *=E2= =80=94 *such as Gazprom, Rosneft, Novatek and Gazprom Neft *=E2=80=94 *would collapse. A= ccording to Lukoil=E2=80=99s co-owner Leonid Fedun, Russia may lose up to $150 milli= on a day from now on. The question is for how long this will be acceptable. Still, from the beginning Rosneft=E2=80=99s position was that for Russia, t= he deal with OPEC+was =E2=80=9Cmeaningless=E2=80=9D and only =E2=80=9Ccleared the w= ay=E2=80=9D for American shale oil. The consensus among Russian energy giants was that the current market setup *=E2=80=94 *massive =E2=80=9Cnegative oil demand*,*=E2=80=9D positive =E2= =80=9Csupply shock*,*=E2=80=9D and no swing producer *=E2=80=94 *inevitably had to crash the price of oil. They w= ere watching, helplessly, as the U*.*S*. *was already selling oil for a lower price than OPEC. Moscow=E2=80=99s move against the U*.*S*. *fracking industry was payback fo= r the Trump administration messing with Nord Stream 2 <https://www.nord-stream2.com/>. The inevitable, steep devaluation of the ruble <https://www.oreanda.ru/en/finansy/fitch-analyst-reports-threatening-devalu= ation-in-russia-due-to-oil-prices/article1307307/> was gamed *=E2=80=94 *also considering the ruble was already low anyway. Still, what happened post-Vienna essentially has little to do with a Russia-Saudi trade war. The Russian Energy Ministry is phlegmatic <https://tass.com/economy/1128037>: move on, nothing to see here. Riyadh, significantly, has been emitting signs the OPEC+ deal may be back in the cards in the near future. A feasible scenario is that this sort of shock therapy will go on until 2022, and then Russia and OPEC will be back to the table to work out a new deal. There are no definitive numbers, but the oil market accounts for less than 10 percent of Russia=E2=80=99s GDP (it used to be 16 percent in 2012). Iran= =E2=80=99s oil exports in 2019 plunged by a whopping 70 percent*, *and still Tehran was able to adapt. Yet oil accounts for over 50 percent of Saudi GDP. Riyadh needs oil at no less than $85 a barrel to pay its bills. The 2020 budget, with crude priced at $62-63 a barrel, still has a $50 billion deficit. Aramco says they will be offering no less than 300,000 barrels of oil a day more than their =E2=80=9Cmaximum sustained capacity=E2=80=9D starting April= 1. They say they will be able to produce a whopping 12.3 million barrels a day. Persian Gulf traders say openly this is unsustainable. It is. But the House of Saud, in desperation, will be digging into their strategic reserves to dump as much crude as possible as soon as possible =E2=80=94 and keep the p= rice war full tilt. The (oily) irony is that the top price war victims are an industry belonging to the American protector. Saudi-occupied Arabia is a mess. *The Wall Street Journal* reported <https://eu.freep.com/story/news/world/2020/03/07/saudi-royal-family-member= s-arrested-alleged-plot-oust-king/4985914002/> Friday that one of the king=E2=80=99s brothers, Prince Ahmed bin Abdulaziz al Saud= , and a nephew, Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, two powerful Saudis, were arrested and charged with treason for allegedly plotting against King Salman and his son, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MbS). Every grain of sand in the Nefud desert knows Jared of Arabia Kushner=E2=80= =99s whatsapp pal MbS has been de facto ruler for the past five years, but the timing of his new purge in Riyadh speaks volumes. The CIA is fuming: Nayef was and remains Langley=E2=80=99s top asset. The f= act that Saudi regime spin denounced =E2=80=9CAmericans=E2=80=9D as partners in a po= ssible coup against MBS should be read as =E2=80=9CCIA*.*=E2=80=9D It=E2=80=99s just a = matter of time before the U*.*S*. *Deep State, in conjunction with disgruntled National Guard elements, comes for MbS=E2=80=99s head *=E2=80=94 *even as he articulates t= aking over total power <https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/exclusive-saudi-crown-prince-plans-beco= me-king-novembers-g20-summit> before the G-20 summit in Riyadh next November. *Black Hawk Down?* So what happens next? Amid a tsunami of scenarios, from New York to all points Asia, the most optimistic rule is that China is about to win the =E2=80=9Cpeople=E2=80=99s war=E2=80=9D against Covid-19*, *and the latest f= igures confirm it. In this case global oil demand may increase by at least 480,000 barrels a day. Well, that=E2=80=99s way more complicated. The game now points to a confluence of Wall Street in panic; Covid-19 mass hysteria; lingering, myriad aftershocks of President Donald Trump=E2=80=99s= global trade mess; the U*.*S*. *election circus; and political instability in Europe. These interlocked crises do spell Perfect Storm. Yet the market angle is easily explained as perhaps the beginning of the end of the Fed pumping tens of trillions of U*.*S*. *dollars into the economy through QEs and repos since 2008. Call it the calling of the central bankers=E2=80=99 b= luff. A case can be made that the current financial panic will only subsidize when the ultimate Black Swan =E2=80=93 Covid-19 =E2=80=93 is contained. Bor= rowing from the famous Hollywood adage =E2=80=94 =E2=80=9Cno one knows anything=E2=80=9D = =E2=80=94 all bets are off. Amid thick fog, and discounting the usual amount of disinformation, a Rabobank analyst, among others, came up with plausible four Covid-19 scenarios. He now reckons it=E2=80=99s getting =E2=80=9Cugly=E2=80=9D <https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/its-getting-ugly-what-can-we-really-do-a= bout-covid-19> and the fourth scenario *=E2=80=94 *the =E2=80=9Cunthinkable=E2=80=9D *=E2=80= =94 *is not far-fetched anymore. This implies a global economic crisis of, yes, unthinkable magnitude. To a great extent it will all depend on how fast China =E2=80=93 the inesca= pable crucial link in the global just-in-time supply chain =E2=80=94 gets back to= a new normal, offsetting interminable weeks of serial lockdowns. Despised, discriminated, demonized 24/7 by the =E2=80=9Csystem leader,=E2= =80=9D China has gone full Nietzsche =E2=80=93 about to prove that =E2=80=9Cwhatever does no= t kill you makes you stronger=E2=80=9D when it comes to a =E2=80=9Cpeople=E2=80=99s war=E2= =80=9D against Covid-19. On the U.S. front, there=E2=80=99s scant hope that the gleaming Black =E2=80=9Chel= icopter money=E2=80=9D Hawk will crash down for good. The ultimate Black Swan will have the last word. *Pepe Escobar, a veteran Brazilian journalist, is the correspondent-at-large for Hong Kong-based **Asia Times* <http://www.atimes.com/>*.** His latest book is **=E2=80=9C**2030* <https://www.amazon.com/2030-Letter-Grandson-Pepe-Escobar-ebook/dp/B0186FC9= 9U/ref=3Dsr_1_1?ie=3DUTF8&qid=3D1535385000&sr=3D8-1&keywords=3D2030+Pepe+Es= cobar> *.=E2=80=9D** Follow him on **Facebook* <https://www.facebook.com/pepe.escobar.77377>*.* --=20 ---=20 You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups "= Sid-l" group. To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an e= mail to [email protected]. To view this discussion on the web visit https://groups.google.com/d/msgid/= sid-l/CACKppcwbryH3ekrChkJqnTkX6KC4xd7kjEhiRj8X%2BWaUYavVGw%40mail.gmail.co= m. --000000000000d22fcd05a1035030 Content-Type: text/html; charset="UTF-8" Content-Transfer-Encoding: quoted-printable <div dir=3D"ltr"><div class=3D"gmail_default" style=3D"font-size:small"><fo= nt face=3D"georgia, serif"><b><a href=3D"https://consortiumnews.com/2020/03= /10/pepe-escobar-how-black-swans-are-shaping-planet-panic/" target=3D"_blan= k">https://consortiumnews.com/2020/03/10/pepe-escobar-how-black-swans-are-s= haping-planet-panic/</a><br><br><font size=3D"4">Consortium News=C2=A0 =C2= =A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 =C2=A0 March 10, 2020<= /font><br><br><font size=3D"6">How Black Swans Are Shaping Planet Panic<br>= </font><font size=3D"4"><br></font></b></font><div><font face=3D"georgia, s= erif"><b><font size=3D"4">It was quite the game-changing plot twist last Fr= iday in Vienna when relatively polite discussions turned into a de facto </= font>OPEC+<font size=3D"4"> meltdown.</font></b></font></div><div><font fac= e=3D"georgia, serif"><b><font size=3D"4"><br></font></b></font></div><div><= div><font face=3D"georgia, serif"><b><img src=3D"https://consortiumnews.com= /wp-content/uploads/2020/03/OPEC_Headquarter_Vienna-scaled.jpg" alt=3D"" wi= dth=3D"472" height=3D"315" style=3D"color:rgb(0,0,0);box-sizing:border-box;= border:0px none;margin:0px;padding:0px;display:inline-block"></b></font></d= iv><p id=3D"m_-3385254570846944929m_8877163152953669543m_-55682848485608614= 77gmail-caption-attachment-44578" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;font-size:= 11.2px;margin:0px;padding:0px 4px 5px"><span style=3D"box-sizing:border-box= ;font-size:12pt"><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif"><b>OPEC he= adquarters in Vienna.<span style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;font-size:10pt">= =C2=A0(Vincent Eisfeld, CC BY-SA 4.0, Wikimedia Commons)</span></b></font><= /span></p><div class=3D"gmail_default"><div style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;= width:860px;padding:0px;border:0px;overflow:hidden"><p style=3D"font-size:1= 4px;box-sizing:border-box;text-align:justify"></p><div><font face=3D"georgi= a, serif"><b><span style=3D"font-size:14pt;color:rgb(0,0,0);box-sizing:bord= er-box">By=C2=A0</span><span style=3D"font-size:14pt;color:rgb(0,0,0);box-s= izing:border-box"><a href=3D"https://consortiumnews.com/tag/pepe-escobar/" = style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border-bottom:1px dotted;text-decoration-lin= e:none" target=3D"_blank"><span style=3D"box-sizing:border-box">Pepe Escoba= r</span></a></span></b></font></div><div><em style=3D"font-size:14pt;color:= rgb(0,0,0);box-sizing:border-box"><font face=3D"georgia, serif"><b>Special = to Consortium News</b></font></em></div></div></div></div></div><div class= =3D"gmail_default" style=3D"font-size:small"><font face=3D"georgia, serif">= <br></font></div><div class=3D"gmail_default" style=3D"font-size:small"><di= v><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif"><strong style=3D"box-sizi= ng:border-box"><span style=3D"font-weight:normal;box-sizing:border-box;font= -size:18pt"><strong style=3D"box-sizing:border-box">I</strong></span><span = style=3D"font-size:14pt;font-weight:normal">s the planet under the spell of= a range of Black Swans =E2=80=93 a Wall Street meltdown caused by an alleg= ed oil war between Russia and the House of Saud, plus the uncontrolled spre= ad of Covid-19 =E2=80=93 leading to an all-out</span><span style=3D"font-si= ze:14pt;font-weight:normal">=C2=A0</span><span style=3D"font-size:14pt;font= -weight:normal;box-sizing:border-box"><a href=3D"https://heisenbergreport.c= om/2020/03/09/cross-asset-pandemonium-market-crash-triggers-circuit-breaker= s-on-black-monday-for-wall-street/" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border-b= ottom:1px dotted;text-decoration-line:none" target=3D"_blank">=E2=80=9Ccros= s-asset pandemonium</a>,=E2=80=9D</span><span style=3D"font-size:14pt;font-= weight:normal">=C2=A0</span><span style=3D"font-size:14pt;font-weight:norma= l">as billed by Nomura, the Japanese holding company?=C2=A0 =C2=A0</span></= strong></font></div><p></p><p style=3D"font-size:14px;box-sizing:border-box= "><span style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;font-size:14pt"><font color=3D"#0000= 00" face=3D"georgia, serif">Or, as German analyst Peter Spengler suggests, = whatever =E2=80=9Cthe averted climax in the Strait of Hormuz had not brough= t about so far, might now come through =E2=80=98market forces=E2=80=99=E2= =80=9D?</font></span></p><p style=3D"font-size:14px;box-sizing:border-box">= <span style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;font-size:14pt"><font color=3D"#000000= " face=3D"georgia, serif">Let=E2=80=99s start with what really happened aft= er five hours of relatively polite discussions last Friday in Vienna. What = turned into a de facto OPEC+ meltdown was quite the game-changing plot twis= t.</font></span></p><p style=3D"font-size:14px;box-sizing:border-box"><span= style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;font-size:14pt"><font color=3D"#000000" fac= e=3D"georgia, serif">OPEC+ includes Russia, Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan. Esse= ntially,=C2=A0after enduring years of=C2=A0OPEC=C2=A0price-fixing =E2=80=93= the result of relentless U.S. pressure over Saudi Arabia =E2=80=93 while p= atiently rebuilding its foreign exchange reserves<strong style=3D"box-sizin= g:border-box">,=C2=A0</strong>Moscow saw the perfect window of opportunity = to strike, targeting the U.S. shale industry.</font></span></p><p style=3D"= font-size:14px;box-sizing:border-box"><span style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;= font-size:14pt"><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">Shares of s= ome of these U.S. producers plunged as much as 50 percent on =E2=80=9CBlack= Monday.=E2=80=9D They simply cannot survive with a barrel of oil in the $3= 0s =E2=80=93 and that=E2=80=99s where this is going. After all, these compa= nies are drowning in debt.=C2=A0</font></span></p><p style=3D"font-size:14p= x;box-sizing:border-box"><span style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;font-size:14p= t"><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">A $30 barrel of oil has = to be seen as a precious gift/stimulus package for a global economy in turm= oil =E2=80=93 especially from the point of view of oil importers and consum= ers. This is what Russia made possible.</font></span></p><p style=3D"font-s= ize:14px;box-sizing:border-box"><span style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;font-s= ize:14pt"><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">And the stimulus = may last for a while. Russia=E2=80=99s National Wealth Fund has made it cle= ar it has enough reserves (over $150 billion) to cover a budget deficit fro= m six to 10=C2=A0years =E2=80=93 even with oil at $25 a barrel. Goldman Sac= hs has already gamed a possible Brent crude at $20 a barrel.</font></span><= /p><p style=3D"font-size:14px;box-sizing:border-box"><span style=3D"box-siz= ing:border-box;font-size:14pt"><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, ser= if">As Persian Gulf traders stress, the key to what is perceived in the U<s= trong style=3D"box-sizing:border-box">.</strong>S<strong style=3D"box-sizin= g:border-box">.=C2=A0</strong>as an =E2=80=9Coil war=E2=80=9D between Mosco= w and Riyadh is mostly about derivatives. Essentially, banks won=E2=80=99t = be able to pay those speculators who hold derivative insurance against a st= eep decline in the price of oil. Added stress comes from traders panicking = with Covid-19 spreading across nations that are visibly unprepared to deal = with it.</font></span></p><p style=3D"font-size:14px;box-sizing:border-box"= ><span style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;font-size:14pt"><strong style=3D"box-= sizing:border-box"><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">Watch th= e Russian Game</font></strong></span></p><p style=3D"font-size:14px;box-siz= ing:border-box"><span style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;font-size:14pt"><font = color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">Moscow must have gamed beforehand= that Russian stocks traded in London=C2=A0<strong style=3D"box-sizing:bord= er-box">=E2=80=94=C2=A0</strong>such as Gazprom, Rosneft, Novatek and Gazpr= om Neft=C2=A0<strong style=3D"box-sizing:border-box">=E2=80=94=C2=A0</stron= g>would collapse. According to Lukoil=E2=80=99s co-owner Leonid Fedun, Russ= ia may lose up to $150 million a day from now on. The question is for how l= ong this will be acceptable.</font></span></p><p style=3D"font-size:14px;bo= x-sizing:border-box"><span style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;font-size:14pt"><= font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">Still, from the beginning Ro= sneft=E2=80=99s position was that for Russia, the deal with OPEC+was =E2=80= =9Cmeaningless=E2=80=9D and only =E2=80=9Ccleared the way=E2=80=9D for Amer= ican shale oil.</font></span></p><p style=3D"font-size:14px;box-sizing:bord= er-box"><span style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;font-size:14pt"><font color=3D= "#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">The consensus among Russian energy giants= was that the current market setup=C2=A0<strong style=3D"box-sizing:border-= box">=E2=80=94=C2=A0</strong>massive =E2=80=9Cnegative oil demand<strong st= yle=3D"box-sizing:border-box">,</strong>=E2=80=9D positive =E2=80=9Csupply = shock<strong style=3D"box-sizing:border-box">,</strong>=E2=80=9D and no swi= ng producer=C2=A0<strong style=3D"box-sizing:border-box">=E2=80=94=C2=A0</s= trong>inevitably had to crash the price of oil. They were watching, helples= sly, as the U<strong style=3D"box-sizing:border-box">.</strong>S<strong sty= le=3D"box-sizing:border-box">.=C2=A0</strong>was already selling oil for a = lower price than OPEC.</font></span></p><p style=3D"font-size:14px;box-sizi= ng:border-box"><span style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;font-size:14pt"><font c= olor=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">Moscow=E2=80=99s move against the = U<strong style=3D"box-sizing:border-box">.</strong>S<strong style=3D"box-si= zing:border-box">.=C2=A0</strong>fracking industry was payback for the Trum= p administration messing with=C2=A0<span style=3D"box-sizing:border-box"><a= href=3D"https://www.nord-stream2.com/" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;bord= er-bottom:1px dotted;text-decoration-line:none" target=3D"_blank">Nord Stre= am 2</a></span>. The inevitable, steep=C2=A0<span style=3D"box-sizing:borde= r-box"><a href=3D"https://www.oreanda.ru/en/finansy/fitch-analyst-reports-t= hreatening-devaluation-in-russia-due-to-oil-prices/article1307307/" style= =3D"box-sizing:border-box;border-bottom:1px dotted;text-decoration-line:non= e" target=3D"_blank">devaluation of the ruble</a></span>=C2=A0was gamed=C2= =A0=C2=A0<strong style=3D"box-sizing:border-box">=E2=80=94=C2=A0 </strong>a= lso considering the ruble was already low anyway.</font></span></p><p style= =3D"font-size:14px;box-sizing:border-box"><span style=3D"box-sizing:border-= box;font-size:14pt"><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">Still, = what happened post-Vienna essentially has little to do with a Russia-Saudi = trade war. The Russian Energy Ministry is=C2=A0<span style=3D"box-sizing:bo= rder-box"><a href=3D"https://tass.com/economy/1128037" style=3D"box-sizing:= border-box;border-bottom:1px dotted;text-decoration-line:none" target=3D"_b= lank">phlegmatic</a></span>: move on, nothing to see here. Riyadh, signific= antly, has been emitting signs the OPEC+ deal may be back in the cards in t= he near future. A feasible scenario is that this sort of shock therapy will= go on until 2022, and then Russia and OPEC will be back to the table to wo= rk out a new deal.</font></span></p><p style=3D"font-size:14px;box-sizing:b= order-box"><span style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;font-size:14pt"><font color= =3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">There are no definitive numbers, but t= he oil market accounts for less than 10 percent of Russia=E2=80=99s GDP (it= used to be 16 percent in 2012). Iran=E2=80=99s oil exports in 2019 plunged= by a whopping 70 percent<strong style=3D"box-sizing:border-box">,=C2=A0</s= trong>and still Tehran was able to adapt. Yet oil accounts for over 50 perc= ent of Saudi GDP. Riyadh needs oil at no less than $85 a barrel to pay its = bills. The 2020 budget, with crude priced=C2=A0at $62-63 a barrel, still ha= s a $50 billion deficit.</font></span></p><p style=3D"font-size:14px;box-si= zing:border-box"><span style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;font-size:14pt"><font= color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">Aramco says they will be offerin= g no less than 300,000 barrels of oil a day more than their =E2=80=9Cmaximu= m sustained capacity=E2=80=9D starting April 1. They say they will be able = to produce a whopping 12.3 million barrels a day.=C2=A0</font></span></p><p= style=3D"font-size:14px;box-sizing:border-box"><span style=3D"box-sizing:b= order-box;font-size:14pt"><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">P= ersian Gulf traders say openly this is unsustainable. It is. But the House = of Saud, in desperation, will be digging into their strategic reserves to d= ump as much crude as possible as soon as possible =E2=80=94 and keep the pr= ice war full tilt.=C2=A0The (oily) irony is that the top price war victims = are an industry belonging to the American protector.</font></span></p><p st= yle=3D"font-size:14px;box-sizing:border-box"><span style=3D"box-sizing:bord= er-box;font-size:14pt"><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">Saud= i-occupied Arabia is a mess.=C2=A0<em style=3D"box-sizing:border-box">The W= all Street Journal</em>=C2=A0<span style=3D"box-sizing:border-box"><a href= =3D"https://eu.freep.com/story/news/world/2020/03/07/saudi-royal-family-mem= bers-arrested-alleged-plot-oust-king/4985914002/" style=3D"box-sizing:borde= r-box;border-bottom:1px dotted;text-decoration-line:none" target=3D"_blank"= >reported</a></span>=C2=A0Friday that one of the king=E2=80=99s brothers, P= rince Ahmed bin Abdulaziz al Saud, and a nephew, Prince Mohammed bin Nayef,= two powerful Saudis, were arrested and charged with treason for allegedly = plotting against King Salman and his son, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman = (MbS).</font></span></p><p style=3D"font-size:14px;box-sizing:border-box"><= span style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;font-size:14pt"><font color=3D"#000000"= face=3D"georgia, serif">Every grain of sand in the Nefud desert knows Jare= d of Arabia Kushner=E2=80=99s whatsapp pal MbS has been de facto ruler for = the past five years, but the timing of his new purge in Riyadh speaks volum= es.</font></span></p><p style=3D"font-size:14px;box-sizing:border-box"><spa= n style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;font-size:14pt"><font color=3D"#000000" fa= ce=3D"georgia, serif">The CIA is fuming: Nayef was and remains Langley=E2= =80=99s top asset. The fact that Saudi regime spin denounced =E2=80=9CAmeri= cans=E2=80=9D as partners in a possible coup against MBS should be read as = =E2=80=9CCIA<strong style=3D"box-sizing:border-box">.</strong>=E2=80=9D It= =E2=80=99s just a matter of time before the U<strong style=3D"box-sizing:bo= rder-box">.</strong>S<strong style=3D"box-sizing:border-box">.=C2=A0</stron= g>Deep State, in conjunction with disgruntled National Guard elements, come= s for MbS=E2=80=99s head=C2=A0<strong style=3D"box-sizing:border-box">=E2= =80=94=C2=A0</strong>even as he articulates=C2=A0<span style=3D"box-sizing:= border-box"><a href=3D"https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/exclusive-saudi-c= rown-prince-plans-become-king-novembers-g20-summit" style=3D"box-sizing:bor= der-box;border-bottom:1px dotted;text-decoration-line:none" target=3D"_blan= k">taking over total power</a>=C2=A0</span>before the G-20 summit in Riyadh= next November.=C2=A0</font></span></p><p style=3D"font-size:14px;box-sizin= g:border-box"><span style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;font-size:14pt"><strong = style=3D"box-sizing:border-box"><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, se= rif">Black Hawk Down?</font></strong></span></p><p style=3D"font-size:14px;= box-sizing:border-box"><span style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;font-size:14pt"= ><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">So what happens next? Amid= a tsunami of scenarios, from New York to all points Asia, the most optimis= tic rule is that China is about to win the =E2=80=9Cpeople=E2=80=99s war=E2= =80=9D against Covid-19<strong style=3D"box-sizing:border-box">,=C2=A0</str= ong>and the latest figures confirm it. In this case global oil demand may i= ncrease by at least 480,000 barrels a day.=C2=A0</font></span></p><p style= =3D"font-size:14px;box-sizing:border-box"><span style=3D"box-sizing:border-= box;font-size:14pt"><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">Well, t= hat=E2=80=99s way more complicated. =C2=A0</font></span></p><p style=3D"fon= t-size:14px;box-sizing:border-box"><span style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;fon= t-size:14pt"><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">The game now p= oints to a confluence of Wall Street in panic; Covid-19 mass hysteria; ling= ering, myriad aftershocks of President Donald Trump=E2=80=99s global trade = mess; the U<strong style=3D"box-sizing:border-box">.</strong>S<strong style= =3D"box-sizing:border-box">.=C2=A0</strong>election circus; and political i= nstability in Europe. These interlocked crises do spell Perfect Storm. Yet = the market angle is easily explained as perhaps the beginning of the end of= the Fed pumping tens of trillions of U<strong style=3D"box-sizing:border-b= ox">.</strong>S<strong style=3D"box-sizing:border-box">.=C2=A0</strong>doll= ars into the economy through QEs and repos since 2008. Call it the calling = of the central bankers=E2=80=99 bluff.</font></span></p><p style=3D"font-si= ze:14px;box-sizing:border-box"><span style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;font-si= ze:14pt"><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">A case can be made= that the current financial panic will only subsidize when the ultimate Bla= ck Swan =E2=80=93 Covid-19 =E2=80=93 is contained. Borrowing from the famou= s Hollywood adage =E2=80=94 =E2=80=9Cno one knows anything=E2=80=9D =E2=80= =94 all bets are off. Amid thick fog, and discounting the usual amount of d= isinformation, a Rabobank analyst, among others, came up with plausible fou= r Covid-19 scenarios. He now reckons it=E2=80=99s getting=C2=A0<span style= =3D"box-sizing:border-box"><a href=3D"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/its= -getting-ugly-what-can-we-really-do-about-covid-19" style=3D"box-sizing:bor= der-box;border-bottom:1px dotted;text-decoration-line:none" target=3D"_blan= k">=E2=80=9Cugly=E2=80=9D</a></span>=C2=A0and the fourth scenario=C2=A0<str= ong style=3D"box-sizing:border-box">=E2=80=94=C2=A0</strong>the =E2=80=9Cun= thinkable=E2=80=9D=C2=A0 <strong style=3D"box-sizing:border-box">=E2=80=94= =C2=A0</strong>is not far-fetched anymore.=C2=A0</font></span></p><p style= =3D"font-size:14px;box-sizing:border-box"><span style=3D"box-sizing:border-= box;font-size:14pt"><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif">This im= plies a global economic crisis of, yes, unthinkable magnitude.</font></span= ></p><p style=3D"font-size:14px;box-sizing:border-box"><span style=3D"box-s= izing:border-box;font-size:14pt"><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, s= erif">To a great extent it will all depend on how fast China =E2=80=93 the = inescapable crucial link in the global just-in-time supply chain =E2=80=94 = gets back to a new normal, offsetting interminable weeks of serial lockdown= s.</font></span></p><p style=3D"font-size:14px;box-sizing:border-box"><span= style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;font-size:14pt"><font color=3D"#000000" fac= e=3D"georgia, serif">Despised, discriminated, demonized 24/7 by the =E2=80= =9Csystem leader,=E2=80=9D China has gone full Nietzsche =E2=80=93 about to= prove that =E2=80=9Cwhatever does not kill you makes you stronger=E2=80=9D= when it comes to a =E2=80=9Cpeople=E2=80=99s war=E2=80=9D against Covid-19= . On the U.S. front, there=E2=80=99s scant hope that the gleaming Black =E2= =80=9Chelicopter money=E2=80=9D Hawk will crash down for good. The ultimate= Black Swan will have the last word.</font></span></p><p style=3D"font-size= :14px;box-sizing:border-box"><span style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;font-size= :14pt"><font color=3D"#000000" face=3D"georgia, serif"><strong style=3D"box= -sizing:border-box">Pepe Escobar, a veteran Brazilian journalist, is the co= rrespondent-at-large for Hong Kong-based=C2=A0</strong><span style=3D"box-s= izing:border-box"><a href=3D"http://www.atimes.com/" style=3D"box-sizing:bo= rder-box;border-bottom:1px dotted;text-decoration-line:none" target=3D"_bla= nk"><em style=3D"box-sizing:border-box"><strong style=3D"box-sizing:border-= box">Asia Times</strong></em></a><strong style=3D"box-sizing:border-box">.<= /strong></span><strong style=3D"box-sizing:border-box">=C2=A0His latest boo= k is=C2=A0</strong><span style=3D"box-sizing:border-box"><strong style=3D"b= ox-sizing:border-box">=E2=80=9C</strong><a href=3D"https://www.amazon.com/2= 030-Letter-Grandson-Pepe-Escobar-ebook/dp/B0186FC99U/ref=3Dsr_1_1?ie=3DUTF8= &qid=3D1535385000&sr=3D8-1&keywords=3D2030+Pepe+Escobar" style= =3D"box-sizing:border-box;border-bottom:1px dotted;text-decoration-line:non= e" target=3D"_blank"><strong style=3D"box-sizing:border-box">2030</strong><= /a><strong style=3D"box-sizing:border-box">.=E2=80=9D</strong></span><stron= g style=3D"box-sizing:border-box">=C2=A0Follow him on=C2=A0</strong><span s= tyle=3D"box-sizing:border-box"><a href=3D"https://www.facebook.com/pepe.esc= obar.77377" style=3D"box-sizing:border-box;border-bottom:1px dotted;text-de= coration-line:none" target=3D"_blank"><strong style=3D"box-sizing:border-bo= x">Facebook</strong></a><strong style=3D"box-sizing:border-box">.</strong><= /span></font></span></p></div></div> <p></p> -- <br /> <br /> --- <br /> You received this message because you are subscribed to the Google Groups &= quot;Sid-l" group.<br /> To unsubscribe from this group and stop receiving emails from it, send an e= mail to <a href=3D"mailto:[email protected]">sid-l+unsubsc= [email protected]</a>.<br /> To view this discussion on the web visit <a href=3D"https://groups.google.c= om/d/msgid/sid-l/CACKppcwbryH3ekrChkJqnTkX6KC4xd7kjEhiRj8X%2BWaUYavVGw%40ma= il.gmail.com?utm_medium=3Demail&utm_source=3Dfooter">https://groups.google.= com/d/msgid/sid-l/CACKppcwbryH3ekrChkJqnTkX6KC4xd7kjEhiRj8X%2BWaUYavVGw%40m= ail.gmail.com</a>.<br /> --000000000000d22fcd05a1035030-- ------------=_1584410513-7785-133701 Content-Type: text/plain; charset="UTF-8" Content-Disposition: inline Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit --- To unsubscribe: <mailto:[email protected]> List help: <https://riseup.net/lists> ------------=_1584410513-7785-133701--