[L-I] BBC News on Maoist advances in Nepal

Analysis:
Maoists strike east

By
Rabindra Mishra

BBC Nepali service

The killing of 29 security force members by Maoists in
Nepal's eastern district of Bhojpur is a major blow to the Nepalese
army, which had claimed it was eroding the rebels' power.

Though few believed in the army's claim, there was a general
impression that the rebels were finding it more difficult to launch
big attacks against the joint mobilisation of the army, police and
paramilitary forces.

However, the focus of the security agencies had been in the
country's mid-west, where the rebels have their stronghold, and in the
capital, Kathmandu, and its adjoining cities.

This strategy is said to have forced the rebels to move east to
escape security operations.

The overnight attack by hundreds of rebels in Bhojpur proves
their consolidation of power there.

Military assistance

In a recent
interview with the BBC Nepali service, a senior leader and spokesman
of the Maoists, Krishna Bahadur Mahara, said they were preparing big
offensives.

If the
latest attack is the start of the campaign Mr Mahara claimed, the
Nepalese army may have to gear itself up for further, possibly bigger
assaults.

When they pulled out of the first peace talks in 2001, the
rebels made several successful attacks on army barracks, killing
hundreds of soldiers.

However, since the breakdown of the latest ceasefire in August,
that situation has changed.

The Nepalese army has received military assistance and advice
from various countries, including the United States, Britain and
India.

This has boosted the morale of the security forces.

However, the Bhojpur attack has shown that the morale of the
rebels has not eroded either.

Within the past few months, the rebels have announced the
formation of eight of the nine autonomous regional governments they
want to establish in the country.

They say that is in preparation for the takeover of the central
government in Kathmandu.

Highly critical

Neither the government nor the rebels say they have closed the
doors on peace talks.

However, unless the Maoists give up their insistence on removing
the monarchy, talks in the near future look unlikely.

King Gyanendra has sidelined all the political parties since he
dismissed the elected government and took over executive power in
August 2002.

Since then, he has tried to consolidate the power of the
monarchy.

The king timed a recent visit to the mid-west with the ninth
anniversary of the Maoist insurgency, which started in the region.

He has been visiting army headquarters and appearing in public
around the country.

All the political parties have been highly critical of his
assumption of executive power but so far he has ignored them.

The king knows that he has the full backing of the security
forces and several international powers.

That is probably what gives him the confidence to defy other
political forces.

Given this show of strength, the Maoists' dream of turning Nepal
into a republic may not materialise soon.

The major political parties, despite their criticism of the
king, have not yet opposed the institution of monarchy.

If they did change their position and join hands with the rebels
in their republican demands, the king could find himself in deep
trouble.

The student wings of some parties are now applying pressure for
a republican stance.

It is difficult to say how likely this change of policy would
be, but the king would be wise to pay heed to the warnings.

Story from
BBC NEWS:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/go/pr/fr/-/2/hi/south_asia/3529967.stm

Published:
2004/03/03 16:10:56 GMT

© BBC
MMIV

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